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  • CMP : 1,159.0 Chg : 39.70 (3.55%)
  • Target : 1,115.0 (17.12%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

13 Oct 2022

Strong IT services revenue guidance for FY23…

About The Stock

 

HCL Technologies (HCLT) offers IT, ER&D and products to BFSI, retail, health, telecommunication, manufacturing, media & hi-tech verticals.

  • HCL Tech has 250 Fortune 500 and 650 global 2000 clients
  • It has grown organically and inorganically (13% CAGR over FY17-22)
Q2FY23 Results:

 

HCLT reported strong Q2FY23 numbers.

  • The company reported 3.8% QoQ in CC terms. IT services grew 5.3% QoQ in CC terms while P&P declined 7.8% QoQ in CC terms due to seasonality
  • EBIT margin of IT services increased 100 bps QoQ while that of the company increased ~90 bps
  • TCV grew 16.1% QoQ & 6.2% YoY to US$2.4 billion
What should Investors do?

 

HCLT’s share price has grown by ~2.1x over the past five years (from ~₹ 455 in October 2017 to ~₹ 952 levels in October 2022).

  • We change our rating on the stock from HOLD to BUY
Target Price and Valuation

 

We value HCLT at ₹ 1115 i.e. 18x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
 
  • The company continues to win multiyear deals in Cloud transformation, cyber security, etc, as new deal bookings continue to be strong
  • Increased revenue guidance from 12-14% to 13.5-14.5% revenue growth in CC for FY23E while IT services guidance given at 16-17% provided visibility for growth.
  • Revival of P&P business is critical as it is a high margin business
  • With improvement in large deal wins, expansion in geographies, investment in sales & capabilities, we expect HCLT to register 11.8% CAGR in revenues over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

 

Apart from HCLT, in our IT coverage we also like TechM.

  • Key beneficiary of uptick communication spend
  •  BUY with target price of ₹ 1,170

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 70,678.0 75,379.0 85,651.0 12.9 101,551.7 111,706.9 119,638.1 11.8
EBITDA 16,694.0 19,481.5 20,041.0 14.2 22,036.7 24,408.0 26,081.1 9.2
Margins (%) 23.6 25.8 23.4 - 21.7 21.9 21.8 -
Net Profit 11,062.0 12,434.5 13,516.0 9.8 14,321.3 15,815.6 16,797.0 7.5
EPS (|) 40.8 45.8 49.8 - 52.8 58.3 61.9 -
P/E 23.3 20.8 19.1 - 18.0 16.3 15.4 -
RoNW (%) 21.6 20.8 21.8 - 21.9 23.0 23.3 -
RoCE (%) 23.0 23.5 24.2 - 25.8 27.4 28.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

 

  • Reported term: It reported rupee revenues of | 24,686 crore, up 5.2% QoQ & 19.5% YoY while dollar revenues came in at US$3,082 million (mn), up 1.5% QoQ, 10.4% YoY. IT business reported growth of 3.1% QoQ to US$2,268 mn, ER&D business reported revenues of US$524 mn, up 4.2% QoQ while P&P revenue declined to US$302 mn, down 9.6% QoQ

 

  • In CC terms: The company reported 3.8% QoQ revenue growth. IT business reported 5.3% QoQ growth, ER&D witnessed growth of 5% QoQ & P&P business declined by 7.8% QoQ

 

  • Guidance: The company increased the revenue guidance for FY23 on the back of strong order book from 12-14% growth in CC terms to 13.5-14.5% growth. The company has given IT Services growth guidance for the first time and is guiding for 16-17% revenue growth in CC for FY23

 

  • In CC terms: Vertical wise the growth was broad based with manufacturing leading the growth with 10.9% QoQ growth followed by public services, lifesciences, TMPE, BFSI, retail & technology reporting a growth of 6%, 5.1%, 4.1%, 3.7%, 3% & 2.4% QoQ growth, respectively. Geography wise Europe reported strong growth of 6.9% QoQ while America region grew 4.7% QoQ

 

