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  • CMP : 1,162.0 Chg : -23.90 (-2.02%)
  • Target : 1,565.0 (28.81%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Oct 2022

Margin pressure mars Q2 performance…

About The Stock

Havells India (HIL) is India’s leading electrical appliances & equipment manufacturer with a diversified product portfolio consisting of switchgears, cables, electrical consumer durables and lighting & fixtures. Apart from ‘Havells’, HIL’s other major brands include Crabtree, Standard, Reo and Lloyd.

  • In all its business segments, Havells has a strong presence in the organised product category with market share ranging between 6% and 20%
  • Robust balance sheet with RoE & RoCE of 19% & 24%, respectively (five-year average), with stringent working capital policy
Q2FY23 Results

Strong revenue growth; high cost inventory dragged margins.

  • Revenue up ~14% YoY to ₹ 3668.9 crore led by 12% volume growth. Wire & cable and Lloyd segments drove overall volume growth for the company
  • Gross margin saw a sharp fall mainly due to absorption of high cost inventory. Overall EBITDA margin fell ~595 bps YoY, 72 bps QoQ to 7.8%
  • PAT declined ~38% YoY to ~₹ 187 crore, tracking lower EBITDA margin
What should Investors do?

Strong B2C brand, focus on market share gains of Lloyd through improved product mix and dealer addition. The company’s share price has grown ~2.3x in the last five years.

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at 58x FY24E EPS with a revised target price of ₹ 1565/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Total ~1.7 crore new houses under PMAY, urbanisation and rising aspiration level will give a significant boost to demand for home appliances
  • Revival in the Lloyd business through new launches and improvement in segment margin
  • It aims to increase its town penetration from current 1150 to 2000 and retail touch points from 1.6 lakh to 2.5 lakh over the next five years
  • Model revenue, earnings CAGR of ~16% & 19%, respectively, in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Polycab India in our coverage.

  • Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22-24%. In FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. Robust b/s with a three-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3300

Key Financial Summary

| Crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 10,067.8 9,429.2 10,427.9 13,888.5 17.8 16,232.6 18,584.8 15.7
EBITDA 1,183.9 1,027.4 1,565.2 1,757.6 16.4 1,642.6 2,416.2 17.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.8 10.9 15.0 12.7 - 10.1 13.0 -
PAT 787.4 733.0 1,039.6 1,194.7 17.2 1,105.3 1,694.3 19.1
EPS (|) 12.6 11.7 16.7 19.1 - 17.6 27.1 -
P/E (x) 96.3 103.4 72.9 63.7 - 68.8 44.9 -
Price/Book Value (x) 18.1 17.6 14.7 12.7 - 13.4 12.9 -
Mcap/Sales 7.6 8.1 7.3 5.5 - 4.7 4.1 -
RoE (%) 18.8 17.0 20.1 20.0 - 19.4 28.7 -
RoCE (%) 25.4 19.6 24.9 23.7 - 23.0 33.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

              Q2FY23 Results: Growth in topline, margins remain impacted…

  • Havells’ topline growth came in at ~14% YoY to | 3668.9 crore, led by ~12% volume growth
  • Segment wise revenues for Q2FY23 were as follows; Lloyd up 21.3% YoY to | 414 crore, electrical consumer durable (ECD) up 6.2% YoY to | 773.5 crore, wire & cables up ~19% YoY to | 1359.4 crore, switchgears up 10.2% YoY to | 487.8 crore, lighting & fixtures up 12% YoY to | 397 crore and others up 12.3% YoY to | 237.2 crore, respectively
  • ECD grew, albeit a slow pace, mainly due to slower offtake of fans. Trade channels are more focused on de-stocking of fans amid transition to new BEE norms, which will be applicable from January 2023
  • On a three-year CAGR basis, switchgear and cable revenues increased 10% & 18%, respectively, lighting & ECD revenues increased 16% each, respectively. Lloyd grew at a higher rate of 32% supported by new product launches and dealer additions
  • Havells’ EBITDA margin at 7.8% declined ~595 bps YoY, mainly due to lower gross margin. Gross margin declined ~377 bps YoY due to absorption of high cost inventory
  • The topline growth was insufficient to offset the pressure on EBITDA margin, resulting in a 38% YoY fall in net profit to ~| 187 crore

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Future Demand Outlook:

  • The company witnessed strong volume growth of 12% led by its wire & cable and Lloyd segments
  • According to the management, the demand environment is stable with a revival in real estate, infrastructure investment as well as build-up of festive demand. Increase in government capex as well as pickup in rural demand
    • There was also a significant rise in demand for cables on the B2B side
    • The management expects demand for water heaters and kitchen appliances to pick up from Q3FY23 onwards as seasonal demand rises during this period
    • Due to BEE norms, de-stocking in fans is expected to continue for another quarter and is expected to normalise from Q4FY23
    • The company has gained market share in the fans segment

Margins:

  • Margins remained impacted in Q2FY23 due to absorption of high-cost inventory and passing on the benefit of falling raw material prices at the same time
  • According to the management, the high cost inventory has now got exhausted and margins are expected to stabilise from Q3FY23 onwards

Lloyd:

  • The company is focusing on launching new products and dealer addition in new geographies. Revenue growth in the Lloyd business in Q2FY23 was completely volume led
  • Lloyd is among the top three players in the AC segment, according to the management
  • The company expects low double digit contribution margin for Lloyd business from Q4FY23 onwards
  • Due to the change in BEE norms, price hikes will be taken in the Lloyd segment in Q3FY23 and Q4FY23
  • Taking advantage of the China+1 strategy, the company is looking at expanding its AC exports and entering new geographies as well
  • The facility in Sri City, Andhra Pradesh for production of ACs is expected to start functioning from Q4FY23

 

Capex:

  • Havells has planned a capex of ~| 1000-1200 crore. This capex will be done over FY23 and FY24. Out of this, ~| 700 crore will be spent in FY23

Disclaimer

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