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Balkrishna Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,348.4 Chg : 14.05 (0.60%)
  • Target : 2,475.0 (30.95%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 May 2022

Robust demand prospect, margin recovery lies ahead

About The Stock

Balkrishna Industries (BIL) is the leader in the niche tyre segment used in heavy machinery for mining and agriculture purposes.

  • Exports form a lion’s share of its sales at ~80% of its revenues
  • Channel mix: replacement account for ~69% while OEM share is pegged at ~28%. Agriculture accounts for ~66% of volumes with OTR share at ~31%
  • It has consistently operated with high (>20%) margins & return ratios
Q4FY22 Results

BIL reported a mixed set of numbers for Q4FY22.

  • Standalone net sales for the quarter were at ₹ 2,374 crore, up 16.9% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins in Q4FY22 came in at 21%, down 80 bps QoQ
  • PAT was at ₹ 373.3 crore, up 13.7% QoQ
What should Investors do?

BIL’s share price has run up ~21% CAGR over the past five years, (~₹ 750 levels in May 2017), thereby vastly outperforming Nifty Auto index

  • We retain BUY amid robust demand outlook, portfolio attributable to healthy financials (high return ratios, EBITDA margins & 20%+ dividend pay-outs)
Target Price Valuation

We value BIL at revised target price of ₹ 2,475 i.e. 24x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 103.2 (earlier target price ₹ 2,650).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Ambition to double global market share to ~10% vs. ~5-6% currently
  • Robust demand across user segments (agri, OTR) to propel volume growth
  • With brownfield expansion and backward integration in place amid healthy demand prospects we expect sales, PAT to grow at a CAGR of 21.1%, 18.9%, respectively, over FY22-24E. Margins are seen at 25% in FY24E
  • Strong cash flow generation amid calibrated capex spend to result in healthy FCF generation and consequent retaining net debt free b/s by FY24E
Alternate Stock Idea

In our auto ancillary coverage we like JK Tyre.

  • Walking the talk on b/s deleveraging, sweating of assets & capital efficiency

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 170

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22P) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22P-24E)
Net Sales 5,244.5 4,782.5 5,757.9 8,266.7 16.9 10,631.7 12,121.7 21.1
EBITDA 1,311.1 1,249.3 1,785.5 1,975.5 11.8 2,447.3 3,036.1 24.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 25.0 26.1 31.0 23.9 - 23.0 25.0 -
Net Profit 782.0 945.0 1,155.4 1,410.7 14.6 1,573.8 1,994.2 18.9
EPS (₹) 40.5 48.9 59.8 73.0 - 81.4 103.2 -
P/E 46.7 38.7 31.6 25.9 - 23.2 18.3 -
RoNW (%) 16.7 18.8 19.2 20.4 - 19.4 20.7 -
RoCE (%) 16.7 14.4 19.3 15.9 - 18.0 21.7 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Balkrishna Industries (BIL) reported a mixed performance in Q4FY22
  • Standalone revenues at | 2,374 crore were up 16.9% QoQ. Tonnage for the quarter was up ~10% QoQ to 77,119 MT
  • EBITDA in Q4FY22 was at | 499.5 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 21%. Gross margin expansion was sharp at ~110 bps QoQ while other expenses (driven by higher freight costs) were up ~290 bps QoQ, resulting in overall decline in margin trajectory
  • Consequent PAT for the quarter came in at | 373.7 crore, up 13.7% QoQ. Net profitability was higher largely tracking lower effective tax rate
  • The company announced a final dividend of | 4/ share taking the total dividend outlay at | 28/share for FY22 (which includes one-time special dividend of | 12/share

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Management commentary on demand remained strong despite strong inflationary scenario
  • Total production capacity for FY23 is expected to be 3.6 lakh MTPA with sales guidance of 3.2- to 3.3 lakh MTPA for FY23
  • Margin performance was muted largely on account of freight & fuel charges
  • Total capex plan of | 1,900 crore for expanding capacity was made of which ~| 1,000 crore had already been done with balance | 900 crore to be done in FY23
  • Waluj plant on which refurbishment plan has been put on hold to garner strong demand and quicker production schedule demanded by end customers
  • Inventory at the company was at higher level as of FY22 due to higher shipping time and elevated raw material prices
  • Price hike to the extent of 2-3% has been taken in February to counter rising input prices with further 3-4% planned in June, with full year price hikes in tandem with competition at ~15-16%. BIL tyres are cheaper than competition by ~12-15%. The management expects the same to continue, going forward. BIL’s propensity to pass on the price hike is favourable given the higher cost of production at its competition
  • Gross debt was at | 2,443 crore of which | 1,942 crore related to working capital with long term debt at ~| 500 crore
  • Out of total carbon black production almost 80% would be for captive consumption rest 20% would be sold in external markets. Carbon black sales amounts to <3% of total sales in FY22
  • For Q4FY22, cost of natural rubber (per kg) was at | 150 synthetic rubber was at | 175/kg, carbon black was at | 98/kg with natural rubber expected to be at same levels in Q1FY23
  • Bhuj power generation plant with additional 20 Mw capacity to be operational in the next two to three months with Bhuj plant sourcing 100% power from same plant

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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