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  • CMP : 812.4 Chg : 2.10 (0.26%)
  • Target : 1,475.0 (26.61%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

13 Nov 2022

Weak show; InvIT launch – a near term trigger!

About The Stock

GR Infraprojects Ltd (GRIL) is a leading player in the roads and highways sector having overall order book size of ₹ 16,222 crore.

  • The company has delivered 26.6% revenue CAGR during FY16-22, well-complemented by 33.6% EBITDA CAGR and 39% PAT CAGR
  • Prudent management, lean balance sheet position, healthy return ratios
Q2FY23 Results

GRIL reported weak set of numbers during Q2FY23

  • Standalone revenue grew merely by 4.6% YoY to ₹ 1,777.2 crore impacted by depleted executable order book position and prolonged rainy season
  • EBITDA margin moderated to 14.6% (down 172 bps YoY) due to higher input cost, elevated level of CSR expense, and higher provisions. Effectively, EBITDA at ₹ 260 crore, was down 6.5% YoY
  • PAT stood at ₹ 164.3 crore (up 0.8% YoY)
What should Investors do?

GRIL’s share price has de-grown by ~33% over the past one and half years (from ~₹ 1,730 in July 2021 to ₹ 1,163 levels in November 2022).

  • We have BUY rating on the stock as asset monetisation through InvIT will boost scalability, ahead.
Target Price and Valuation

We value GRIL at a target price of ₹ 1,475

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • GRIL is likely to be one of the major recipients of thriving roads, railways and power transmission segments. Healthy order inflows to aid its order book position.
  • Strong order book position, receipt of appointed date in most of its projects, and execution pick-up to translate into 12.4% topline CAGR over FY22-24E
  • Current order mix with built-in raw material price variation clauses in most of its contracts provides margin sustainability at ~15-16%
  • Double-digit return ratios, and lean balance sheet position
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides GRIL, we like PSP Projects in Infra space

  • Play on strong execution and lean balance sheet
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 720/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 4,950.2 6,027.8 7,244.5 7,919.2 18.0 8,387.4 9,997.4 12.4
EBITDA 1,007.4 1,241.3 1,310.4 1,281.1 19.3 1,333.0 1,608.4 12.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.4 20.6 18.1 16.2 - 15.9 16.1 -
Net Profit 595.7 688.7 780.6 760.8 6.0 772.8 928.9 10.5
EPS (|) 61.6 71.2 80.7 78.7 - 79.9 96.1 -
P/E (x) 18.9 16.3 14.4 14.8 - 14.6 12.1 -
Price / Book (x) 5.3 4.0 3.1 2.6 - 2.2 1.9 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.6 9.2 9.2 9.4 - 9.3 7.8 -
RoCE (%) 29.9 28.7 24.0 19.7 - 17.9 18.5 -
RoE (%) 27.8 24.4 21.7 17.5 - 15.2 15.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Order book at | 15,630 crore; inflows guidance at | 15,000 crore

GRIL’s order book (OB) as on 30th September 2022 stood at | 15,630 crore, majorly contributed by Roads- HAM (85%), Roads- EPC (9%), Railways (4%) and Transmission (2%) sector. Additionally, the OB has included the value of one L-1 Project amounting to | 592 crore. Considering these, its order book value currently stands at | 16,222 crore (1.9x order book to TTM bill). Going forward, the company has guided for overall order inflows of ~| 15,000 crore during FY23, to be driven by a strong order pipeline in roads segment and growing opportunities in the other infrastructure verticals such as metros, ropeways, and power transmission sector. On the execution front, the management has retained their guidance of 5-10% topline growth for FY2            3E (vs 9.3% posted in FY22). Also, its operating margin is likely to sustain at 15-16% going ahead with better product mix.

Lean balance sheet despite equity commitments; monetisation of HAM assets to free capital

GRIL’s balance sheet has remained lean backed by its prudent strategy to mainly focus on an asset light business model and higher focus on cash generation. At the end of Q2 FY23, its gross debt, cash and cash equivalent at the standalone level stood at | 1,170.3 crore, | 290.3 crore, respectively. The net D/E remained steady at ~0.2x over the past few years. Going forward, it has total equity requirement of | 1,880 crore towards under-execution and L1 projects over the next 2-3 years. Despite these, we expect its debt to remain at comfortable levels with healthy operating cash flow generation arising from improved profitability and, better cash flow management. Also, GRIL maintains optimal mix of interest bearing liabilities (mix of debentures, term loan, working capital loan) aiding towards nominal interest outgo. Further, the company is looking to monetise its HAM portfolio via InvIT, which would free its invested capital.

