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Market likely to consolidate in broader range amid volatility


Equity benchmark witnessed largely a lackluster week amid stock specific action and settled the truncated week with marginal gains. The Nifty index relatively outperformed the Broader market as it gained 1.5%. Meanwhile, beaten down Infra & Realty index witnessed pickup activity where it gained, 3% and 3.5% respectively for the week
What to expect: In the upcoming week, we expect volatility to remain elevated tracking geopolitical worries wherein Nifty is likely to consolidate in the broader range of 24500-23500 zone. Only sustained close above 24500 will further fuel the rally towards the psychological mark of 25000. Supports are placed at 23800-23500 zone.
May mayhem: There has been an ancient market saying of “sell in May and go away”. However, the historical data suggests that the Nifty has witnessed positive returns in 9 out of 12 years (2013-2024) with an average return of 2.1%. This makes us believe that any dip amid volatility should be capitalized a buying opportunity.
Market Breadth: The current up move is backed by the improvement in market breadth as well. The percentage of stocks above 50 and 200 days SMA have jumped to 70% and 30% after bottoming out at bearish extreme (at 7%) in last month. The across sector participation bodes well for durability on ongoing rally.
Key monitorable which would act as tailwind:
- Bilateral Trade Agreement between India and US
- Continuation of FII's inflow
- Further strengthening of Rupee post 1.5% of correction in last week augurs well for equity market.
- Decline in Brent crude oil prices
Gold: Gold has corrected 8% since setting fresh high of $3509.90/oz in Apr-25. Additionally, the rising hopes for President Trump’s administration signing trade deals in near term has reduced demand for safe heaven assets. Hence, temporary breather post 35% of up-move cannot be ruled out wherein psychological mark of $3000 would act as key support.
Disclaimer – I ICICI Securities Ltd. ( I-Sec). Registered office of I-Sec is at ICICI Securities Ltd. - ICICI Venture House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025, India, Tel No : 022 - 6807 7100. I-Sec is acting as a distributor to solicit bond related products. All disputes with respect to the distribution activity, would not have access to Exchange investor redressal forum or Arbitration mechanism. The contents herein above shall not be considered as an invitation or persuasion to trade or invest. I-Sec and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of any actions taken in reliance thereon. Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. The contents herein mentioned are solely for informational and educational purpose.
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