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News: AIA reported weak set of Q4FY24 results. Revenues declined by 9.7% YoY to Rs 1130.9 crore. Overall volumes declined by 3% YoY to 71434 tonnes whereas mining segment volumes declined by 6.9% YoY art 44932 tonnes. EBITDA margins expanded by 110 bps to 26.3%. However, weak operational performance, PAT declined by 2.7% YoY at Rs 260.5 crore. On the capex front, the company commissioned 20000 tonnes of mills liners capacity which takes total capacity to 460000 tonnes, however the company will only now go ahead with partial capex of 80000 tonnes it was doing earlier, thereby adding 36000 tonnes only in FY25E while the remaining addition is put on Hold. The company is also facing anti-dumping review in US which will impact volume growth in FY25E.
Views: Recent anti-dumping review in US will impact volume growth in FY25 as the same used to contribute 27000 tonnes to overall sales (8% of the overall volumes) and on account of same the company has refrained to put a volume guidance for FY25E, which will keep the stock under pressure. However, we like the business model of AIA given is strong leadership the duopoly mill internals market.
Impact: Negative