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FMCG companies likely to post relatively better performance in the backdrop of inflated input prices

ICICIdirect Research 10 Jul 2026 DISCLAIMER

FMCG companies gave a picture of better performance in Q1FY27 in the backdrop of middle-eastern crisis, which fuelled crude prices and other commodities.
Marico, Godrej Consumer Products and Dabur are expected to report double digit revenue growth (in range of 10-20%YoY) with volume growth expected to remain at high single digit to low double digit.
India business remained resilient with most categories (including summer portfolio) delivering stable performance thereby aiding high single digit volume growth for most companies.
Despite spike in the crude oil/crude derivative prices coupled with increase in the other key input prices, the companies are expected to deliver double digit EBIDTA growth (in the range of 10-14%) on back of calibrated price hikes, left over inventory of low-cost input and operating efficiencies.
Outlook: FMCG companies more or less sailed through the uncertainties caused by middle-eastern war in Q1FY27. Key monitorable going ahead would be impact of El-Nino on the rural consumption. EBIDTA margins are expected to gradually improve in the quarters ahead on back of correction in the crude and other input prices.
View: We continue to prefer companies in food business and having portfolio tilted towards D2C products and hence we continue to like Nestle India, Tata Consumer Products and Marico in the FMCG space.

Performance snapshot

 

Revenues (Rs cr.)

Store

Companies

Q1FY27E#

YoY%

Addition

Total

Titan Company

17,049

39%

33

1227

Kalyan Jewellers

10,030

38%

17

524

Senco Gold

2922

60%

8

208

PNG Jewellers

2418

41%

-

78

Jewellers outshined in Q1FY27
Despite global uncertainties, inflated gold prices and 28 days of Adhik mass, Branded jewellery companies continued to outshine in Q1FY27 with most companies delivering strong growth in the range of 35-60%.
Titan continues to lead the space with 39% growth in the jewellery business revenues with studded and plain gold jewellery growing in mid-thirties. Along with Jewellery business, Titan also registered strong growth of 23% each in its watches and eyecare business.
Amongst the other jewellery players Kalyan Jewellers, Senco Gold and PNG Jewellers registered revenue growth of 38%, 61% and 41% respectively driven by double digit same-store-sales growth.
Outlook: Q2 might see some seasonal softness. However, the companies are gearing up for pre-festive and pre-wedding season sales. Also falling gold prices will provide some breather to the jewellery companies to witness some recovery in the volumes. Titan remains our top pick in the space. We also like D2C jewellery player such as Bluestone Jewellery, which is likely to post 40%+ revenue growth and stable profitability performance in Q1FY27.
 
Performance snapshot                                                        Rs cr

 

Revenues (Rs cr.)

Store

Companies

Q1FY27E#

YoY%

Addition

Total

Titan Company

17,049

39%

33

1227

Kalyan Jewellers

10,030

38%

17

524

Senco Gold

2922

60%

8

208

PNG Jewellers

2418

41%

-

78

# Revenue is calculated on base of pre quarter updates 

Discretionary consumption maintained strong growth momentum in Q1FY27
Jewellery players delivered strong growth in the range of 35-60%.
The Phoenix mills pre-quarter update indicates of strong improvement in the retail consumption, which stood at 35% in Q1FY27 improved from 31% in Q4FY26 and 15% in Q2FY25.
The phoenix mills hotel properties – St Regis, Mumbai and Courtyard by Marriot, Agra registered RevPAR growth of 15% YoY and 23% YoY respectively in Q1FY27. Indian Hotels Company in its media interaction indicated of achieving double digit RevPar growth in Q1. Thus, hotel companies overall are expected to post good performance on back of low base (in May,25) and recovery in room demand after lull Mar,26.
D2C players such as Honasa Consumer and Nykaa Fashion registered strong revenue growth of 25-30% in Q1FY27.
View: Above performances indicates that discretionary consumption continues to lead the domestic consumption growth. Growing middle-income group and rising trend of online purchases by Gen-Z population, we expect this trend to continue in the coming years. In the discretionary space along with selected jewellery picks, we like Arvind Fashion, Indian Hotel Companies and ITC Hotels.   

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