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  • CMP : 1,065.8 Chg : -14.0 (-1.30%)
  • Target : 2,300.0 (20.17%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Jul 2022

Super Hit Quarter!

About The Stock

PVR Ltd. is the market leader in terms of multiplex screen count in India. Currently, it operates 858 screens in 174 cinemas in 75 cities in India and Sri Lanka with an aggregate seating capacity of ~1.79 lakhs seats as on Q1FY23

With leadership in the high realisation key markets of Maharashtra/NCR, it enjoys superior ATP, SPH and advertisement than peers

Q1FY23 Results

Strong Performance

  • Reported revenue was at ₹ 981.4 crore, (up 83% QoQ) and 11% higher than pre-covid levels in Q1FY20. PVR reported box office revenue of ₹ 530.2 crore (up 80% QoQ) and ad revenues of ₹ 62.7 crore. The company reported ₹ 323.8 crore of F&B revenues, up 90% QoQ, with SPH at ₹ 134 was up 10% QoQ. The footfalls were up ~75% QoQ at 25 million and ATP at ₹ 250 was up ~3% QoQ owing to slate mix.
  • EBITDA (ex-  Ind AS116) was at ₹ 189 crore with margins of 19.3% (better than pre covid levels of 18%) given the strong box office performance. On reported basis, EBITDA was at ₹ 341.6 crore (margin of 34.8%)
  • The reported PAT was at ₹ 53.4 crore led by strong operating performance. The company reported net PAT (ex- Ind AS116) at ₹ 68.3 crore
What should Investors do?

PVR share price has grown by ~45% over the past five years (from ~₹ 1316 in July 2017 to ~₹ 1914 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the company
Target Price and Valuation

We value PVR at ₹ 2300 i.e. 15x FY24E EV/EBITDA 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong content slate line up to drive recovery in footfalls/revenues
  • The company is likely to have ~8-10% permanent saving in costs (ex-rental) given the rationalisation measures
  • Merged entity (PVR Inox) will benefit from scale of expansion, faster growth trajectory and other revenues/cost synergy
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from PVR, among multiplex we like Inox Leisure

  • A play on footfall recovery post pandemic and strong balance sheet
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 670

Key Financial Summary

(Year-end March) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 4 yr CAGR (FY20-24)
Net Sales (| crore) 3,085.6 3,414.4 280.0 1,331.0 -8.0 4,111.4 4,806.9 8.9
EBITDA (| crore) 586.3 1,076.6 -334.9 105.7 -22.0 1,420.0 1,679.7 11.8
Net Profit (| crore) 183.2 27.3 -747.8 -488.2
EPS (|) 39.2 5.3 -122.6 -80.0 - 36.2 51.5 -
P/E (x) 48.8 360.0 -15.6 -23.9 - 52.9 37.2 -
Price / Book (x) 6.0 6.6 6.4 8.5 - 7.4 6.2 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.0 15.3 -47.6 154.1 - 11.5 7.2 -
RoCE (%) 14.1 8.5 -6.3 -2.8 - 12.2 32.2 -
RoE (%) 12.2 1.8 -40.8 -35.6 - 14.0 16.7 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

Strong box office drive recovery

Notably Q1 revenues were 11% higher than pre-covid levels in Q1FY20.  The company has witnessed a strong Q1, led by superlative performances by KGF 2, Bhool Bhulaiyya 2, RRR (residual collection), Doctor Strange, Vikram (Tamil) etc. Consequently, the footfalls were up ~75% QoQ at 25 million and ATP at | 250 was up ~3% QoQ owing to slate mix. We highlight that content pipeline is very strong and there is high probability of strong collections in the coming quarters too. We bake in 125/100 screens addition in both FY23/ FY24E, respectively. Consequently, we build in footfalls growth of 3.2% CAGR in FY20-24E to 115 mn coupled with 5.5% CAGR in ATP to lead to 9.3% FY20-24E CAGR in net box office revenues to | 2471 crore. F&B revenue CAGR is estimated at 12.4% over FY20-24E leading to a total of | 1513 crore. Ad revenue is expected to recover gradually and we expect ad revenue of | 420 crore in FY24E (~12% higher than FY20). We incorporate strong recovery from FY23 with all variables back to pre-Covid levels.

Healthy debt reduction; merger timeline on track…

The company has indicated that from March, 2022, it is back to paying committed rentals as per agreements, with no clawbacks. During the quarter, the company reduced its net debt by | 82 crore to | 844 crore. It expects debt to not inch up beyond current levels as the capex will be internal accrual funded. It also indicated that merger is on track as it has received the approvals from stock exchanges. It is now looking to file for approval with NCLT which will take another 5-7 months.

Conference call highlights

  • Guidance: The company guided for 125 screens opening FY23, with capex of | ~400 crore, all funded through internal accruals. In Q1, 14 screen have been added and 82 screens are under fit outs. Majority of screen addition is likely in H2FY23. It also guided that ad revenues would get to pre-Covid run rate in Q3 led by festive recovery. For, FY23 full year, ad revenues will be lower than FY20 (pre-pandemic levels). On the SPH front, the company indicated that SPH to ATP ratio (currently at 54%) will continue to inch up, going ahead. It expects the ATP to remain firm.
  • Ad revenues: It indicated Q2 will be 75-80 percent (of pre-COVID level) and by Q3 there will be full recovery in the festival season. Brands FMCG (15-17% of ad revenues) and Telecom, which are relevant, has shown slow recovery. FMCG has not fully come back and handset manufacturers are facing supply chain issues.
  • Content windowing: For Bollywood movies, the windowing to is likely to revert to 8 weeks from first of August, 2022.

We continue to believe PVR is a proxy play on urban/semi urban discretionary spends. We believe that that with strong content pipeline recovery trend will continue ahead. We maintain BUY. We assign 15x FY24 EV/EBITDA with a target price of | 2300/share.

Disclaimer

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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