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  • CMP : 2,795.0 Chg : -98.50 (-3.40%)
  • Target : 1,700.0 (21.43%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 Feb 2023

High opex mars two quarters; revenue surge better

About The Stock

MCX is the leader in commodity derivatives exchanges in India with ~96.8% market share in terms of commodity futures turnover.

  • It has ~100% market share in precious metals, base metals and energy
  • Presence in various commodities offers healthy diversification
Q3FY23

MCX reported continued growth in options.

  • Average daily futures turnover (ADTO) declined ~1% YoY to ₹ 24266 crore due to a decline in base metals volume
  • Option ADTO continued to gain traction to ₹ 39402 crore, up 26% QoQ
  • Operational revenue up 12.7% QoQ; other income up 12.4% QoQ
  • Earnings at ₹ 38.8 crore; up 12.6%, led by strong options turnover
What should Investors do?

MCX’ share price has grown by ~14% over the past three years. Steady volume in futures and continued robust traction in option segment to aid topline growth. Delay in launch of new platform and associated elevated cost remains a near term overhang.

Target Price and Valuation

We value MCX at ~29x core FY25E EPS and net cash and maintain our target price at ₹ 1700.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued robust growth in option volume to aid revenue & earnings
  • New product launch/initiatives - electricity contracts, option gold contract to drive the next leg of re-rating
  • Delay in launch of new platform impacts cost saving anticipated earlier. The management seems confident of launching new platform by Q1FY23. Elevated software related opex remains a near term overhang
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from MCX, in our coverage we also like HDFC AMC.

  • HDFC AMC is among the largest and profitable mutual funds with an QAAUM of ~₹ 4.4 lakh crore
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2250

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR_(FY22-25E)
Net Sales 374.2 390.6 366.8 6.9 518.6 581.7 599.2 17.8
EBITDA 154.7 185.1 162.2 19.6 150.0 255.0 336.8 27.6
Net Profit 236.6 225.3 143.7 -5.2 155.4 233.2 297.5 27.5
EPS (|) 46.4 44.2 28.2 - 30.5 45.7 58.3 -
P/E(x) 30.2 31.7 49.7 - 45.9 30.6 24.0 -
Annual Volume Traded (in lakh crore) 86.9 82.6 87.8 - 146.4 186.9 205.6 -
RoE (%) 17.4 15.9 10.1 - 10.6 13.7 14.9 -
RoA (%) 8.7 9.0 5.1 - 5.2 6.9 7.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY Q2FY23 QoQ Comments
Revenue 143.6 151.4 89.6 60.3% 127.4 12.7% Healthy growth driven by options and other operating income
Other Income 20.1 12.7 14.5 38.4% 18.2 10.1% Uptick in other income led by steady yields
Total Income 163.7 164.1 104.1 57.3% 145.6 12.4%  
               
Operating Expenses 87.9 44.2 30.9 184.7% 38.9 125.8% Uptick in software expenses impacted overall opex
Other Expenses 22.9 22.4 20.4 12.3% 22.9 0.2%  
               
Total Expenses 110.8 66.7 51.3 116.1% 61.8 79.4%  
               
EBITDA 32.7 84.7 38.27 -14.4% 65.6 -50.1%  
EBITDA % 22.8% 56.0% 42.7% -1,993 bps 51.5% -2,870 bps  
               
Depreciation 4.3 6.0 6.7 -36.5% 5.8 -26.3%  
Finance Costs 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.5% 0.0 -  
Exceptional Items -0.7 0.0 -0.5 - -1.4 -  
PBT 47.8 91.3 45.5 5.1% 76.7 -37.7%  
Tax 9.0 21.0 11.0 -18.3% 13.5 -33.2%  
PAT 38.8 70.3 34.5 12.6% 63.3 -38.7% Top-line healthy; elevated software expense marred earnings
               
Turnover 40,74,762   21,55,770 89.0% 35,94,392 13.4% Strong traction continued in options turnover

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Extended contract with previous vendor for two quarters (Q4FY23 and Q1FY24) wherein payment was ascertained at | 81 crore per quarter. Of this, | 15 crore is regular payment while remaining | 65 crore is additional expense
  • MCX is planning to launch new platform before June 2023. More mock sessions are planned in the near term
  • Liability clause with TCS has kicked in as platform delivery was due in July 2022 but could not deliver till September 2022. Hence, there is penalty on delay
  • Launch of mini contract in three segments (two related to crude and one metal) are slated in the near term. They are awaiting regulatory approval
  • After shifting to new platform, software expense should be at level seen till Q2FY23 while depreciation is seen inching up a bit higher
  • Income from options at | 53 crore, other operating income higher at | 26 crore
  • No fortnightly contracts as of now. They could be launched ahead subject to regulatory approval
  • As of December 31, 2023, cash balance was at | 918 crore
  • The new platform will have some superior functionality; though initially basic functionality is to be implemented followed by additional features introduced later
  • Higher margin money (in relation to increasing volume) invested in short term instruments has led to improvement in other income in Q2FY23 and Q3FY23

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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