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  • CMP : 465.2 Chg : -2.25 (-0.48%)
  • Buying Range : 555-565
  • Target : 640.0 (14.29%)
  • Stoploss : 510.0
  • Target Period : 3 Month

21 May 2023

Falling wedge breakout confirms resumption of uptrend…

SiyaramSilkMills

TECHNICAL_INFOGRAPHIC_1
Technical Outlook
The share price of Siyaram Silk logged a resolute breakout from falling wedge formation post Q4 result, indicating resumption of primary uptrend. Thus, it offers a fresh entry opportunity to ride the next leg of the up move 

Strong base formation bodes well for next leg of up move: Structurally, the stock has undergone strong base formation in the vicinity of 52 week’s EMA, highlighting a robust price structure

Breakout on the back of rising volume: The current breakout from falling wedge is backed by 2x volume of 10 week’s average volume, indicating larger participation in the direction of the trend

On oscillator front: Weekly MACD surpassed zero line post witnessing bullish crossover, indicating acceleration of upward momentum
 
We expect the stock to accelerate upward momentum and gradually head towards ₹ 640 in coming months as it is 80% retracement of CY22-23 decline (₹ 699-399)

Fundamental Outlook

Siyaram Silk Mills (SSML) is of India’s leading fabric manufacturer and retailer largely catering to Tier II and Tier III towns. Company has a total fabric capacity of more than 8 crore metre per annum. We believe SSML is a key beneficiary from the demand revival owing to its strong brand portfolio and Pan India distribution network. Siyaram’s brand portfolio consists of reputed brands like Siyaram (flagship brand), Oxemberg, MSD and J Hampstead. Over the last decade, the company has gradually expanded its fabric and garment capacities and simultaneously managed to reduce the debt/equity from 1.0x in FY12 to 0.2x in FY23

The company has implemented changes in its business model and reduced the consignment sales to negligible level. The number of EBOs with sale or return (SoR) has reduced from 83 in FY19 to only four in FY23. With focus on becoming asset light, the company has reduced company owned company operated (COCO) exclusive brand outlets (EBO) from 31 in FY19 to nil in FY23

SSML is planning to continue with the sharp SKU assortment strategy. The company continues to be selective with its product strategy and has increased focus on fast running stock keeping units (SKUs) with a target to maintain lower inventory level and reduce working capital cycle. Also, SSML has discontinued SKUs that were not performing well and is focusing on premiumisation of the product portfolio with introduction of newer and innovative products. The share of premium products increased from 20% in Q1FY22 to 25%+ in Q4FY23

 We expect the company to report revenue and earning CAGR of 13% and 15%, respectively, over FY23-25E. Enhanced capital efficiency (low leverage, controlled working capital cycle) and better profitability are expected to result in SSML maintaining healthy RoCE of ~23% by FY25E 

Follow up summary of Gladiator Stocks

Other product open recommendations

Date Product Scrip Name Market Strategy RP Target Stoploss Time Frame
5/16/2023 12:00:00 AM Momentum Pick PNC Infra Cash Buy 318.5 348 303 14 Days
5/18/2023 12:00:00 AM Momentum Pick IEX Cash Buy 162 175 155 14 Days
5/19/2023 12:00:00 AM Momentum Pick Birlssoft Cash Buy 331 357 311 14 Days
5/19/2023 12:00:00 AM Momentum Pick Radico Cash Buy 1137 1220 1066 14 Days
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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INFOGRAPHIC

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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