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PVR Inox Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,361.2 Chg : -15.55 (-1.13%)
  • Target : 2,020.0 (21.69%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

30 Jan 2023

Healthy recovery; content performance key ahead!

About The Stock

PVR Ltd is the market leader in terms of multiplex screen count in India. Currently, it operates 903 screens in 181 cinemas in 78 cities in India and Sri Lanka with an aggregate seating capacity of ~1.86 lakh seats.

  • With leadership in the high realisation/key markets of Maharashtra and NCR, it enjoys superior ATP, SPH and advertisement compared to peers
Q3FY23

On expected lines, PVR reported a strong recovery QoQ led by improved content performance in Q3.

  • Revenue came in at ₹ 940.7 crore, (up 37% QoQ) and ~3% higher than pre-Covid levels in Q3FY20. Box office revenue was at ₹ 436 crore (up ~33% QoQ) with footfalls up ~22% QoQ at 22 million and ATP at ₹ 244, up ~9% QoQ owing to content performance and movie slate mix. Ad revenues were at ₹ 79.2 crore, at ~65% of pre Covid levels.
  • The company reported ₹ 288 crore of F&B revenues, up 25% QoQ, with SPH at ₹ 133, up 3% QoQEBITDA (without impact of Ind-AS116) was at ₹ 128.3 crore, with margins at 13.6%, given the box office performance and higher distribution revenues. On reported basis, EBITDA was at ₹ 288.8 crore (margin of 30.7%)
  • PAT (ex-Ind AS116) was at ₹ 25.2 crore vs. losses in the base quarter
What should Investors do?

PVR’s share price has grown by ~30% over the past five years (from ~₹ 1279 in January 2018 to ~₹ 1660 levels currently).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the company given the medium-term trigger of synergy (scale led benefits) post-merger
Target Price and Valuation

We value PVR at ₹ 2020 i.e., 15x FY24E EV/EBITDA.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong content slate line up to drive recovery in footfalls/revenues
  • Merged entity (PVR Inox) will benefit from scale of expansion, faster growth trajectory and other revenues/cost synergy
New Stock Ideas

Apart from PVR, among multiplex we like Inox Leisure

  • A play on footfall recovery, strong balance sheet & merger synergy
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 620

Key Financial Summary

(Year-end March) FY20 FY21E FY22E 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 5 yr CAGR (FY20-25)
Net Sales (| crore) 3,414.4 280.0 1,331.0 -8.2 3,563.5 4,610.8 5,356.5 9.4
EBITDA (| crore) 1,076.6 -334.9 105.7 -21.6 1,070.6 1,612.7 1,865.5 11.6
Net Profit (| crore) 27.3 -747.8 -488.2
EPS (|) 5.3 -122.6 -80.0 - 1.8 45.2 58.3 -
P/E (x) 312.2 -13.5 -20.7 - 933.1 36.7 28.5 -
Price / Book (x) 5.8 5.5 7.4 - 7.4 6.2 5.1 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.8 -43.0 139.4 - 14.0 9.2 5.7 -
RoCE (%) 8.5 -6.3 -2.8 - 7.9 13.9 36.1 -
RoE (%) 1.8 -40.8 -35.6 - 0.8 16.9 18.0 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

Strong box office drive recovery

Q3 saw strong recovery led by performance of movies such Avatar 2, Drishyam 2 and regional content like Kantara and PS-1. Consequently, footfalls were up ~22% QoQ at 22 million and ATP at | 244 was up ~9% QoQ owing to content performance and movie slate mix. Near term monitorable is big ticket content performance, which has seen inconsistency in performance, post Covid. The pipeline of big movies in Q4 includes Pathaan, Bhola, Jon Wick 4 Shehzada, Maidan, Tu Jhoothi Main Makkaar, Selfie, Ant Man, Creed 3, Babylon. Thus, a good response could drive recovery. We bake in 100 screens addition each in FY23, FY24E, and FY25E. Consequently, we build in footfalls growth of 4.2% CAGR in FY20-25E to 125 million (mn) coupled with 5.2% CAGR in ATP to lead to ~10% FY20-25E CAGR in net box office revenues to
| 2766 crore. F&B revenue CAGR is estimated at ~13% over FY20-25E leading to a total of | 1736 crore. Ad revenue is expected to recover gradually. We expect ad revenue of | 435 crore in FY25E (~16% higher than FY20).

Merger to be consummated by February end…

On January 12, NCLT Mumbai bench allowed the proposed scheme of merger. Thus, the company expects the merger to be completed by February end (details of timeline on Page 3). The company reiterated its plan to add 200 screens per year as a merged entity. It also indicated that ad per screen of Inox’ top properties will inch up post-merger while the distribution segment is also expected to expand on a merged entity basis. During Q3, the net debt has inched by | 80 crore to | 1180 crore owing to capex spends. The company indicated that future growth will be internal accruals driven, going ahead, as admits and ticketing bounce back.

Conference call highlights

  • Guidance: The company reiterated its guidance to open 100-110 screens in FY23, with capex of | ~400 crore. Till date, 63 screens have been added and 47 screens are under fitouts. It also guided that ad revenue recovery has been pushed and full recovery is expected in FY23 once big budget releases start doing better, which would encourage media buyers
  • The company has alluded to the weakness in Bollywood content to (a) pre-pandemic conceptualised films not in sync with current consumer taste, (b) negative social media against some Bollywood movies/stars and (c) quality of content driving performance as compared to superstar presence and (d) content supply being lower than pre-pandemic especially in Hollywood space. We concur with the reasons but believe Bollywood content recovery will be the key driver for overall operational performance while improved Hollywood releases in FY24 will also aid overall box office collections

We continue to believe PVR is a proxy play on urban/semi urban discretionary spends. We believe that with strong content pipeline will drive recovery. Near term monitorable is big ticket content performance, which has seen inconsistency in performance, post Covid. For the medium term, key trigger will be merger post which the MergedCo will benefit from scale of expansion, faster growth trajectory and other revenues/cost synergy. We maintain BUY rating. We assign 15x FY24 EV/EBITDA with a target price of | 2020/share.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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RATING RATIONALE

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Pankaj Pandey

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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