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News: The total electricity volume on the exchanges in January 2023 were at 824.5 crore units, up 9% on YoY and 4% MoM basis. The overall volume on the Exchange during the month was 863.9 crore units, up 2% on MoM basis. The Day-Ahead Market volume decreased from 500.1 crore units in December 2022 to 489.3 crore units in January 2023, i.e 2% decline on MoM basis. The Day Ahead Market volume was lower by 7% on YoY basis due to high prices resulting from a constrained supply scenario, which led to high spot e-auction coal prices during the month compared to the same month last year. The Real-Time Electricity Market achieved 210.2 crore units during the month, registering 33% YoY and 19% MoM growth. The Term-Ahead Market (TAM) traded 90.2 crore units during the month, an impressive increase of 131% on YoY basis and 10% on MoM basis. IEX Green Market, comprising the Green Day-Ahead and Green Term-Ahead Market segments, achieved 34.7 crore units, growing 24% on YoY basis
Views: For last three months volumes have somewhat hit a floor and are in a range, which clearly indicates the declining trend in arrested. However, the clearing prices will be the lead indicator for any meaningful recovery in volumes, going ahead. We believe the clearing prices will stay firm atleast till Q1FY24E given high demand season till then. From a structural perspective, IEX has demonstrated strong market share across all its products despite new competition coming in and capability to introduce new products and diversify into different platforms (Gas and carbon credits), which will help achieve strong growth in future
Impact: Neutral