loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
Text Size
Text to Speech
Color Contrast
Pause Animations
  • CMP : 1,461.6 Chg : 10.20 (0.70%)
  • Target : 1,170.0 (17.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 Jul 2022

Margins bottom out in Q1

About The Stock

Tech Mahindra (TechM) has over 1.2 lakh employees across 90 countries serving 1000+ clients with higher exposure to telecom (40% of revenues).

  • Apart from telecom, the company caters to BFSI, manufacturing & retail
  • TechM has grown organically & inorganically (dollar revenue CAGR of 6.6% over the past five years)
Q1FY23 Results

TechM reported weak margins for Q1FY23

  • Dollar revenues increased 1.5% QoQ, while it was up 3.5% QoQ in CC
  • EBIT margins dipped 220 bps QoQ at 11.0%
  • New deal TCV at US$802 million (mn), down 20.7% QoQ & 1.6% YoY
What should Investors do?

TechM’s share price has grown by ~2.6x over the past five years (from ~₹ 389 in July 2017 to ~₹ 1,000 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value TechM at ₹ 1170 i.e. 15x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Healthy deal wins, traction in communication segment led by legacy modernisation, 5G, customer care, automation, network and cloud to drive revenues
  • Pruning of low return geographies, acceleration in Europe and improving demand from lift & shift deals to drive 11.8% CAGR growth in FY22-24E
  • Margins are expected to recover on pricing, lower subcontractor costs and utilisation improvement
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from TechM, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive
  •  BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,760

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net sales 34,742.1 36,867.7 37,855.1 44,646.0 8.9 51,357.0 55,803.0 11.8
EBITDA 6,336.8 5,726.1 6,847.0 8,020.0 13.9 8,371.2 9,430.7 8.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.2 15.5 18.1 18.0 - 16.3 16.9 -
Net Profit 4,297.5 3,815.6 4,428.0 5,566.1 14.6 5,842.5 6,874.6 11.1
EPS (|) 47.7 59.5 50.2 63.1 - 66.2 77.9 -
P/E 21.0 16.8 19.9 15.9 - 15.1 12.8 -
RoNW (%) 21.2 17.5 17.8 20.7 - 19.4 20.3 -
RoCE (%) 23.6 18.3 19.8 22.5 - 21.8 22.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported 1.5% QoQ growth in revenues at US$1,632 mn. In CC terms revenue grew 3.5% QoQ implying cross currency impact of 200 bps. In rupee terms, revenue grew 4.9% QoQ to | 12,708 crore

 

  • Vertical wise the revenue growth was led by Manufacturing (15.3% of mix) which grew by 4.2% QoQ. Retail & Technology vertical grew by 5.5% & 5.9% QoQ respectively while Communications & BFSI were laggards with +1% & -2.6% QoQ growth respectively. The company indicated that in CC terms communications segment grew by 3.9% QoQ and enterprise grew by 3.2% QoQ

 

  • EBIT margins for the quarter were down 220 bps QoQ to 11%. Margins for the quarter was impacted by the following factors: i) -100 bps due to higher salary, sub-contractor cost & large deal transition cost, ii) -80 bps due to visa cost and seasonality impact iii) -100bpps on normalization of SGA expenses mitigated by +50 bps due to increased pricing

 

  • The company indicated that it will roll out its annual wage hike in Q2 & it will impact margins by 100 bps. However, the company also indicated that the margins are bottomed out in Q1FY23 implying improvement in margins from Q2 onwards. The company indicated that EBIT margins will improve by 100-150 bps every quarter from Q2 & it aims to be back to at least 14% margin exit by Q4FY23.

 

  • The company has indicated the following levers for margin improvement, going forward:

 

i)                Pricing: The company indicated that it had negotiations on pricing with customers in Q4FY22 & have started getting some positive impact as tailwind for margin in Q1 was +50 bps of impact on margins in the next quarter on margins

ii)               Expenses: The company indicated it had booked all annual visa expenses in Q1 while large deal transition expenses were also booked in Q1. The company indicated that it also had incurred some additional expenses in this quarter due to shutdown of its Belarus facility (Russia-Ukrain war impact) and have shifted its employees to other European location.  This expenses are one-time and not recurring in nature.

iii)              Utilization: The company indicated its utilization level dropped to 82.8% as it had ramped up fresher hiring in FY22 ( it added 10,000 freshers in FY22). The company indicated that utilization levels are expected from Q2 onwards as the new recruits will be deployed on projects in the subsequent quarters

  •  Off shoring: The company indicates that offshoring is also one of the leavers going forward to improve margins.
  • The company indicates that it is now focusing on integration of acquisitions done by it in FY22 and will take a pause on it for few quarters

 

  • The company won net new deals TCV of US$ 802 mn in the quarter, down by 20.7% QoQ & 1.6% YoY. The company indicated that deal TCV is in its guided range of US$700m to US$ 1bn. The company indicated that demand continue to be robust which is visible as far as pipeline is concerned and it has not seen any evidence of tech spend reduction from clients so far. The company mentioned that it is seeing traction in the areas of communications, digital transformation on cloud, data & customer experience however did not rule out any prioritisation of tech spends from the clients.

 

  • The company indicated that LTM attrition declined by 130 bps QoQ to 22%. It added 6,862 net new employees in the quarter

 

  • The company indicated spending in communication vertical may not have some direct co-relation to the paying end users as the focus area of communication service provider continue to be on network capacity additions, network modernisation etc.
 
 
Variance Analysis
 
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY23E   Q1FY22   YoY (%)   Q4FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue                 12,708        12,502      10,198          24.6      12,116             4.9  Revenue grew by 3.5% QoQ CC growth 
 Employee expenses                   9,116          9,001        6,968          30.8        8,560             6.5  
               
 Gross Margin                   3,592          3,500        3,229          11.2        3,556             1.0  
 Gross margin (%)                     28.3            28.0          31.7  -340 bps           29.3  -108 bps   
 SG&A expenses                   1,712          1,625        1,353          26.5        1,468           16.6  
               
 EBITDA                   1,880          1,875        1,876            0.2        2,088         (10.0)  
 EBITDA Margin (%)                     14.8            15.0             18  -360 bps              17  -244 bps   
 Depreciation & amortisation                   476.7             500        331.1          44.0        484.2           (1.6)  
 EBIT                   1,403          1,375        1,545          (9.2)        1,604         (12.5)  
 EBIT Margin (%)                     11.0            11.0             15  -411 bps           13.2  -220 bps   EBIT margins impacted by: i) -100 bps due to higher salary, sub-contractor cost & large deal transition cost, ii) -80 bps due to visa cost, iii) -100bps normalization of SGA expenses mitigated by +50 bps due to increased pricing 
 Other income (less interest)                        82             320           249        (67.2)           265         (69.1)  
 PBT                   1,485          1,695        1,795        (17.2)        1,869         (20.5)  
 Tax paid                      338             424           429        (21.1)           328             3.0  
 PAT                   1,132          1,236        1,353        (16.4)        1,506         (24.8)  PAT was impacted by lower other income due to losses in some of its investments 
 Adjusted PAT                   1,132          1,236        1,353        (16.4)        1,506         (24.8)  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More