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  • CMP : 161.8 Chg : -6.41 (-3.81%)
  • Target : 80.0 (12.68%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

01 Aug 2022

Weak marketing performance dents profitability…

About The Stock

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is India’s largest refining & marketing company with an installed refining capacity of ~70 MMT.

  • IOC operates 32062 retail outlets as of end of FY21
  • Petrol and diesel together historically constitute ~52% of marketing sales
Q1FY23 Results

IOC’s results were lower than estimates on the profitability front.

  • Revenue increased 22% QoQ to ₹ 251932.9 crore (our estimate:₹ 240101.8 crore). Marketing sales increased 5.4% QoQ to 23 MMT
  • Reported GRM was US$31.8/bbl while core GRM was US$25.3/bbl. Marketing profitability was lower than estimates as per our understanding. EBITDA was at ₹ 1358.9 crore, down 88.3% QoQ (estimate: ₹ 6191.2 crore)
  • The company reported a net loss of ₹ 1992.5 crore compared to PAT of ₹ 6021.9 crore in Q4FY22 (estimated PAT: ₹ 1936.9 crore)
What should Investors do?

IOC’s core GRM improved sharply in Q1FY23. We expect it to stabilise at lower levels taking into account recent product spreads trend. The company has not passed on higher crude oil costs to customers and weaker marketing profitability is likely to impact earnings in the near term.

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value IOC at ₹ 80 i.e. average of P/E multiple:₹ 82/share and P/BV multiple: ₹ 79/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Global product cracks sustaining at higher level
  • Passing on higher retail prices of petrol & diesel to customers (due to higher crude oil costs)
  • Pipeline segment profitability has been consistent over last few years
  • Consistent dividend payout
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from IOC, in our oil & gas coverage we also like Gail.

  • Gail is a beneficiary of increasing gas consumption. Stable volume growth along with higher profitability from gas trading, petchem and LPG segment due to higher oil prices will add value

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 180

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22E-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 605,923.8 566,949.7 514,894.9 728,459.9 10.3 925,943.9 833,129.7 6.9
EBITDA (| crore) 33,826.2 18,784.7 38,068.0 43,243.8 6.3 29,267.1 40,177.8 -3.6
Net Profit (| crore) 16,894.1 1,313.2 21,836.0 24,184.1 4.8 10,875.3 18,472.2 -12.6
EPS (|) 12.0 0.9 15.5 17.1 - 7.7 13.1 -
P/E (x) 6.0 76.6 4.6 4.2 - 9.3 5.4 -
Price / Book (x) 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 - 0.8 0.7 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 5.4 2.6 2.3 - 3.4 2.5 -
RoCE (%) 13.5 4.8 13.3 12.9 - 6.4 9.6 -
RoE (%) 15.5 1.4 19.8 18.4 - 8.3 13.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1FY23 Results: Core refining operations report healthy profits

  • IOC’s core GRM improved to US$25.3/bbl vs. US$13.5/bbl in Q4FY22. Inventory gain of US$6.5/bbl supported overall profitability of segment during the quarter
  • Going ahead, we expect GRM at US$16.6/bbl and US$9/bbl in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • Crude throughput was up 3.7% QoQ to 18.9 MMT (vs. our estimate: 19 MMT). We estimate crude throughput at 72.9 MMT and 72.4 MMT in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • The company’s overall marketing profitability was lower than estimates as per our understanding as the company did not pass on increased crude oil costs to customers in Q1FY23. Additionally, the company is likely to have faced inventory losses in the marketing segment post excise duty cut
  • We expect sales at 89 MMT and 92.5 MMT in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 2,51,932.9 2,40,102 1,55,056.3 62.5 2,06,460.9 22.0    
Raw materials costs 2,06,599.1 1,91,886 96,559.5 114.0 1,50,391.8 37.4    
Employees Cost 2,426.4 2,622.0 2,427.8 -0.1 3,193.8 -24.0    
Other Expenses 41,548.5 39,402.4 44,942.9 -7.6 41,247.9 0.7    
Total Expenditure 2,50,574.0 2,33,911 1,43,930.2 74.1 1,94,833.4 28.6    
EBITDA 1,358.9 6,191.2 11,126.1 -87.8 11,627.5 -88.3   Lower than estimates due to weaker profitability in marketing segment
EBITDA margins (%) 0.5 2.6 7.2 -664 bps 5.6 -509 bps    
Depreciation 2,847.1 3,256.4 2,634.2 8.1 2,887.3 -1.4    
EBIT -1,488.2 2,934.8 8,491.9 -117.5 8,740.2 -117.0    
Interest 1,724.7 1,388.6 1,257.0 37.2 1,607.2 7.3    
Other Income 683.7 1,043.2 563.6 21.3 951.7 -28.2   Lower than expected
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT -2,529.2 2,589.4 7,798.5 -132.4 8,084.7 -131.3    
Total Tax -536.7 652.5 1,857.1 -128.9 2,062.8 -126.0    
PAT -1,992.5 1,936.9 5,941.4 -133.5 6,021.9 -133.1    
                 
Key Metrics                
Exchange rate (|/$) 77.3 77.3 73.9 4.6 75.2 2.7    
Throughput (mmt) 18.9 19.0 16.7 13.3 18.3 3.7   In line with estimates
Sales (mmt) 23.0 22.3 18.7 22.6 21.8 5.4   Higher than expected
GRM ($/barrel) 31.8 26.5 6.6 383.4 18.5 71.6   IOC reported inventory gain of US$6.5/bbl. Core GRMs were at US$25.3/bbl  

Disclaimer

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