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Metals: Outperformance galore amid rise in metal prices; expect a robust quarter

ICICIdirect Research 17 Apr 2026 DISCLAIMER

In the ferrous segment, government’s imposition of a 12% safeguard duty on steel imports led to an increase in domestic steel prices by ~₹3,500/ton in Q4FY26 on QoQ basis.

However, a $10-15/ton rise in coking coal prices and higher logistics and freight costs amid geopolitical tensions are likely to limit profitability gains, with EBITDA/ton expected to improve by ~₹1,500-2,000/tonne for the industry on QoQ basis. Steel Players with better operating leverage and cost efficiency could achieve gains of ~₹2,500-3,000/ton in Q4FY26.

In non-ferrous segment, aluminium/zinc/silver prices rose 13%/2%/59% QoQ, supporting profitability, especially for aluminium players. However, gains may be limited amid substantial portion of volumes being hedged at lower prices and the recent uptick in coal costs.

Overall, in the metals & mining space we prefer the ferrous space in the near to medium term.

Stocks Preferred – Tata Steel, Sail

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