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  • CMP : 698.0 Chg : 1.55 (0.22%)
  • Target : 525.0 (4.79%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

30 Oct 2022

Revenue, EBITDA margin guidance revised downward

About The Stock

Intellect Design Arena (Intellect) provides software products to retail, corporate banking, insurance & treasury.

  • Intellect is in a transition from a product company to a platform company
  • The company generates 55% of revenues from developed markets and the rest from emerging markets
  • Recently, it saw a turnaround in margins (from 5% in FY20 to 25.1% in FY22)
Q2FY23 Results:

Intellect reported weak numbers in Q2FY23.

  • Revenue was down 2.5% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins declined ~570 bps QoQ to 15.9%
  • Ratio of deals to funnel declined to 44.4%
What should Investors do?

Intellect’s share price has grown by ~3.9x over the past five years (from ~₹ 130 in October 2017 to ~₹ 501 levels in October 2022).

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value Intellect at ₹ 525 i.e. 18x P/E on FY25E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong deal wins as well as continued healthy funnel are expected to aid future revenue growth
  • Improving quality of revenues (licence + AMC + Cloud) from 46% in FY20 to 57% in FY22) bode well for long term revenue growth
  • The company is making investments to improve the quarterly revenue run rate to US$90-100 mn in 10-12 quarters from now
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Intellect, in our IT coverage we also like Newgen.

  • Strong logo additions with continuous focus on enhancing annuity revenues would aid 16.2% revenue growth over FY22-25E

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 445

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 1,346.9 1,497.5 1,878.2 15.5 2,186.1 2,387.5 2,558.6 10.9
EBITDA 70.8 354.8 472.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 5.3 23.7 25.1 - 20.0 20.4 20.9 -
Net Profit 16.0 262.8 349.1
EPS (|) 1.2 19.6 25.1 - 23.8 26.5 29.1 -
P/E 420.2 25.6 19.9 - 21.0 18.9 17.2 -
RoNW (%) 1.0 18.9 19.3 - 15.4 14.7 13.9 -
RoCE (%) 2.1 20.2 22.7 - 17.8 17.0 16.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Reported revenue of | 527.5 crore for the quarter, down 2.5% QoQ. The company indicated that there was an impact of US$6.1 mn on revenue out of which US$2.9 million (mn) was on account of shifting of the contract from product to platform while US$3.1 mn was on account of one of the deals, which was closed but revenue for the same was was not booked in Q2 (which is likely to be recognised in Q3). The company also indicated that depreciation of the GBP against the dollar impacted dollar revenue of the company for Q2 (not disclosed dollar revenue for Q2)
  • SAAS revenues (22.6% of mix) increased 35.4% YoY to | 119 crore while license revenues (lumpy in nature) declined 21.8% YoY to | 68 crore. AMC revenues grew 10.6% YoY to | 90 crore while implementation revenue reported 27.9% YoY growth to | 251 crore
  • License linked revenues (License+ SAAS+AMC). i.e. 53% of revenue mix reported YoY growth of 8.1% to | 277 crore. There was moderation of license linked revenues
  • The company indicated that though the funnel remains steady at US$818 mn, up 1.6% QoQ, deal conversion is slowing down (44% currently vs. 50% a couple of quarters back). Intellect, during the quarter, won 14 new deals including nine platform deals. The company’s destiny deals increased by two during the quarter taking it to 66. However, the average size of destiny deals declined to US$5.5 mn from US$6.2 mn in Q1FY23
  • The company indicated the following factors impacting its growth i) demand environment is slowing down, ii) clients are taking longer for decision making, iii) deals sizes have either shrunken or clients demand stretched deals to conserve cash on their side. It mentioned that there has been a change in the client evaluation process for vendors where earlier decision making was rather quick (through dance & drama sessions) while now clients demand on site validation and run though of the product for some time before taking the final decision. Intellect further indicated that destiny deals are taking even longer to get closed due to the longer process of selection by clients, which is about four to six months. It is also indicated that since it is now aiming for large size deals and competing with some of the large peers like Thought Machine & Temenos, the timeline is longer
  • It expects the issues mentioned above to have an impact for a few quarters before settling down. Hence, it is now guiding for ~15% dollar revenue growth for FY23 (vs. earlier guidance of 20% growth)
  • EBITDA for the quarter declined sharply by 28.2% QoQ to | 84 crore while EBITDA margins for the quarter declined ~570 bps QoQ to 15.9%. The company indicated that the decline in margin was due to negative operating leverage. Intellect indicated it gives quarterly wage hike instead of annual wage hike & wage hike in Q3 & Q4 will be similar to one rolled out in H1. It will incur additional cost on employee addition particularly in sales & marketing team to the tune of US$2 mn & US$3 mn in Q3 & Q4, respectively. The company further indicated that it will likely incur ~| 3 crore on marketing spend on SIBOS event where Intellect will be participating in Q3. The company is now guiding ~20% EBITDA margins for FY23 vs. 22-23% range guided earlier
  • The company mentioned that they used to incur R&D expenses to the tune of | 120 crore on an annual basis. However, it is now indicating | 150 crore due to rupee depreciation against dollar. The company capitalised | 35-40 crore this quarter and is line what they indicated earlier
  • Intellect indicated that operating cash flow for H1 was down due to i) bonus payout since it grew 27% in FY22, ii) travel costs increase, iii) continued elevated employee expenses
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)  Q1FY22  QoQ (%)    Comments
Revenue 527.5 452.1 16.7 541.3 -2.5   The company indicated that it lost potential revenue of US$ 6 mn during the quarter
Employee expenses 268.0 226.8 18.2 265.5 0.9   Employee cost includes | 11.8 crore of Esop compensation for Q2
               
Gross Margin 259.6 225.4 15.2 275.8 -5.9    
Gross margin (%) 49.2 49.8 -65 bps 51.0 -175 bps    
Other expenses 175.6 107.2 63.8 158.8 10.6    
               
EBITDA 84.0 118.2 -29.0 117.0 -28.2    
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.9 26.1 -1022 bps 21.6 -570 bps   EBITDA declined due to muted revenue growth & higher operating costs
Depreciation & amortisation 29.5 23.7 24.3 28.1 4.9    
EBIT 54.5 94.5 -42.3 88.9 -38.7    
EBIT Margin (%) 10.3 20.9 -1057 bps 16.4 -609 bps    
Other income 10.9 0.1   9.8 11.6    
PBT 65.4 94.6 -30.8 98.7 -33.7    
Tax paid 16.2 10.8 49.2 24.2 -33.3    
PAT 45.8 79.2 -42.2 68.8 -33.4    

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