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Geopolitical tensions continued to dampen market sentiment, leading to flat Nifty

ICICIdirect Research 30 Apr 2026 DISCLAIMER

Geopolitical tensions continued to dampen market sentiment, leading the Nifty to conclude a volatile week on a flat note, settling at ~ 24000.

While the benchmark remained stagnant, the broader market showed resilience; Midcap and Small-cap indices outshone the frontline index with gains of 0.6% and 2.4%, respectively.

Performance across sectors was mixed, with Pharma, Oil & Gas, and Realty emerging as top performers, while Financials faced profit booking

Stock specific action continued with stocks largely reacting to quarterly earnings.

Most of the companies in the manufacturing set up reported in-line performance in Q4FY26. They remain upbeat on demand prospects with limited impact seen from ongoing geo-political issues. On the margins front, they did indicate about rise in RM costs primarily on account of rise in crude derivatives and INR depreciation, however remained confident of price hike transmission to mitigate large part of RM rise impact

In aggregate, corporate earnings have growth lower double digit till date in Q4FY26.

Key highlight:
The spike in crude oil prices weighed on market sentiment consequently putting pressure on Indian Rupee. As a result, index pared intra-week gains and continued with its healthy consolidation after witnessing 11% up-move off April low of 22,182.

What we expect:
We expect prolongation of healthy consolidation within the 23,400–24,500 range. This sideways movement would help to cool off overbought conditions seen post 11% rally off April low of 22,181 and help index to find sustainable base amidst global uncertainty that would eventually pave the way for next leg of up move
The Nifty 500 vs. Nifty 100 ratio chart has shown significant improvement after establishing a higher base above a multi-year breakout level. This trend suggests that the broader market is poised to outperform the large caps, signaling broadening of the rally going ahead.

Key Monitorable:
Development on geopolitical conflict
Assembly election outcome
Auto sales
Crude Oil

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