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Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd>
  • CMP : 129.3 Chg : 5.05 (4.06%)
  • Target : 140.0 (12.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 May 2022

Centralised focus post restructuring to steer path…

About The Stock

Motherson Sumi (MSSL) (now Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd i.e. SAMIL) primarily serves the global PV industry with wiring harnesses, vision systems (mirrors) & plastic body parts as key product lines.

  • History of successful turnarounds in acquisitions and inorganic-led growth
  • SMRPBV order book was at €16.1 billion as of FY22
Q4FY22

The company posted a steady performance in Q4FY22.

  • Consolidated net sales (excluding DWH) were at ₹ 17,184 crore, up 7% QoQ
  • EBIDTA margins remained were up 35 bps QoQ at 7.1%
  • Consequent consolidated PAT was at ₹ 130 crore, down 42% QoQ
What should Investors do?

MSSL’s stock price has been under pressure in the recent past amid concerns over demand, supply disruptions at its overseas markets.

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock amid volatile demand prospects as well as pressure on margins amid elevated costs (RM, energy, labour)
Target Price Valuation

Introducing FY24, we now value the entity post-merger of erstwhile SAMIL into MSSL and demerger of DWH into separate entity at ₹ 140/share i.e. 25x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 5.7 (earlier TP at ₹ 185).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Backed by a revival of worldwide OEM client volumes, steady order-book and EV neutral product profile, we expect 5% net sales CAGR over FY22-24E. FY22 numbers are skewed as it includes 9MFY22 numbers of DWH
  • Healthy share of EVs in order book (~27% in SMRBV order-book)
  • Simplified organisational structure with higher capacity utilisation, operating leverage, revival in foreign operations, margins are seen at 9% in FY24E. Hence, RoCE is seen entering the double digit lane, going forward
New Stock Ideas

Besides MSSL, in our ancillary coverage we like Apollo Tyres.

  • India CV revival beneficiary focused on debt reduction, higher return ratios

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 250

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 63,522.9 63,536.9 61,462.9 67,509.7 9.7 70,201.2 74,447.5 5.0
EBITDA 5,348.4 5,201.4 4,840.2 4,960.7 3.0 5,296.5 6,733.0 16.5
EBITDA Margins (%) 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.3 - 7.5 9.0 -
Net Profit 1,613.2 1,170.1 1,039.9 873.3 -10.9 1,506.3 2,579.5 71.9
EPS (₹) 5.1 3.7 3.3 1.9 - 3.3 5.7 -
P/E 24.5 33.7 38.0 64.7 - 37.5 21.9 -
RoNW (%) 14.7 10.4 8.8 4.4 - 7.0 11.1 -
RoCE (%) 12.4 9.0 6.7 5.4 - 6.6 10.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • Consolidated revenues (excluding DWH) for the quarter were at | 17,184 crore, up 7% QoQ
  • EBITDA, on a consolidated basis, was at | 1,211 crore with associated EBITDA margins at 7.1%, up 35 bps QoQ
  • Standalone business (excluding DWH) grew 23% QoQ to | 1,630 crore with consequent EBITDA margins at 13.2%, up 320 bps QoQ (includes service fee from DWH operations for 9MFY22)
  • The performance of overseas subsidiaries was, however, muted on the margins front. SMR reported revenues of € 359 million, up 7% QoQ while SMP reported revenues of € 967 million, flat QoQ. EBITDA margins in SMR & SMP were at 8.8% (down 30 bps QoQ) & 4.7% (down 230 bps QoQ) respectively. The operations at SMP & SMR were impacted on account of higher RM, energy costs as well as higher labour costs
  • Consolidated PAT (excluding DWH) were at | 130 crore, down 42% QoQ, impacted by exceptional costs item as well as higher effective tax rate

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