  • At the company level, EBIT margin increased ~90 bps QoQ to 17.9%. IT services margin increased ~100 bps despite implementation of partial wage hikes. The sub-contractor cost declined 30 bps QoQ to 15% in Q2. The company indicated the following levers for improvement in margins a) improved realisations & utilisation benefits of 115 bps, b) operating leverage benefit of 45 bps and c) exchange rate gains due to currency depreciation of 55-60 bps

 

  • The company maintained lower end of the margin band to 18% while upper end has been reduced to 19%, resulting into EBIT margin guidance of 18-19% for FY23. HCLT indicated at the following levers for margin improvement, going forward: Price increase, improved utilisation, pyramid optimisation & operational efficiency

 

  • The company indicated that it has benefited from price revision for both new & existing contracts effective January 2022. It mentioned that it would continue to push price increase, going forward, as well

 

  • HCLT reiterated that the demand environment is strong despite macroeconomic uncertainties. The same is reflected in new TCV win of US$2.4 billion (bn), up 16.1%QoQ, 6.2% YoY. This was the fifth straight quarter of above US$2 bn TCV wins. The company won 11 new large deals of which eight were in services and three in P&P. The company also indicated that it aspires to win US$2-2.5 bn deals every quarter indicating the growth momentum will continue

 

  • The company mentioned that it won a mega deal, which will contribute ~US$125 mn to revenue from FY24 onwards. HCLT mentioned that the deal was won due the client being an existing client of the acquired P&P business indicating the synergy of P&P business for winning new deals in its services business
  • HCLT net addition for the quarter was strong at 8,359 employees taking its overall employee headcount to 219,325. The company continue to guide for freshers in the range of 30,000-35,000 for FY23 but indicated that fresher hiring would be closer to the lower end of that band
  • LTM attrition remained constant at 23.8% but the company indicated that it is witnessing a decline in quarterly attrition and expects attrition to moderate from H2FY23 onwards
  • The company indicated that clients continue to accelerate their digital transformation journey as it is simplifying their business operating models and simplifying some its processes. The clients continue to benefit from revenue enhancement as well as cost optimisation programs where technology is an enabler
  • The company during the quarter restructured its organization. As per the new structure, Rahul Singh, former President Global Financial Services Business was appointed as COO - Corporate Functions. Srinivasan Sheshadri, former Financial Head of Americas region, has been appointed as head of Global Financial service. Ramchandran Sundarajan, former America region HR head, has been appointed as Global HR Head. Appa Rao, former CHRO, has been appointed as Delivery Head – Near Shore
  • The company declared an interim dividend of | 10 per share
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY23E   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 24,686 24,428 20,655 19.5 23,464 5.2 Reported 3.8% QoQ CC growth aided by IT services, which reported 5.3% QoQ CC growth
Cost of sales (including 16,236 16,074 13,127 23.7 15,457 5.0  
employee expenses)              
Gross Margin 8,450 8,354 7,528 12.2 8,007 5.5  
Gross margin (%) 34.2 34.2 36.4 -222 bps 34.1 11 bps  
Selling & marketing costs 3,024 3,176 2,690 12.4 3,032 -0.3  
               
EBITDA 5,426 5,179 4,838 12.2 4,975 9.1  
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.0 21.2 23.4 -144 bps 21.2 78 bps  
Depreciation 998 977 922 8.2 983 1.5  
EBIT 4,428 4,202 3,916 13.1 3,992 10.9  
EBIT Margin (%) 17.9 17.2 19.0 -102 bps 17.0 92 bps EBIT margin for IT services was up 100 bps QoQ. Gross margin improvement was aided by realisation & utilisation benefits (115 bps), operating leverage 45 bps, exchange rate 55bps
Other income 157 350 207 NA 345 -54.5  
PBT 4,585 4,552 4,123 11.2 4,337 5.7  
Tax paid 1,096 1,092 846 29.6 1,056 3.8 PAT was higher due to strong operating performance 
PAT 3,490 3,464 3,264 6.9 3,283 6.3  

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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