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  • CMP : 1,388.4 Chg : -34.40 (-2.42%)
  • Target : 4,570.0 (18.70%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

21 Oct 2022

Attrition lowest among IT services companies…

About The Stock

Coforge offers system integration, apps & BPO services to BFSI, travel & healthcare verticals.

  • Revenues grew at 18.1% CAGR in the past five years
  • Healthy OCF, EBITDA (~75%) and robust return ratios (RoCE > 20%)
Q2FY23 Results:

Coforge reported strong Q2FY23 results.

  • Revenue grew 6.2% QoQ in CC terms & 3.4% QoQ in dollar terms
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin improved ~190 bps QoQ to 18.4%
  • Attrition declined 160 bps QoQ to 16.4%
What should Investors do?

Coforge’s share price has grown by ~6.9x over the past five years (from ~₹ 612 in October 2017 to ~₹ 3850 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Coforge at ₹ 4570 i.e. 24x P/E on FY25E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Increase in deal size; signed a US$105 mn BFS deal (for four years), insurance US$20 million (three years), healthy order book to drive growth
  • Bottoming out of travel vertical (in US), preferred partnership with Fortune 500 insurance & Tier 1 banking companies, recent acquisition and aggressive hiring to drive 16.8% revenue CAGR over FY22-25E
  • A 170 bps improvement in margins over FY22-25E due to offshoring, higher fresher additions and utilisation improvement
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Coforge, in our IT coverage we also like LTI.

  • LTI and Mindtree to create a large entity of US$3.5 billion revenue through merger. The combined entity will enjoy scale benefit, large order wins etc

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 5,525

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 4,183.9 4,662.8 6,432.0 18.1 8,107.6 9,235.0 10,240.5 16.8
EBITDA 719.8 786.5 1,115.4 18.1 1,532.3 1,754.7 1,945.7 20.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 17.2 16.9 17.3 - 18.9 19.0 19.0 -
Net Profit 444.1 455.6 661.8 12.7 918.4 1,061.1 1,182.6 21.3
EPS (|) 71.4 73.3 106.5 - 147.8 170.8 190.3 -
P/E 53.9 52.5 36.1 - 26.0 22.5 20.2 -
RoNW (%) 18.5 18.5 24.2 - 28.4 27.8 26.4 -
RoCE (%) 23.0 23.3 25.6 - 31.6 31.2 30.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • US$ revenues grew 3.4% QoQ to US$246.9 million while growth in CC terms was 6.2% QoQ. The company reported rupee revenues of | 1,959.4 crore, up 7.1% QoQ

 

  • In CC terms, geography wise EMEA region (38.5% of mix) grew at strong rate of 12.9% QoQ while Americas region (51.3% mix) grew 4.5%. RoW region revenues declined 3.7% QoQ due to contraction of India business

 

  • Vertical wise in CC terms, BFS (31.7% of mix) reported strong revenue growth of 14% QoQ while insurance & travel reported growth of 5.7% & 4.9% QoQ, respectively. Other reported a marginal decline of 0.9% QoQ

 

  • Adjusted EBITDA margins (ex. Esop expenses) increased ~190 bps to 18.4%. The company indicated the following levers for this expansion: a) increase in offshore mix, b) increase in utilisation as freshers become billable, c) higher contribution of high margin business, d) operational efficiency and e) currency depreciation. The company indicated that only ~10 bps of the tailwind impact was contributed by currency depreciation while rest 180 bps was others contributions

 

  • The company indicated that there was a significant pick-up in offshore business mix. Coforge indicated that its offshore mix has increased from 36% in Q2FY21 to ~50% in Q2FY23. The company indicated that this shift is key lever for margin improvement

 

  • Coforge has maintained its revenue guidance, as it continues to guide at least 20% CC revenue growth in FY23. The company also indicated that it expects minimal impact of furloughs in H2FY23. Coforge maintained its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance band at 18.5-19%. The company indicated that revenue growth drivers, going forward, would be i) continued healthy TCV, ii) continued strong performance from its top clients, iii) continued momentum on large deals. Coforge is confident of surpassing US$1 bn revenues in FY23 while it has set an internal target to reach US$2 bn annual revenues mark in the next five years (i.e. FY23-28) while it is hopeful of achieving the same well within that timeframe

 

  • The company indicated that EMEA region continues to be strong for them and their exposure there is limited to banking and travel vertical only. They do not have exposure to any other sector. In Europe, the company has strong relationship with clients. However, it remained cautiously optimistic on this territory due to unfolding geopolitical risks

