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  • CMP : 1,544.4 Chg : 0.0 (0.0%)
  • Target : 2,700.0 (11.11%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

25 Jul 2022

Strong refining gains lift consolidated earnings…

About The Stock

 Reliance Industries (RIL) is one of India’s biggest conglomerates with a presence in oil refining & marketing and petrochemicals, oil & gas exploration, retail, digital services and media, etc, making it a well-diversified business entity.

  • At the EBITDA level in FY22, O2C and oil & gas contributed 49% while retail, digital and others contributed 10%, 34% and 7%, respectively
Q1FY23

RIL’s results were driven by strong oil-to-chemicals (O2C) gains. However, O2C profitability stood below estimates which led to lower than expected PAT.

  • Revenue was up 54.5% YoY to ₹ 223113 crore as all major segments reported revenue growth. It grew 10.9% QoQ mainly led by O2C segment
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 37997 crore, up 62.6% YoY (and up 21.1% QoQ). EBITDA growth YoY was driven by O2C (up 63% YoY) and digital service (up 26% YoY) mainly on account of higher refining earnings in O2C coupled with higher ARPU driven by tariff hike
  • Subsequently, PAT was at ₹ 17955 crore, up 46.3% YoY.
What should Investors do?

Long term prospects and dominant standing of RIL in each of its product & service portfolio provides comfort for long term value creation. RIL’s consumer business will be the growth driver, going ahead. However, refining product cracks have seen correction compared to peaks witnessed in Q1FY23.

We change our rating from BUY to HOLD on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value RIL at ₹ 2700 on an SoTP basis

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Increment value accretion from the ‘digital ecosystem’ that will be captured at the Jio Platforms (JPL) level
  • Steady FCF generation in the retail segment would enable the company to maintain debt at lower levels and improve its ability to invest in future inorganic opportunities
  • Rise in GRMs will be the key to lift O2C earnings and steady cash flow from traditional business will enable RIL to invest in new energy verticals

Apart from RIL, in our oil & gas coverage we also like Gail.

  • Gail is a beneficiary of increasing gas consumption. Stable volume growth along with higher profitability from gas trading, petchem and LPG segment due to higher oil prices will add value
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 180

Variance Analysis

Quarter 75 75 70   73      
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 2,23,113.0 2,31,501.0 1,44,372.0 54.5 2,11,887.0 5.3    
Raw materials costs 1,46,869.0 1,49,289.7 90,305.0 62.6 1,45,009.0 1.3    
Employees Cost 6,003.0 4,597.6 4,257.0 41.0 5,278.0 13.7    
Other Expenses 32,244.0 30,505.4 26,442.0 21.9 -29,283.0 -210.1    
Total Expenditure 1,85,116.0 1,84,392.7 1,21,004.0 53.0 1,21,004.0 53.0    
EBITDA 37,997.0 47,108.3 23,368.0 62.6 31,366.0 21.1   Below estimates on account of lower than expected O2C profitability
EBITDA margins (%) 17.0 20.3 16.2 84 bps 14.8 223 bps    
Depreciation 8,946.0 8,358.5 6,883.0 30.0 8,001.0 11.8    
EBIT 29,051.0 38,749.8 16,485.0 76.2 23,365.0 24.3    
Interest 3,997.0 3,150.0 3,397.0 17.7 3,556.0 12.4    
Other Income 2,182.0 4,150.0 4,182.0 -47.8 2,602.0 -16.1   Lower than expected other income
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 27,236.0 39,749.8 17,270.0 57.7 22,411.0 21.5    
Total Tax 7,793.0 10,017.0 3,464.0 125.0 4,390.0 77.5    
PAT 17,955.0 27,909.0 12,273.0 46.3 16,203.0 10.8   Weaker than expected O2C profitability resulted in lower than anticipated PAT
                 
Key Metrics                
Exchange rate (|/$) 77.3 77.3 73.9 4.6 75.2 2.7    
ARPU (|) 174.2 174.2 138.4 25.9 167.6 3.9    
Subscribers (mn) 416.8 416.8 440.6 -5.4 410.2 1.6    
Retail revenue (| crore) 58569.0 61466.0 38563.0 51.9 58019.0 0.9   Footfalls recovered to 119% of pre-Covid level 
Retail EBITDA (| crore) 3849.0 3655.0 1953.0 97.1 3712.0 3.7   Higher share of fashion and lifestyle segment enhanced margin profile
O2C EBITDA (| crore) 19888.0 29270.3 12231.0 62.6 14241.0 39.7   Lower than expectations
E&P EBITDA (| crore) 2737.0 2473.0 797.0 243.4 1556.0 75.9    
Gas output (mmscmd) 13.4 13.1 14.3 -6.1 12.7 5.8   In line with estimates

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