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Auto Volumes-September 2026: Broadly good show as base effect kicks in, CV outshines!

ICICIdirect Research 01 Oct 2026 DISCLAIMER

India’s automotive OEMs posted healthy volume prints for September 2026 with volumes growing double digit on YoY basis across PV & CVs while coming in a tad muted in the 2-W and tractor space. This is amidst GST rate cut and early festive season onset led pent up volumes in the base month i.e., Sept’25. Navratri last year commenced from 22nd Sept’25.
In terms of segments, CV continue to surprise positively wherein healthy growth was witnessed in MHCV Trucks segment with continuous recovery in Passenger (Bus) segment.
Maruti set the bar high, outperforming in the PV space while Tata Motors CV led the growth charge in the CV segment. TVS Motors outperformed in the 2W domain. Exports continue to do well across segments and players.
In the 2-W pack, TVS motors led the growth charge with volumes growing 23% YoY at 6.5 lakh units. Eicher Motors (Royal Enfield) performed well with volumes growing 8% YoY at 1.34 lakh units. Bajaj Auto however reported a blended ~5% YoY volume growth where domestic de-grew 12% and growth was supported by exports (up by 34%). Bajaj Auto faced supply chain and logistical issues which resulted in lower-than-expected volumes (Impact of 40K units).
In the PV space, Maruti Suzuki reported healthy volume growth of ~24.5% YoY at ~2.3 lakh units, outperforming the space, while M&M saw a steady growth of ~14% at ~64k units. Tata Motors PV’s EV volumes stood at 15,384 units (up ~67% YoY) amidst an overall volume growth of 15% YoY at ~70k units. Volume for Hyundai was at ~78K units, up 11% YoY.
In the CV segment, Tata motors CV reported healthy volumes of ~51k units, up ~42% YoY. While volumes at VECV arm of Eicher Motors were up by ~49% YoY at ~11k units. Ashok Leyland volumes grew 28% at ~24k units.
In tractor space, M&M reported volumes of ~52.1k units, down 21% YoY while Escorts Kubota reported a decline of ~17% at ~15k units. Industry is expected to grow single digit in FY27E amidst high base of FY26 and Monsoon season 2026 ending with a deficiency of 13% of LPA.
Most of the OEM’s are operating at peak utilization levels and retails have been holding up well. On a high base, H2 volume growth is expected to taper down, however with healthy growth in the H1, industry is well poised to clock 8-10% volume growth for whole of FY27. This shall be a new high for the domestic auto space.
The key monitorable now shifts to the upcoming festive season. Given the consistent positive momentum, we turn incrementally positive on the CV space with our top bet as Tata Motors Ltd (Rating: BUY; target: ₹ 550) in the OEM space. While playing on the same theme we like Bharat Forge (Rating: BUY, target: ₹ 2,475) in the auto ancillary space.  

 

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