INDICES SLIDE FOR 3RD DAY, NIFTY ENDS BELOW 23,600; VIX SLIPS BELOW 14 MARK

The key equity benchmarks closed with minor losses on Friday, marking the third consecutive day of decline. This occurred despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announcing its first interest rate cut in nearly five years, a move widely anticipated to stimulate economic growth. Analysts suggest that the market`s subdued response to the RBI`s decision may stem from a lack of clear policy direction from the central bank.

The Nifty index concluded the day below the 23,600 mark. While metal and consumer durable shares saw increased demand, shares in PSU banks and FMCG companies fell. �

The S&P BSE Sensex declined 197.97 points or 0.25% to 77,860.19. The Nifty 50 index lost 43.40 points or 0.18% to 23,559.95.

ITC (down 2.38%), ICICI Bank (down 1.19%) and Reliance Industries (down 1.15%) were major drags.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.13% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index fell 0.68%.

The market breadth was weak. On the BSE, 1520 shares rose and 2402 shares fell. A total of 142 shares were unchanged.

The NSE`s India VIX, a gauge of the market`s expectation of volatility over the near term, tumbled 3.45% to 13.69.

Economy:

The Reserve Bank of India�s (RBI) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Friday cut the repo rate�the rate at which the RBI lends to other banks�by 25 basis points to 6.25% after keeping it unchanged for two years. This was the first RBI policy under the new Governor Sanjay Malhotra.

This is the first rate cut initiated by the RBI in five years, the last one being in May 2020. RBI, however, continues with the neutral monetary policy stance and remains unambiguously focused on a durable alignment of inflation with the target while supporting growth.

The decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2% while supporting growth, the central bank noted.

Looking ahead, healthy rabi prospects and an expected recovery in industrial activity should support economic growth in 2025-26. Real GDP growth for 2025-26 is projected at 6.7% with Q1 at 6.7%; Q2 at 7.0%; and Q3 and Q4 at 6.5% each. The risks are evenly balanced.

Going ahead, food inflation pressures, absent any supply side shock, should see a significant softening due to good kharif production, winter-easing in vegetable prices and favourable rabi crop prospects. Assuming a normal monsoon next year, CPI inflation for 2025-26 is projected at 4.2% with Q1 at 4.5%; Q2 at 4.0%; Q3 at 3.8%; and Q4 at 4.2%.

The MPC noted that inflation has declined. Supported by a favourable outlook on food and continuing transmission of past monetary policy actions, it is expected to further moderate in 2025-26, gradually aligning with the target.

Numbers to Track:

The yield on India`s 10-year benchmark federal paper grew 2.34% to 6.813 as compared with the previous close of 6.764.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 87.4400 compared with its close of 87.5900 during the previous trading session.

MCX Gold futures for 4 April 2025 settlement rose 0.27% to Rs 84,673.

The US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback`s value against a basket of currencies, was up 0.08% to 107.79.

The United States 10-year bond yield shed 0.09% to 4.434.

In the commodities market, Brent crude for April 2025 settlement added 59 cents or 0.79% to $74.88 a barrel.

Global Markets:

Most European indices declined on Friday as corporate earnings, monetary policy, and key U.S. job data remained in focus. Investors are also waiting for French and German import and export data, house price data from the U.K., and an industrial production print from Spain.

Bank of England cut its key rate by 25 basis points and signaled more cuts were on the horizon in 2025.

Asian stocks ended mixed as investors assessed Japan�s household spending data. The country�s household spending in December rose 2.7% year on year in real terms.

A robust labor market could strengthen the Fed`s resolve to maintain current interest rates, as the central bank has indicated its intention to do, citing concerns about persistent inflation.

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%, while the S&P 500 added 0.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, declining 0.28%.

Amazon.com Inc. shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading after the e-commerce giant projected first-quarter 2025 sales between $151 billion and $155.5 billion, missing analysts` expectations.

Stocks in Spotlight:

ITC fell 2.38%. The company reported a 1.2% rise in net profit to Rs 5,638 crore on a 8.6% increase in net revenue to Rs 17,726 crore in Q3 FY25 as compared with Q3 FY24. The company`s FMCG � Others business has reported 4% YoY growth in revenue to Rs 5,418 crore in Q3 FY25, amidst muted demand conditions. The revenue from Cigarettes rose by 7.8% YoY to Rs 8,136 crore in the third quarter. Adjusted for excise duty/NCCD on sales, the revenue is higher by 8.1% YoY, mainly driven by growth in volumes. The Hotels business has recorded 14.6% YoY growth in revenue to Rs 922 crore. The business has been demerged into ITC Hotels (ITCHL) w.e.f. 01 January 2025. ITCHL shares listed on stock exchanges on 29 January 2025.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) added 1.86% after the company reported a 19.06% jump in standalone net profit to Rs 2,964.31 crore in Q3 FY25 compared with Rs 2,489.73 crore in Q3 FY24. Revenue from operations jumped 20.31% YoY to Rs 30,963.76 crore in Q3 FY25.

