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  • CMP : 543.7 Chg : 5.50 (1.02%)
  • Target : 235.0 (2.62%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

09 Aug 2022

Macro concerns impacting some key verticals…

About The Stock

Zensar Technologies (Zensar) offers application & IMS services to hi-tech, manufacturing, retail and BFSI.

  • Zensar has grown organically and inorganically over the years
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 19%)
Q1FY23 Results

Zensar reported weak numbers on the margin front.

  • Revenue grew 3.1% QoQ in CC terms while dollar revenue grew 1.7% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins declined ~290 bps QoQ to 11.3%
  • Digital revenues declined 0.5% QoQ.
What should Investors do?

Zensar’s share price has grown by ~1.4x over the past five years (from ~₹ 158 in August 2017 to ~₹ 229 levels in August 2022).

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value Zensar at ₹ 235 i.e. 14x P/E on FY24E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Addressing supply side challenges, which are impacting its growth by continuous compensation interventions
  • Moderation of subcontractor costs, which is expected to be one of the levers for margin expansion apart from pricing, utilisation improvement, more offshoring, etc.
  • Expect revenue growth at CAGR of 7.8% over FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Zensar, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Key beneficiary of growth in digital technologies and exposure to growth segments like healthcare & BFSI
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4,200

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 3,982.5 4,181.7 3,781.4 4,243.8 6.8 4,695.3 4,930.0 7.8
EBITDA 492.8 507.1 684.8 656.5 11.2 563.4 700.1 3.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.4 12.1 18.1 15.5 - 12.0 14.2 -
Reported PAT 313.6 263.4 300.0 416.1 12.1 271.9 381.5 -4.3
EPS (|) 13.9 11.5 13.2 18.3 - 11.9 16.8 -
P/E 16.4 19.9 17.4 12.5 - 19.2 13.7 -
ROE (%) 16.1 12.6 12.8 15.5 - 9.4 12.1 -
ROCE (%) 17.6 12.5 18.9 15.5 - 11.7 14.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported revenue of US$155.9 mn, 1.7% QoQ dollar growth while CC growth was 3.1% QoQ. In rupee terms, revenue grew 4.3% QoQ to | 1,203.4 crore. Digital services revenue declined by 0.5% QoQ
  • Geography wise, US region (70.9% of the mix) reported growth of 2.5% QoQ while Africa region (11% of mix) rebounded & reported a strong growth of 4.6%. Europe region (18.1% of the mix) declined 3.1% QoQ. The company indicated that growth in the US was led by BFSI verticals while Africa growth was led by new deals in BFSI, Cloud & Advanced engineering
  • Vertical wise, in CC terms, banking, insurance, emerging & manufacturing posted revenue growth of 10.6%, 5.6%, 5.1% & 3.3% QoQ, respectively, while hi-tech & consumer services were laggard with growth of -0.8% & -0.4%, respectively. The company indicated that the macroeconomic factors impacted the revenue growth of hi-tech & consumer services verticals
  • EBITDA margins for the quarter declined ~290 bps QoQ to 11.3%. The company indicated that the margins declined due to the following factors:

i)                Cost of Delivery: the company indicated that increased cost of delivery impacted margins by ~250 bps. The company mentioned that increased cost of delivery was due higher than attrition it is witnessing both in offshore and onsite (that also reflects in higher sub-contractor cost, which was up 12.5% QoQ and now forms 16.5% of revenues

ii)               Lower utilisation: The company did hire 1300 freshers in FY23 and hence utilisation was dropped impacting margins by ~100 bps

iii)              Forex: The company indicated that due to currency depreciation the margins of the company was impacted by 100 bps

  • Zensar indicated that the demand scenario is expected to remain challenging for the next three to four quarters, especially in hi-tech, manufacturing and retail sectors (59% of mix) due to macro challenges impacting this sectors. The company indicated that in these sectors clients have reduced spending, in some cases in fact, clients have stopped tech spends and also deferred some cases. They are not witnessing challenges in other verticals as of now
  • The company indicated that it has earlier guided for mid teen EBITDA margins in Q4FY23 but is now pushing that margin target by two to three quarters to Q3FY24. Zensar has rolled out annual wage hike effective from July 2022 and expects similar margin impact, which was visible last year. The company, however, mentioned that due to supply side challenges, the hike given this year (i.e. July 2022) is much higher than last year
  • The company indicated it is working on following margin levers, going forward

i)                Attrition: The company expects that due to record wage hikes and time to time wage corrections, attrition will stabilise in few quarters

ii)               Fresher hiring & utilisation: The company indicated that it had started its fresher hiring program in FY22 and will continue the same in FY23. Zensar hired ~1,300 freshers in FY22 & ~400 freshers in Q1FY23. The company indicated that they were late entrant as far as fresher hiring program is concerned vs its peers. Hence, top tier college graduates were not available when they started with fresher hiring programs

iii)              Sub-contractor cost: The company expects moderation in subcontractor costs in a few quarters when it would replace them with its own employees

iv)             Price revision: The company indicated that it is in continuous discussions with its clients for price hike due to elevated employee cost pressures

v)              Offshore mix: The company indicated that it continues to pursue its strategy to push for more off shore business mix to improve its margins

  • The company reported TCV of US$125 mn for the quarter, down 24.5% QoQ. Zensar added nine new logos in the quarter. The company indicated that revenue from its top five/top 10 & top 20 clients reported muted growth of 1.8%, nil & 0.4%, respectively
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY22   YoY (%)   Q4FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,203.4 936.8 28.5 1,153.8 4.3 3.1% QoQ in CC growth
Employee expense 883 611 44.5 806 9.6  
             
Gross Margin 321 326 -1.7 348 -8.0  
Gross margin (%) 26.6 34.8 -816 bps 30.2 -355 bps  
other expense 184 153 20.3 184 0.2  
             
EBITDA 136 173 -21.1 164 -17.1  
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.3 18.4 -711 bps 14.2 -292 bps EBITDA margin decline due to supply side pressure amid high attrition as well as sharp increase in subcontractor costs
Depreciation & amortisation 49 43 15.0 48 1.9  
EBIT 87 130 -33.0 116 -25.0  
EBIT Margin (%) 7.2 13.9 -664 bps 10.1 -282 bps  
Other income (less interest) 15 10 56.8 63 -76.5  
PBT 102 140 -26.9 180 -43.2  
Tax paid 27 37 -27.1 49 -45.0  
PAT 75 103 -26.8 131 -42.5  

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