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Semaglutide trend - despite monthly fluctuations. Long term prospects intact

ICICIdirect Research 10 Jul 2026 DISCLAIMER

With regards to the recent news articles mentioning slowdown or plateauing of the Semaglutide markets, we believe it’s still early days to determine Semaglutide trend given that there was a significant push up to launch the product post patent expiry in late March. The market is still evolving and the penetration in tier II, tier III towns is still taking time.
Strategically, we continue to expect Obesity care as an altogether new therapy category to emerge given that ~18 crore people in India are either overweight or obese, which is second highest globally.
Many of these people are leaving with certain co-morbidities encompassing diabetes cardiac problems, chronic kidney disease among others. Note that most of the players are pitching semaglutide to diabetologists, cardiologists among others and the acceptance from them will be a gradual process.
After an initial rush and push, we expect 7-8 large players with deep pockets to dominate the market which is expected to grow at +10% on a steady state basis.
With regards to the recent development in the Semaglutide market, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories said commercial supplies of its semaglutide product will be delayed due to an issue with the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). We expect a dent of ~6-7% in the FY27 estimated revenues and EBITDA. The managements expects the issue to be transient with expected normalcy to return in October-November 2026.
Our top picks in this space are Dr. Reddy’s Lab - ₹1460; Torrent Pharma - ₹5100; Zydus Lifesciences - ₹1315 and Abbott India - ₹32400  

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