Bharti Airtel jumped 3.60% after the telecom major`s consolidated net profit soared 460.93% to Rs 16,134.6 crore in Q3 FY25 as against Rs 2,876.4 crore reported in Q3 FY24. Revenue from operations increased 19.07% YoY to Rs 45,129.3 crore in Q3 FY25. Average revenue per user (ARPU) for the quarter stood at Rs 245, up 17.78% over Rs 208 in Q3 FY24.

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) added 2.54% after the company reported a 100% surge in consolidated net profit to Rs 219.7 crore in Q3 FY25 as compared with Rs 108.2 crore in Q3 FY24. Revenue from operations soared 108% to Rs 773.5 crore in Q3 FY25 as compared with Rs 371.5 crore in Q3 FY24.

PG Electroplast rallied 3% after the company�s consolidated net profit surged 108.7% to Rs 40.14 crore in Q3 FY25 as against Rs 19.24 crore posted in Q3 FY24. Revenue from operations surged 81.9% to Rs 967.69 crore in the quarter ended 31 December 2024.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders added 1.56% after the company�s consolidated net profit surged 28.75% to Rs 807.04 crore on a 33.06% jump in revenue from operations to Rs 3,143.62 crore in Q3 FY25 over Q3 FY24.

Sonata Software dropped 10.98%. The company�s profit after tax (PAT) for Q3�25 stood at Rs 105 crore, quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) de-growth of 1.4%. Revenue rose 31% QoQ to Rs 2842.8 crore in Q3�25. Sonata Software faced an unplanned ramp-down and gave a one-time discount to a major hi-tech client in Q3FY25, leading to a decline in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecom) vertical. The company expects a `full-quarter impact` in Q4FY25 due to the ramp-down, projected to be a `de-growth` quarter. The ramp-down also impacted Q3FY25 margins, as EBITDA saw a negative effect partially due to the one-time discount. A `ramp down` refers to a gradual reduction in services or engagement with a client, potentially leading to contract termination.

Britannia Industries fell 1.7%. The company�s consolidated net profit increased 4.5% to Rs 581.69 crore on 6.5% jump in revenue from operations to Rs 4,463.30 crore in Q3 FY25 over Q3 FY24.

Hero MotoCorp rose 1.12% after the company reported a 12.1% increase in standalone net profit to Rs 1,202.84 crore in Q3 FY25 as compared with Rs 1,073.38 crore in Q3 FY24. Revenue from operations rose 5% to Rs 10,210.78 crore in Q3 FY25.

Gulf Oil Lubricants India zoomed 7.94% after the company�s net profit jumped 21.59% to Rs 98.17 crore on 10.72% rise in revenue from operations to Rs 904.88 crore in Q3 FY25 over Q3 FY24.

Cochin Shipyard slipped 3.57% after the company�s consolidated net profit fell 27.6% to Rs 176.99 crore in Q3 FY25 as against Rs 244.38 crore posted in Q3 FY24. However, revenue from operations rose 8.6% YoY to Rs 1,147.64 crore in the quarter ended 31 December 2024.

NOCIL tumbled 6.13% after the specialty chemical maker�s consolidated net profit dropped 57% to Rs 12.9 crore on 6.6% decrease in net revenue from operations to Rs 318.13 crore in Q3 FY25 over Q3 FY24.

Bikaji Foods International tumbled 10% after the company�s consolidated net profit fell 38.7% to Rs 28.57 crore in Q3 FY25 as against Rs 46.62 crore posted in Q3 FY24. However, total revenue from operations grew by 14.5% year on year (YoY) to Rs 714.90 crore in the quarter ended 31 December 2024. Volume growth was at 3% YoY in the third quarter of FY25.

DCX Systems slipped 6% after the company�s consildated net profit slipped 25.19% to Rs 10.01 crore in Q3 FY25, compared with Rs 13.38 crore recorded in Q3 FY24. However, revenue from operations rose marginally to Rs 200.01 crore in the December 2024 quarter, compared with Rs 198.16 crore posted in Q3 FY24.

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