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  • CMP : 1,409.9 Chg : -3.50 (-0.25%)
  • Target : 1,010.0 (18.54%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 Feb 2023

Weak performance but outlook remains strong…

About The Stock

Bharat Dynamics (BDL) is one of the leading defence PSUs in India engaged in the manufacture of surface to air missiles (SAMs), anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), air to air missiles (AAMs), underwater weapons, launchers, countermeasures and test equipment.

  • During FY22, BDL reported revenue of ₹ 2817 crore, which increased 47.2% YoY. EBITDA and PAT increased 110.6% and 93.9% YoY in FY22 to ₹ 726 crore and ₹ 500 crore, respectively
  • Order book was at ₹ 11906 crore as of November 2022 end
Q3FY23

Weak execution.

  • Revenue declined 42.6% YoY and 13.7% QoQ to ₹ 461.6 crore; lower than estimates due to weak execution
  • EBITDA margin contracted by 1674 bps YoY to 19.3% due to significant rise in others cost. EBITDA declined 69.3% YoY to ₹ 88.9 crore
  • PAT declined 61.1% YoY to ₹ 83.7 crore
What should Investors do?

We expect BDL to deliver revenue, EBITDA CAGR of 20.4%, 19.9%, respectively, in FY22-25E. PAT is likely to grow at 23.5% CAGR (FY22-25E).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value BDL at ₹ 1010 on 20x P/E on FY25E EPS basis.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Order book at ₹ 11906 crore (3.8x TTM revenues) gives strong revenue visibility. Moreover, ₹ 20000 crore worth of orders are in the pipeline (Akash surface to air missile, medium range surface to air missiles, Mistral man portable air defence system, advanced short range air-to-air missile, etc)
  • Expanding capabilities to enhance market position and competitiveness. Continuous investment in R&D and expanding infrastructure to develop new generation products
  • Huge opportunity in exports (Akash SAM, ATGMs, Astra, Torpedoes) driven by rising interest from friendly countries and lower cost on high indigenisation levels
Bharat Electronics

Apart from BDL, we like Bharat Electronics (BEL) in the defence space.

  • Strong order book & healthy pipeline in defence electronics offers strong visibility; diversifying into non-defence to help improve margins

BUY with a target price of ₹ 130/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 4 Year CAGR (FY19-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Revenues 3,104.9 1,913.8 2,817.2 -2.8 3,185.8 4,111.6 4,913.9 20.4
EBITDA 755.5 344.7 725.9 5.3 746.9 1,037.5 1,252.7 19.9
EBITDA margin (%) 24.3 18.0 25.8 - 23.4 25.2 25.5 -
Net Profit 534.9 257.8 491.5 5.2 586.4 778.7 925.2 23.5
EPS (|) 29.2 14.1 26.8 - 32.0 42.5 50.5 -
P/E (x) 29.2 60.6 30.3 - 26.6 20.1 16.9 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.8 40.8 18.9 - 17.8 12.7 10.3 -
RoCE (%) 28.6 12.8 24.7 - 24.2 28.0 28.5 -
RoE (%) 20.5 9.6 17.0 - 17.3 20.1 20.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Analysis

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
Operating Income 461.6 862.6 803.7 -42.6 534.8 -13.7 Revenue lower than estimates on lower than expected execution
Other income 36.5 27.8 34.7 5.2 45.0 -19.0  
Total Revenue 498.0 890.4 838.4 -40.6 579.8 -14.1  
Raw materials costs 139.5 388.2 292.6 -52.3 238.4 -41.5  
Employees Expenses 117.4 163.9 152.7 -23.1 144.8 -18.9  
Other Expenses 115.8 77.6 69.1 67.5 57.7 100.5  
Total Expenditure 372.7 629.7 514.4 -27.6 440.9 -15.5  
EBITDA 88.9 232.9 289.3 -69.3 93.9 -5.3  
EBITDA margins (%) 19.3 27.0 36.0 -1674 bps 17.5 171 bps Margins also came lower than estimates on higher other cost
Interest 0.8 1.0 0.8   0.8    
Depreciation 18.6 27.0 24.6 -24.3 21.3 -12.7  
Tax 22.2 60.5 85.3 -74.0 40.9 -45.8  
PAT 83.7 172.2 215.5 -61.1 75.8 10.5  
  • Revenue for the quarter declined 42.6% YoY to | 461.6 crore; significantly lower than our estimate of | 862.6 crore. Sequentially, revenue declined 13.7%. The de-growth in revenue both YoY and QoQ shows muted execution during the quarter in its existing contracts. 9MFY23 revenue was up 17.8% YoY as the revenue was significantly up during Q1FY23 (+440.3% YoY) on lower base

 

  • Gross margins improved 619 bps YoY and 1436 bps QoQ to 69.8% as raw material cost declined considerably both YoY and QoQ. EBITDA margins came in at 19.3% (vs. estimate of 27%); down 1674 bps YoY led by significantly higher others cost (25.1% of sales in Q3FY23 vs. 8.6% of sales in Q3FY22). Sequentially, EBITDA margin improved 171 bps. 9MFY23 EBITDA margin was also down 911 bps YoY at 13.3%

 

  • EBITDA declined 69.3% YoY (-5.3% QoQ) to | 88.9 crore (vs. estimate of
    | 232.9 crore). The 9MFY23 EBITDA was down significantly by 30.1% YoY to | 224.8 crore

 

  • PAT was at | 83.7 crore, down 61.1% YoY led by a decline in revenues and contraction in margins. 9MFY23 PAT was down 15.5% YoY to | 199.4 crore

 

  • Order backlog was at | 11906 crore as of November 2022 end (3.8x TTM revenues)

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