Indian Sugar Mills Association revises sugar production estimate for 2021-22

News: Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has revised sugar production estimate for 2021-22 to 35 million tonnes (MT) from its earlier estimate of 33.3 MT. Simultaneously, it has revised its sugar export estimate to 9 MT from earlier 7.5 MT. At the same time global raw sugar prices surpassed 20 cents / lb level on Friday

Views: Given the strong global sugar prices, accessing sugar exports will not be a difficult task. Considering more than 8 MT of sugar has already been contracted, closing inventory would still end below 7 MT by September 2022. Further, crushing season is expected to end by mid-May 2022 & domestic sugar prices should follow global price movement with expected uptick in domestic sugar prices after the sugar season gets over

Impact: Neutral