Key conference call takeaways

  • GRIL has guided for ~5-10% topline growth during FY23 due to a) depleting executable order book position and b) delays in receipt of appointed date in certain projects. However, the management expects topline growth would normalize to 15-20% CAGR over next couple of years with ramp up in execution given a) elevated level of inflows, b) strong order book position and c) receipt of appointed in most of the projects.
  • GRIL has recognized one-off income (early completion bonus) amounting to ~|6 crore during Q2 FY23. However, the company recognized higher CSR expense (| 5 crore) and higher provisions for long term debtors (| 12 crore) during Q2 FY23. These along with higher input cost has impacted EBITDA margin to some extent. Going forward, the management has guided for 15-16% core operating margin (excluding bonuses) in FY23 to be aided by higher contribution from HAM projects and softening in commodity prices.
  • GRIL has identified the bid pipeline (HAM projects) of ~| 55,000 crore from NHAI side which is likely to get awarded by FY23-end. Additionally, pipeline in the Power transmission stands healthy at~| 5,000-6,000 crore.
  • GRIL had submitted their bid for projects valued at ~| 16,450 crore in the field of roads, ropeway, and metros during Q2 FY23. While the company has not tasted any success for submitted bids till now, it is expecting favourable results in tendered projects.
  • Overall, the company has guided for | 15,000 crore of order inflows during FY23 largely targeting from Roads (| 10,000-12,000 crore), and railways, metro, ropeway, and power transmission (| 3,000- 5,000 crore) segments.
  • The management has indicated towards decline in competitive intensity to decline ahead as MoRTH/NHAI is gradually removing relaxations provided due to Covid-19 pandemic. This is likely to aid organized road developers in securing more projects at sensible bid project costs.
  • Out of its total order book position of | 16,222 crore, orders worth ~| 10,100 crore are currently under execution while the company is awaiting appointed date in balance jobs (6 HAM projects having EPC value of ~| 5,500 crore). It expects receipts of appointed date in majority of newly secured HAM projects by FY23-end. This is likely aid overall execution pace ahead.
  • GRIL has achieved financial closure for six HAM projects post Q1 FY23 namely a) GR Ujjain Badnawar Highway Pvt Ltd (FC secured date: August 8, 2022, b) GR Govindpur Rajura Highway Pvt Ltd (August 5, 2022), c) GR Bamni Highway Pvt Ltd (September 19, 2022), d) GR Bhimasar Bhuj Highway Pvt Ltd (October 12, 2022, e) GR Madanapalli Pileru Highway Pvt Ltd (October 15, 2022) and f) GR Bandikui Jaipur Highway Pvt Ltd (October 20, 2022).
  • GRIL has secured appointed date in two HAM projects recently for a) GR Ujjain Badnawar Highway Pvt Ltd, and b) GR Govindpur Rajura Highway Pvt Ltd. With these, the company has 9 operational HAM projects, 9 HAM projects under construction stage whereas awaiting AD in 6 projects.
  • GRIL had secured its maiden power transmission project during FY22 namely “transmission system for evacuation of power from RE projects in Rajgarh (1500 MW) SEZ in Madhya Pradesh”. The work on the project commenced during May’22 (EPC value: | 370 crore) having 18 months of completion period. The management expects margin to be similar with its road EPC projects
  • During Q1 FY23, GRIL informed that a team of Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) conducted a search at the residence of Vinod Kumar Agarwal (Chairman), the corporate office at Gurugram (Haryana) and various other sites. It has been alleged that the NHAI officials have favored GRIL in a road contract located in the north eastern region (executed in 2018) for processing and clearance of final bills, getting bank guarantees and release of discharge certificate. As per the management, the case is still under investigation wherein the company is supporting CBI’s team with relevant information/documents. It expects to come clean out of the investigation. However, the company has got letter from MoRTH for debarment for a period of one month w.e.f. mid-November 2022 for which they have submitted their response.
  • Bharat Highways lnvIT, sponsored by GRIL, has been granted Certificate of Registration by SEBI as an Infrastructure Investment Trust. At present, the technical due diligence in SPVs are under progress and likely to get concluded over next few months. With this, the company is looking to monetise its 7 operational NHAI’s HAM projects during initial launch stage (equity investment: ~| 900-1,000 crore), which would free its invested capital going forward. The company is targeting to launch InVIT by FY23-end.
  • Net working capital at the end of Q2 FY23 has increased to 85 days (receivable: 31 days; inventory+WIP: 70 days; payable: 31 days) as compared to 77 days at Q1 FY23-end. It expects working capital to hover in the range of 70-85 days.
  • GRIL has total equity requirement of | 1,880 crore (~| 200 crore infused during H1 FY23; | 450 crore, | 700 crore, | 700 crore during rest-FY23, FY24 and FY25) towards already secured HAM and power transmission projects.
  • GRIL has incurred capex to the tune of | 215 crore during H1 FY23 and has guided for overall ~| 350 crore of capex during FY23 required to be spent for newer projects and jobs in newer targeting segments.

 

GRIL has built an efficient business model powered by robust execution skills and delivered strong revenue growth with elevated margins. While outcome of CBI’s investigation to remain key overhang on stock price in the near term, its outlook fundamentally remains bright with decent order book position, healthy revenue visibility, lean balance sheet structure, comfortable working capital cycle and strong return ratios. Additionally, better-than-expected order inflows and monetisation of HAM assets can act as a positive trigger. We maintain BUY rating on the stock with a TP of | 1,475/share (based on SoTP based valuation). We value core business at 14x FY24 P/E (reduced target multiple risk arisen due to muted inflows at YTD level and lower executable order book) and HAM projects at 1x equity invested.

Disclaimer

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