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ACC Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,405.2 Chg : -6.85 (-0.28%)
  • Target : 2,600.0 (18.18%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 Apr 2022

Ongoing expansions on track; fuel cost remain a near-term concern

About The Stock

ACC (Holicim group company) is large cement player with capacity of over 34.5MT in India and one of the oldest cement player in the Industry. The company also manufactures ready-mix concrete and has 50 plants across India.

  • ACC has strong balance-sheet with debt free status. However, it remains laggard in terms of efficiency and operating margins vs peer companies
  • The ongoing capex of ₹3500 crore would increase its capacity to 39.3MT by CY22E. GU in Sindri & Tikaria already been commissioned, balance 3.2MT new capacities are progressing as per the schedule
Q1CY22 update

ACC reported mixed set of results for Q1CY22.

  • Revenues were up 3.1%YoY led by higher realisations (up 6.6% YoY). Sales volume were lower by 3.3% YoY to 7.71MT (I-direct est: 7.2MT).
  • Absolute EBITDA to ₹634.6 crore (down 26.2% YoY, up 14.1% QoQ), higher than estimated EBITDA of ₹576.9 crore due to lower RM & freightcost. Reported EBITDA/t came in at ₹823/t vs our estimated EBITDA/t of ₹735/t.
  • PAT of ₹396.3 crore was down 29.6% YoY. However it was higher than expected PAT of ₹344 crore for the quarter
What should Investors do?

ACC’s share price has grown by ~1.9x over the past three years (from ~₹ 1350 in Feb 2019 to ~₹ 2570 levels in Nov 2021).

Given the healthy demand outlook and comfortable valuations, we remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock

Target Price Valuation

We value ACC at ₹ 2600/share i.e.12x CY23E EV/EBITDA (ie at implied EV/tonne valuation of $140/t)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company is raising its capacity to 39.3MT that entails capex of ~₹3500 crore which would be funded through internal accrual
  • Efficiency measures taken under Project Parvat are visible, the cost gap between ACC and other large players has shrink to ~9% vs ~15% earlier.
  • The potential holcim’s exit from India to keep supporting the valuations given its size and brand value as it is available at ~24% discount to its current replacement value
New Stock Ideas

Apart from ACC, in our cement sector coverage we also like Ultratech Cement.

  • It is a market leader with strong brand in the retail segment. It has a robust balance sheet and aims to become debt free by FY23E.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 8000/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 3 Year CAGR CY22E CY23E 2 Year CAGR (FY21-FY23E)
Net Sales 14,477.5 15,407.0 13,785.7 16,151.6 3.7 17,906.3 19,253.4 9.2
EBITDA 1,724.0 2,162.2 2,355.0 2,998.1 20.3 2,418.6 3,132.4 2.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 11.9 14.0 17.1 18.6 - 13.5 16.3 -
Adjusted Net Profit 1,020.0 1,377.5 1,606.2 1,917.7 23.4 1,455.8 2,000.1 2.1
EPS (|) 54.3 73.3 85.5 102.1 - 77.5 106.4 -
EV/EBITDA 22.2 17.0 14.6 10.9 - 13.3 9.9 -
EV/tonne ($) 163.6 157.0 147.3 135.7 - 123.6 113.1 -
RoNW 9.7 11.9 12.6 13.4 - 9.5 11.9 -
RoCE 14.2 17.4 14.7 17.6 - 12.7 15.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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