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Indian Oil Corporation Ltd>
  • CMP : 171.6 Chg : 1.35 (0.79%)
  • Target : 90.0 (11.11%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

01 Feb 2023

Marketing performance likely to improve…

About The Stock

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is India’s largest refining & marketing company with an installed refining capacity of ~70 MMT.

  • IOC operates 34559 retail outlets as of end of FY22
  • Petrol and diesel together historically constitute ~52% of marketing sales
Q3FY23 Results

IOC’s results were lower than estimates on the profitability front.

  • Revenue increased 15.7% YoY, flat QoQ to ₹ 228168.3 crore (I-direct estimate: ₹ 214457 crore). Marketing sales increased 10% YoY, 7.5% QoQ to 23.2 MMT
  • Average GRM for the quarter was US$12.9/bbl marginally higher than I-direct estimate of US$12/bbl. Marketing losses were higher than estimates, as per our understanding, EBITDA was at ₹ 3593.4 crore, down 64% YoY (up 83% QoQ)
  • IOC reported PAT of ₹ 448 crore vs. a net loss of ₹ 272 crore (I-direct estimate: ₹ 1576 crore)
What should Investors do?

GRMs are likely to remain strong amid increase in petrol cracks. The company has not passed on higher crude oil costs to customers but marketing losses are likely to narrow down in the near term.

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value IOC at ₹ 90 i.e. average of P/E multiple: ₹ 85/share and P/BV multiple: ₹ 95/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Global product cracks sustaining at relatively higher levels
  • Passing on higher retail prices of petrol & diesel to customers (due to higher crude oil costs)
  • Pipeline segment profitability has been consistent over last few years
  • Consistent dividend payout
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from IOC, in our oil & gas coverage we also like Reliance Industries (RIL)

  • RIL is one of India’s biggest conglomerates with a presence in oil refining & marketing and petrochemicals, oil & gas exploration, retail, digital services, media, etc, making it a well-diversified business entity

BUY with target price of ₹ 3050

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22E-25E)
Revenues (| crore) 566,949.7 514,894.9 728,459.9 10.3 919,917.3 812,267.4 774,573.2 2.1
EBITDA (| crore) 18,784.7 38,068.0 43,243.8 6.3 22,686.0 51,282.7 42,986.0 -0.2
Net Profit (| crore) 1,313.2 21,836.0 24,184.1 4.8 7,386.5 27,227.2 21,021.2 -4.6
EPS (|) 0.9 15.5 17.1 - 5.2 19.3 14.9 -
P/E (x) 87.1 5.2 4.7 - 15.5 4.2 5.4 -
Price / Book (x) 1.2 1.0 0.9 - 0.9 0.8 0.7 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 3.0 2.6 - 5.0 2.2 2.7 -
RoCE (%) 4.8 13.3 12.9 - 4.0 13.5 9.8 -
RoE (%) 1.4 19.8 18.4 - 5.8 18.9 13.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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RATING RATIONALE

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Buy: >15%

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Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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