 

  • The company indicated that BFS growth continues to be strong on account of healthy deal wins in the previous quarters. Coforge also mentioned that it has a negligible exposure to mortgage business (2 to 2.5% mix). Hence, it does not see any impact on this vertical due to macro concerns. It also indicated that going in CY23, client spending growth in this vertical is expected to be in the range of mid to high single digit. The company mentioned that cost optimisation programs, automation and cloud transformation are some of the areas where tech spending continue to be strong in this vertical. Data analytics is also one of the growth drivers in this segment

 

  • Coforge mentioned that travel vertical continue to be strong for them as it is now above pre-Covid levels. The company did mention that demand continues to be strong on traditional businesses like airlines, hotels and logistics while it sees some moderation in tech spending in some of the subsectors like cruise, etc, which is discretionary in nature, where the company is watchful for the next six to nine months

 

  • The company has won two US$30 mn+ deals in this quarter. First deal is for three years with large wealth management provider while second deal is with large size bank, also for three years, wherein the bank is looking to spend US$2 bn over the next few years for cloud migration for its global offices including US, UK, Poland, Hong Kong and India, etc

 

  • Coforge indicated that its tax rate for the quarter was low at 17.7% due to one-time benefit of the loss booked by one of its foreign subsidiary company. The company indicated that it expects the tax rate would be in range of 21-22% for FY23
    • Coforge added 11 new clients during the quarter. The company reported fresh order intake of US$304 mn, down 3.5% QoQ during the quarter. This was the third successive quarter of the company reporting above US$300 mn+ of fresh order taking its total executable order book over the next 12 months to US$ 802 mn. The company indicated that with the robust order book & strong pipeline it expects the sustained revenue growth in H2FY23

 

  • The LTM attrition declined 160 bps QoQ to 16.4%, which is the lowest among the IT services companies. The company mentioned that its low attrition rate could be partly explained by support and care it provided to its employees during pandemic and partly by industry par wage hikes. Coforge also reported that its utilisation including trainees has increased by 110 bps QoQ to 77.3%

 

  • The company indicated that as far as net hiring trend is concerned, it remained strong in IT headcount, which added more than 1000+ people in H1 while for BPO business, it is down on net basis, resulting into muted addition on overall basis. Coforge indicated that hiring trend in BPO business is as per plan when they acquired SLK global business to bring in more automation in this space. The company also mentioned that SLK global business also has an exposure to mortgage business and hence current hiring trends are reflection of the same. It indicated that now they are integrating tech solutions in their BPO business to enhance volumes going forward. The company also indicated that this business i.e. BPO is not margin dilutive on the overall entity

 

  • On pricing, Coforge indicated that it will be a minor lever for margin expansion but it also mentioned that they did not receive any material price hikes so far and are pushing clients for price hike

 

  • The company indicated that it has delayed its ADR offering for a time being as it feels the market is not conducive for the same

 

  • The company declared an interim dividend of | 13 per share
 
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY23E   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue in USD           246.9          247.1        212.8 16.0        238.7 3.4 Revenue increased by 6.2% QoQ in CC terms 
Revenue 1,959.4 1,971.5 1,569.4 24.9 1,829.4 7.1  
Employee expenses 1,331.6 1,350.5 1,065.6 25.0 1,273.9 4.5  
               
Gross Margin 627.8 621.0 503.8 24.6 555.5 13.0  
Gross margin (%) 32.0 31.5 32.1 -6 bps 30.4 168 bps  
SG&A expenses 282.9 276.0 230.1 22.9 263.7 7.3  
               
EBITDA 344.9 345.0 273.7 26.0 291.8 18.2  
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.6 17.5 17.4 16 bps 16.0 165 bps adjusted Margin were up by 190 bps out of which 10bps was a benefit from currency while 180bps was on account of improved utilisation
Depreciation & amortisation 61.4 70.0 59.8 2.7 63.0 -2.5  
EBIT 283.5 275.0 213.9 32.5 228.8 23.9  
EBIT Margin (%) 14.5 13.9 13.6 84 bps 12.5 196 bps  
Other income (less interest) -15.0 -12.0 -7.7 94.8 -7.6 97.4  
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 NM 0.0 NM  
PBT 268.5 263.0 206.2 30.2 221.2 21.4  
Tax paid 47.4 65.8 44.6 6.3 49.3 -3.9  
PAT 201.6 182.3 146.8 37.3 149.7 34.7  

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