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NTPC (Target : Rs 480; Upside: 24%)

ICICIdirect Research 29 May 2026 DISCLAIMER

NTPC Limited reported standalone Q4FY26 revenue from operations of ₹43,111 crore, down 1.8% YoY, while EBITDA increased 11.1% YoY to ₹12,504 crore. EBITDA margin expanded sharply to 29.0% versus 25.6% in Q4FY25, supported by improved operating leverage and lower fuel-related pressure. PAT surged 51.4% YoY to ₹8,747 crore.
During Q4FY26, NTPC generated 91.05 BU of electricity versus 95.20 BU in Q4FY25, while coal PLF stood at 76.2%. The key fall in generation is the back down on account of higher solar generation (cheaper source of electricity) and lower than expected demand on account of erratic weather conditions in Q4FY26.
NTPC is rapidly transforming into a diversified energy company through large-scale investments across renewables, battery energy storage systems (BESS), pumped storage projects, nuclear power and green hydrogen. The company has planned renewable capex of ₹35,800 crore in FY27, ₹56,000 crore in FY28 and ₹48,000 crore in FY29 through NGEL, alongside development of nearly 18 GW pumped storage pipeline and 5 GWh battery storage systems at thermal stations. NTPC is also progressing on strategic projects such as the Pudimadaka Green Hydrogen Hub, coal gasification initiatives and the 2.8 GW Mahi Banswara nuclear project, which collectively strengthen long-term diversification and future earnings visibility.
The company will witness strong capacity addition of 8 GW each in renewable side whereas thermal side will witness capacity addition of 1070MW and 1460 MW respectively, over FY27-28E. We expect Revenue/PAT to grow by 10/7% CAGR over FY26-FY28E. We maintain our BUY rating on NTPC target pegged at ₹480 per share (based on SOTP Valuations).

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