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  • CMP : 16,412.0 Chg : 83.0 (0.51%)
  • Target : 10,000.0 (15.47%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jul 2022

Strong order-book, new SUV launches bodes well...

About The Stock

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) is the market leader in the domestic passenger vehicle (PV) space with market share pegged at ~43.4% and popular models being Alto, WagonR, Swift, Brezza, Baleno, Ertiga, etc., among others.

  • Market leader in each sub-segment - cars (63.6%), UV (19.5%), vans (95.7%)
  • Strong b/s; ~₹ 42,000 crore cash and investment on books as of FY22
Q1FY23

The company posted muted performance in Q1FY23.

  • Total operating income came in at ₹ 26,500 crores flat QoQ
  • EBITDA margins in Q1FY23 stood at 7.2%, down 186 bps QoQ
  • Consequent PAT at ₹ 1,013 crore was down ~44.9% QoQ, driven by decline in margins, MTM on investment book and higher effective tax rate
What should Investors do?

MSIL’s stock price has grown at ~2.3% CAGR from
~₹ 7,630 levels in July 2017, in tandem to the broader Nifty Auto index in this time.

  • We retain our BUY rating tracking healthy demand prospects, robust order-book & encouraging customer response to new launches in the SUV space. MSIL is best placed to play upon underpenetrated PV category domestically
Target Price Valuation

Upgrading our estimates, we now value MSIL at ₹ 10,000 i.e., 33x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹333/share (previous target ₹ 9,630).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Robust demand in SUV space aided by exciting product launches and sequential uptick in ASPs’, we have built 24.4% FY22-24E sales CAGR
  • Leadership position in the CNG space with CNG penetration now at ~20% of sales volume. Maiden strong hybrid offering in Grand Vitara
  • New product launch pipeline along with facelifts especially in UV space to make good for the lost market share. We have built 15.9% sales volume CAGR over FY22-24E with outperformance expected from UV portfolio.
  • Greenfield capex under execution for a new plant in the state of Haryana. Scheduled EV launch in 2025.
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from MSIL, in our OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,500

 

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 86,020.3 75,610.6 70,332.5 88,295.6 5.4 116,983.2 136,704.0 24.4
EBITDA 10,999.3 7,302.6 5,345.3 5,661.8 -11.4 9,895.0 13,354.8 53.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.8 9.7 7.6 6.4 - 8.5 9.8 -
Net Profit 7,500.6 5,650.6 4,229.7 3,766.3 -12.5 7,154.3 10,068.2 63.5
EPS (₹) 248.3 187.1 140.0 124.7 - 236.8 333.3 -
P/E 34.9 46.3 61.8 69.5 - 36.6 26.0 -
RoNW (%) 16.3 11.7 8.2 7.0 - 12.1 15.3 -
RoIC (%) 68.6 26.8 24.2 24.2 - 58.5 93.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q1FY23 Results:

  • Total operating income for the quarter stood at | 26,500 flat QoQ. Q1FY23 volumes came in at 4.7 lakh units, down 4.3% QoQ. Of this, domestic volumes de-grew by 5.3% QoQ to 4.0 lakh units, while exports volumes were flat QoQ at 0.7 lakh units. Average Selling Price (ASP) came in at | 5.4 lakh/unit, up 3.5% QoQ.
  • Margins surprised negatively this time, down ~186 bps QoQ to 7.2%. Gross margins declined 105 bps QoQ while employee costs & other expenses were up by ~53 bps & ~26 bps respectively.
  • Consequent PAT in Q1FY23 came in at | 1,013 crore, down 44.9% QoQ. Muted PAT performance was due to lower operating margins, lower other income (mark to market adjustment) & higher effective tax rate at 23.4% vs 16.3% in Q4FY22.

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights    

  • Q1FY23 remained weak for company amidst conductor shortage impacting wholesales (~51,000 units’ production lost) and commodity inflation impacting margins. However, company witnessed highest ever exports ~69k during Q1FY23.
  • Management informed that on raw material inflation effect comes with quarterly lag and with peak attained and further no hike being witnessed till date margins to improve going forward.
  • Company plans to invest ₹11,000 crores in new facility in Haryana spread across 800 acres of land with 2.5 lakh annual capacity to start with and expected commissioning in 2025. It has sufficient space to expand capacities on the site. This capex would be accounted for in MSIL’s book.
  • During the quarter company witnessed ~2% hike in material prices which was partially offset by commodity led price hikes.
  • Company continues to witness strong order book of ~3.5 lakh units as on date. With respect to launch of recent products: New Brezza received ~70,000 bookings in short span of time and that to ~50-60% for higher end models & ~20,000 booking for Grand Vitara of which ~45-50% is for strong hybrid model.
  • Management expects Grand Vitara to be hit product in hot selling SUV space which today forms ~40-50% of total cars sold.
  • Exchange rate benefit to come in effect from Q2FY23. Current direct yen exposure is up to 3% of topline and indirect yen exposure is pegged at 85 billion yen. Royalty is paid in INR and hence free from exchange rate fluctuation risk (~3.7% of sales)
  • Management continues to focus on increasing exports as exports have nearly doubled during FY22 and would like to sustain this level and even improve through networking channel of its parent if economic factors supports.
  • Volume at Gujarat plant stood at 31% of total output
  • Export revenue stood at ₹3,640 crores during Q1FY23 vs ₹3,511 crores in Q4FY22

  • CNG portfolio continues to expand at company and now forms ~20% of total sales.

  • Avg. discount per car stood at ~₹ 12,750 during Q1FY23 vs. ~₹11,130 in Q4FY22.

Disclaimer

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