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Nifty: seventh consecutive weekly decline amid domestic and global headwinds

ICICIdirect Research 25 Sep 2026 DISCLAIMER

Global market sentiment was under pressure this week, as debt market has been under a storm since last few months due to rising bond yields, rate hike by global central bankers, rising crude oil prices and rising inflation concerns. Domestically IRDAI’s consultation paper triggers sharp reaction across BFSI ecosystem. As a result, the Nifty concluded the week with its seventh consecutive weekly decline, settling at 23,115, down 1%.

The broader market also reflected profit-taking pressure, with midcap indices declining by 2%, while small-cap indices slipped by 1%. Sectorally, the realty, pharmaceuticals sectors demonstrated relative resilience. In contrast, the IT and financials sectors face headwinds, contributing to the overall negative momentum.

What we expect:

  • The index has now entered a critical zone near the long-term rising trendline support at 22,600, a key confluence level that has historically acted as a floor during previous corrections. This level, combined with the extended duration, points toward a potential shift in market dynamics.
  • The current seven-week correction aligns with historical patterns. Analysis of the past two decades reveals that there have been only five instances where the Nifty experienced a correction lasting more than six weeks, with the maximum duration being seven weeks during the 2008 and 2020 market cycles, after which momentum indicators typically signaled oversold rebounds.
  • For the upcoming truncated week, we maintain a cautious stance and avoid aggressive shorting at current oversold levels; a decisive close above last week’s high ~ 23,500 (which has been missing for last 7 weeks) would confirm a meaningful rebound.
  • A stabilization in crude oil prices driven by potential geopolitical de-escalation could relieve inflationary pressures and spur market recovery.

Key Monitorables:

  • U.S. GDP Data
  • India Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
  • Monthly Auto Sales Figures

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