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V-Mart Retail Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,052.0 Chg : -25.60 (-1.23%)
  • Target : 4,100.0 (25.27%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

26 May 2022

Hopeful of consumption revival in non-tier-I towns

About The Stock

V-Mart, having over the years built its fortress in non-tier I cities, is well poised to capture market share in the growing ~₹ 2.5 trillion value fashion industry. The company enjoys strong moats that would provide an edge over increasing competition in tier III-IV regions.

  • V-Mart follows a cluster based approach of adding stores within a radius of 50-100 km. This gives it better economies of scales, supply chain efficiencies and better understanding of fashion needs of the specific region
Q4FY22 result

V-Mart’s results were a mixed bag wherein revenue was below our estimates while profitability was better than anticipated.

  •                 On a favourable base, revenue grew 30% YoY to ₹ 458.8 crore. Newly acquired 74 Unlimited Stores in September contributed 16% to Q4 sales
  • Gross margins improved 510 bps YoY to 34.9% owing to lower discounting and timely price hikes taken (~15-17%) to offset RM inflation. Higher employee and other expense due to integration of Unlimited format led to 140 bps expansion in EBITDA margins to 11.0%
  •                 Higher depreciation and interest expense owing to integration of Unlimited business led the company to report a net loss of ₹ 2.6 crore
What should Investors do?

V-Mart has been a consistent compounder with the stock price appreciating at 27% CAGR in the last five years. V-Mart is currently facing a challenging scenario wherein higher inflation is pinching consumer spending especially for people salaried < ₹ 25000 (its main target consumers). Also heightened competition from large retailers in Tier III/IV cities is exerting pressure. However, we believe with healthy balance sheet and proven ability to operate a low cost profitable business in non-tier I cities would provide an edge over peers and new entrants.

  • We maintain BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised target price
Target Price Valuation

We value V-Mart at ₹ 4100 i.e. 19x FY24E EV/EBITDA

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We like V-Mart as a structural long term story to play the unorganised to modern retail shift. We pencil in revenue, EBITDA CAGR of 35%, 44%, respectively, in FY22-24E (on favourable base)
  • Recent acquisition of ‘Unlimited’ store brand (74 stores) will enable V-Mart to cater to the fashion needs in western and southern markets of India (where V-Mart has minimal presence)
  • We expect total retail space to increase at ~15% CAGR in FY22-24E with total area of 4.3 million square feet by FY24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from V-Mart, in our retail coverage we also like Trent  

  • Inherent strength of brands (Westside, Zudio, Zara) and proven business model position Trent as a key beneficiary of economy unlock theme
    • BUY with target price of ₹ 1510/share

 

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