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Hidden Gem - Goodluck India (Target Price: ₹ 1,500, Market Cap: ~₹ 4,193 crore; Upside: 19%)

ICICIdirect Research 30 Apr 2026 DISCLAIMER

Goodluck India is engaged in manufacturing a precision-engineered steel products with ~5 lakh tons annual capacity, catering to high-growth sectors such as automotive, railways, defence, aerospace, solar, and infrastructure.
It has diversified portfolio including cold rolled sheets and pipes, precision tubes, engineering structures, fabrication, and forgings.
The company has been strategically shifting towards value-added products to enhance margins and improve profitability. This includes: 1) commissioning of hydraulic tube capacity in FY25 catering to automobile and construction equipment sectors 2) Entering into solar tracker tubes and transmission structures for the renewable energy sector.
Additionally, the government’s plan to develop ~4,000 km of high-speed rail corridors, with an outlay of ₹16 lakh crore, offers a significant opportunity of ~1.75 lakh tons to the company, which has supplied its material in marquee projects such as Mumbai-Ahmedabad Bullet Train.
With continued focus on high value-added products and expansion into new segments, EBITDA per ton for its core business is expected to increase significantly, rising by ₹2,227/ton to ₹9,250/ton by FY28E.
Notably, the company has entered the defence manufacturing space, with an industrial license of producing 155 mm artillery shells.
It has commissioned 1.5 lakh shells capacity in Q4FY26 and plans to further expand to 4 lakh shells annually by early CY27, with a capex of ₹400-500 crore.
This positions company to capitalize on strong domestic demand and rising export opportunities, particularly in Europe amid increasing defence spending.
With this, we estimate the defence segment to generate revenue of ~₹817 crore in FY28, thereby contributing ~14% to the company’s revenue. Moreover, it is expected to realize EBITDA margins of ~27% by FY28E from defence segment, contributing a healthy ~31% to the company’s EBITDA.
Thus, the company is set to chart a healthy growth trajectory, driven by an increasing share of value-added products in its core business and its foray into the high-growth defence segment, which offers a lucrative margin profile. With an attractive valuation of ~8x EV/EBITDA on FY28E, the outlook remains compelling.
We have a BUY rating on Goodluck India with a SOTP-based target price of ₹1,500.

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