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  • CMP : 785.7 Chg : 33.20 (4.41%)
  • Target : 1,150.0 (30.83%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Jul 2022

Strong operating performance; outlook encouraging

IndusInd Bank is a Hinduja group promoted newer age private sector bank and is the fifth largest private bank in India.

  • Vehicle finance forms around 26% of overall loans
  • Strong pan-India presence with 5939 branches as on June 2022
Q1FY23

IndusInd Bank reported a robust performance

  • Loan growth up 17.7% YoY while deposits were up 13.1% YoY
  • NII up 15.8% YoY, NIMs steady QoQ at 4.21%, PAT at ₹ 1603 crore
  • GNPA up 8 bps QoQ to 2.35%. Restructured book down 50 bps to 2.1%
  • Loan related provisions declined to 3.38% vs 3.5% of loans in Q4FY22

IndusInd Bank’s share price has gained ~1.7x in the past 2 years. We believe the bank is poised to report improved business traction coupled with robust RoA. trajectory

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock

We value the bank at ~1.6x FY24E ABV and maintain a TP of ₹ 1150 per share.

  • Focus on new growth engines, investment in retail franchise to aid growth
  • Gradual retaliation of liabilities to support margin trajectory 
  • Healthy provision buffer of 3.4% to keep credit cost at normalised level
  • Opex to remain elevated, though steady NIM, healthy collection to aid RoA

Besides IndusInd, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liability profile with healthy capitalisation makes the bank well placed to accrue earnings growth momentum. Healthy provision cover provides comfort on smoother earnings trajectory
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 970

Key Financial Summary

| Crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR
(FY19-FY22)
FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
NII 8,846 12,059 13,528 15,001 19% 16,937 19,654 14%
PPP 8,088 10,773 11,727 12,839 17% 14,165 16,419 13%
PAT 3,301 4,418 2,836 4,611 12% 6,973 8,295 34%
ABV (|)             405             473             542             590               643             735  
P/E            16.0            13.8            24.0            14.8                9.7              8.2  
P/ABV              2.2              1.9              1.6              1.5                1.4              1.2  
RoA              1.3              1.5              0.8              1.2                1.6              1.7  
RoE            13.1            14.4              7.3            10.1              14.0            15.0  

 

Variance Table

 

  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 4,125 4,063 3,564 15.8 3,985 3.5 Growth aided by business traction 
NIM (%) 4.21 4.23 4.06 15 bps 4.20 1 bps Margins maintained by repricing assets 
Other Income 1,929 1,926 1,781 8.3 1,902 1.4 Core fee up 47% YoY
               
Net Total Income 6,054 5,989 5,345 13.3 5,887 2.8  
Staff cost 660 699 608 8.6 659 0.3  
Other Operating Expenses 2,000 2,008 1,606 24.5 1,900 5.3 Uptick in business activities and tech spends increased opex 
               
PPP 3,394 3,282 3,131 8.4 3,329 2.0  
Provision 1,251 1,372 1,844 -32.2 1,463.5 -14.5 Loan related provisions declined by 12 bps QoQ
PBT 2,143 1,910 1,287 66.5 1,865 14.9  
Tax Outgo 539 481 312 73.1 503.6 7.1  
PAT 1,603 1,429 974.95 64.4 1,361 17.8 Lower credit costs aid robust PAT growth
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 5,933 5,320 6,186 -4.1 5,517 7.5 GNPAs in consumer segment remained elevated 
NNPA 1,661 1,408 1,760 -5.6 1,530 8.6  
Credit book 2,47,960 2,49,541 2,10,727 17.7 2,39,052 3.7  
Deposit book 3,02,719 3,03,094 2,67,630 13.1 2,93,681 3.1 CASA rises 16% YoY

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