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State Bank of India>
  • CMP : 801.9 Chg : -5.90 (-0.73%)
  • Target : 650.0 (37.78%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Mar 2022

Strong performance enthuses

About The Stock

SBI is a public sector bank and also the largest bank in India with a balance sheet size of ~ ₹ 48 lakh crore.

  • Strong liability franchisee with trend setting abilities in terms of rates
  • Best operating metrics in the PSU banking space
Q3FY22

Healthy performance on the asset quality front and growth.

  • GNPA down 40 bps QoQ to 4.5%, restructured book at 1.2% of loans
  • NII up 6.5% YoY, NIM down 9 bps QoQ to 3.2%, C/I ratio at 52.9%
  • Provisions at ₹ 6974 crore, PAT up 62.3% YoY at ₹ 8431 crore
  • Gross advances up 8.5% YoY (higher than estimates) and deposits up 8.8% YoY, CASA at 45.7%
What should Investors do?

SBI’s share price has surged over 2x in the past five years. We believe overall strength in liability franchisee, >9% guidance on growth and improving return ratios with RoE touching 12-13% should be positives for SBI.

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock.
Target Price Valuation

We value the bank at ~1.22x FY24E ABV and subsidiaries at ~₹ 192 per share to arrive at a revised target price of ₹ 650.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong performance on asset quality front is a positive
  • Healthy pipeline to aid business growth and overall performance
  • Healthy provisions worth around 1.1% provide comfort on earnings shock
  • Improving RoE trajectory to aid improvement in valuations
New Stock Ideas

Besides SBI, in our coverage we also like Bank of Baroda

  • Bank of Baroda is among leading PSU banks with a global exposure and relatively better operating metrics among PSBs
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 120

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E 4 Year CAGR(FY16-FY20) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
NII 883.5 980.8 1,107.1 10.2 1,219.1 1,363.0 1,523.6 11.2
PPP 538.8 681.4 715.5 4.7 767.1 865.1 987.0 11.3
PAT 8.6 144.9 204.1
ABV (|) 174.0 203.2 243.3 - 279.5 325.0 373.8 -
P/E 499.2 28.9 20.5 - 13.2 11.0 9.9 -
P/ABV 2.7 2.3 1.9 - 1.7 1.4 1.3 -
RoA 0.0 0.4 0.5 - 0.7 0.7 0.8 -
RoE 0.5 6.4 8.4 - 11.8 12.6 12.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY22 Results: Stress reduces sequentially

  • Operational performance was mixed as NII was up 6.5% YoY but down 1.6% QoQ to | 30687 crore (in line with estimates). This was mainly due to 10 bps sequential decline in domestic NIMs at 3.4%. Other income came in at | 8673 crore, up 5.7% YoY, wherein fee income was up 6.6% QoQ and 7.4% YoY
  • Opex was under control and down 2.2% QoQ as staff expenses were down 0.9% sequentially. Thus, C/I ratio improved from 54.1% to 52.9% QoQ. Provisions declined 8% QoQ to | 6973 crore (taking into consideration previous quarter had one time pension related expenses), the bank has not utilised Covid provisions, which are now at | 6183 crore. As a result, net profit for Q3FY22 was at | 8432 crore, up 62.2% YoY and ahead of our estimates
  • Asset quality performance was strong as GNPA ratio for the bank declined 40 bps sequentially to 4.50% while net NPA was down 18 bps QoQ to 1.34%. Slippages for the quarter were at multi-quarter low. Total restructuring is now at 1.2% of loans i.e. at similar levels to previous quarter. Watch-list (SMA1 and SMA2) is now at | 4167 crore vs. | 6690 crore QoQ
  • Gross credit growth at 8.5% YoY to | 26.6 lakh crore while sequential growth came in at 5.3%. Retail segment was up 14.5% YoY in which home loans were up 11% YoY. Corporate loans were up 3.5% QoQ and the bank has unutilised working capital lines of over | 2 lakh crore. Deposits were up 8.8% YoY to
    | 38.4 lakh crore wherein domestic CASA was up 10% YoY. Thus, CASA ratio increased from 45.1% to 45.7% YoY

Q3FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The bank has | 30890 crore provision not included in net NPA
  • Expect credit growth to be around 9% for FY22E
  • ECLGS book is around | 31000 crore
  • Disbursement this quarter is | 7000 crore in ECLGS
  • The bank feels they are comfortable on capital for growth
  • EBLR book is 22%, MCLR 49% and ~17% book is fixed rate
  • No plan to increase interest rate on savings deposit
  • International book growth mainly from trade finance
  • Overall | 8000 crore recoveries expected in FY22E
  • Total ~| 8600 crore gross SR book and is provided 86%
  • NIM expected to be around 3.2%
  • Around | 20000 crore could be transferred to NARCL
  Q3FY22 Q3FY22E Q3FY21 YoY (%) Q2FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 30,687 30,685 28,820 6.5 31,184 -1.6 Business growth aided NII offset by higher disbursement to corporate segment
NIM (%) 3.2 2.7 3.1 3 bps 3.2 -9 bps  
Other Income 8,673 8,600 9,246 -6.2 8,208 5.7 Treasury income impacted other income trajectory
               
Net Total Income 39,360 39,285 38,066 3.4 39,392 -0.1  
Operating expense 20,839 21,197 20,733 0.5 21,312 -2.2  
PPP 18,521 18,087 17,333 6.9 18,079 2.4  
Provision 6,974 8,800 10,342 -32.6 7,607 -8.3  
PBT 11,547 9,287 6,991 65.2 10,472 10.3  
Tax Outgo 3,116 2,368 1,795 73.6 2,845 9.5  
PAT 8,431 6,919 5,196 62.3 7,627 10.5 Lower provision led uptick in PAT
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 1,20,028 1,22,400 1,17,244 2.4 1,23,942 -3.2 Lower slippages led to improvement in NPA
NNPA 34,530 38,719 29,032 18.9 37,119 -7.0  
Advances 2578386 2526263 2368139 8.9 2443194.23 5.5  
Deposits 3847794 3853971 3535753 8.8 3809629.87 1.0  

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, Sameer Sawant, MBA, and Dixit Sankharva, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%


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