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V I P Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 531.6 Chg : 9.90 (1.90%)
  • Target : 770.0 (30.51%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 May 2022

Geared up for robust holiday season; sustained RM inflation may act as deterrent

About The Stock

VIP Industries is one of Asia’s leading sellers/manufacturers of various type of luggage, backpacks and handbags. VIP has a range of leading brands, positioned across the entire price range, catering to value (Aristocrat) mid (VIP, Skybags) and premium (Carlton, Caprese) price points.

  • Market leader in the organised luggage space (oligopoly market)
  • VIP has, over the years, maintained balance sheet prudence with stringent working capital policy, virtually debt free status and healthy RoCE: 30%+
Q4FY22 results

Onset of the quarter (January) was impacted on account of Covid led disruptions, which impacted demand. Revenue recovery was at 86%.

  •                 On a favourable base, revenue grew 46% YoY to ₹ 355.9 crore (10% QOQ decline). The company lost revenue of two to three weeks (~20%)
  • Gross margins surprisingly came in at eight quarter high at 53.3% (up 436 bps QoQ, 950 bps YoY) despite pressure on RM. Product mix improvement and increase share of Bangladesh plant aided margins

Other expenses grew sharply by 16% QoQ owing to higher marketing spends and higher provisioning towards doubtful debts (Future Group). Subsequently, EBITDA margins declined 520 bps QoQ to 9.2%

What should Investors do?

VIP’s share price has grown by ~3x over the past five years (from ~₹ 195 in May 2017 to ~₹ 590 levels in May 2022). Luggage being a proxy play to the travel & tourism industry was among the worst impacted sectors owing to pandemic in FY21/22. With demand green shoots visible, we expect VIP Industries to be a key beneficiary of increased movement of leisure and business tourist both domestically and internationally

  • We maintain BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised target price
Target Price Valuation

We value VIP at ₹ 770 i.e. 48x FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong manufacturing capabilities in Bangladesh (for soft luggage) and India give VIP an edge over its peers that depend mainly on imports
  • Given the company’s healthy balance sheet (net debt free), we expect VIP to be able to effectively manage in a challenging environment
  • We expect the company to reach pre-Covid levels by FY23E and model in revenue CAGR of 30% in FY22-24E (on a favourable base). Re-engineered fixed overheads and increased proportion of in-house manufacturing both from India and Bangladesh to translate into better margins, going forward
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from VIP in our retail coverage, we also like Trent.

  • Inherent strength of brands (Westside, Zudio, Zara) and proven business model position Trent as a key beneficiary of economy unlock theme
    • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1510/share

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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