loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Phoenix Mills Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,042.9 Chg : -48.25 (-1.56%)
  • Target : 1,650.0 (20.79%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

09 Feb 2023

Retail/hospitality portfolio continues to shine...

About The Stock

Phoenix Mills (PML) is a leading retail mall developer and operator in India. It is into retail-led, mixed-use properties and has developed 17.5+ mn sq ft of retail, commercial, hospitality, and residential asset class.

  • PML has operational retail area of ~7.7 mn sq ft spread over 10 operational malls and is developing ~6 mn sq ft of retail space. It has ~2.5 mn sq ft operational in the commercial segment and plans to add ~4.5 mn sq ft
Q3FY23

PML reported a strong operating performance.

  • Reported revenues grew ~60.9% YoY, 5% QoQ to ₹ 684 crore. Retail revenues grew ~59% YoY at ₹ 442.4 crore while hospitality revenues were up 123% YoY at ₹ 146.4 crore. We note that retail rental at ₹ 336 crore (up 59% YoY), was at ~121% of Q3FY20 (pre-Covid level) and ~109% on a like-to-like basis. Consumption in Q3FY23 at ₹ 2647 crore, was ~128% of Q3FY20 (pre-Covid), and ~114% on a like-to-like basis
  • Reported EBITDA margins were up 200 bps YoY to 56.2% (vs. estimates of 58%), with operating leverage kicking in on a YoY basis. The company reported PAT of ₹ 176.4 crore, up 78.4% YoY
What should Investors do?

PML’s share price has grown at 18% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 589 in February 2018 to ~₹ 1366 levels currently).

  • We maintain our BUY rating as PML remains a quasi-play on India’s consumption story, given the quality of assets and healthy balance sheet
Target Price and Valuation

We value PML at ₹ 1650/share, valuing it at 20% premium to NAV given the business development activities lined up

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Focused on core competence in retail malls; under-development retail GLA of ~6 mn sq ft to aid growth. Over the medium term, we expect retail rental income to grow at a CAGR of ~16% to ₹ 2144 crore in FY20-25E
  • Strong addition pipeline in the commercial segment, which is likely to expand to ~7 msf in three to four years, from 2.5 msf currently
  • Healthy balance sheet and strategic expansion plan to add organic/inorganic retail assets
New Stock Ideas

Besides PML, we like Brigade Enterprises in real estate space.

  • A play on well-placed Bengaluru real estate
    • BUY with a target price of ₹ 620

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 yr CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales (| crore) 1,941.1 1,073.3 1,483.5 -4.1 2,597.4 3,131.4 3,821.2 37.1
EBITDA (| crore) 967.1 494.2 733.9 -2.8 1,484.2 1,824.4 2,312.2 46.6
EBITDA margin (%) 49.8 46.0 49.5 - 57.1 58.3 60.5 -
Adj. Net Profit (| crore) 327.0 52.6 237.4 7.2 701.4 810.2 1,072.1 65.3
Adj. EPS (|) 21.4 2.9 13.3 - 39.3 45.4 60.0 -
P/E (x) 62.5 463.5 102.7 - 19.4 30.1 22.7 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 29.4 56.3 35.9 - 18.5 15.0 11.7 -
Price / Book (x) 5.6 5.0 3.7 - 3.1 2.9 2.5 -
RoCE (%) 8.6 3.6 4.6 - 9.6 10.5 12.4 -
RoE (%) 8.8 1.1 3.6 - 9.1 9.5 11.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

  • Retail Properties KPIs: Consumption across most categories has exceeded pre-Covid-19 levels and improved to | 2,647 crore, up ~28% over Q3FY20, which was historically the best year. Excluding Phoenix Palassio Lucknow and Phoenix Citadel Indore, the growth was 14% over Q3FY20. The top performing categories were jewellery, which was up 142% from Q3FY20. Electronics was up 21% from Q3FY20, fashion and accessories up 26%, food & beverage up 31%, FEC, multiplex and entertainment up 30% from Q3FY20. Retail rental at | 336 crore (up 59% YoY), were at ~121% of Q3FY20 (pre-Covid level) and ~109% on a like-to-like basis. Also, the momentum in consumption remained healthy during January at | 816 crore; at 127% of pre-Covid (up 109% of pre-Covid on adjusted basis). Further, retail collections remained healthy for Q3FY23 with collections of
    | 540 crore (vs. | 520 crore in Q2FY23). Going forward, the management expects gained momentum in consumption/ collection levels to continue with a) improving demand and b) sustained consumption growth and c) new trading areas turning operational across existing malls. With these, the management believes consumption will surpass | 9,000 crore during FY23 (YTD April to January 2023: | 7853 crore), excluding new malls incremental contributions. Further, the collection is likely to remain strong at | 500+ crore on a quarterly basis
  • Expansion strategy in retail business: PML has set a target to add ~1 mn sq ft of GLA each year post FY25 and is looking for greenfield opportunities in various regions including Jaipur, Chandigarh, Hyderabad among others). In line with that, the company has acquired land parcel of ~ 7 acres in December 2022 in partnership with GIC and Bsafal group for | 501 crore (total costs will be | 1000 crore, including construction costs) in Surat. The development would be ~1 mn sq ft with estimated construction period of three to three-and-a-half years. Also, the company is in advanced discussions at Jaipur and Chandigarh location for land deals. As per the management, the cost to build a mall at targeted cities is expected to remain in the range of | 1,200-1,500 crore. Funding would be either solely by PML or with joint venture partner – GIC
  • Commercial KPIs: In the commercial business, Phoenix’s office portfolio remained robust with revenues during Q3FY23 improving 15.6% YoY at
    | 42.3 crore. Collection efficiency was at ~9%.
    In terms of leasing, the company continues to witness strong leasing traction at YTD January 2023 and achieved gross leasing of ~3.95 lakh sq ft (~2.45 lakh sq ft is new leasing and ~1.5 lakh sq ft is renewal leasing). Going forward, PML expects leasing momentum to continue with strong demand for commercial space
  • Residential business: The residential segment reported revenues of | 52.7 crore, up 64% YoY, with | 13.6 crore worth of sales is pending registration during the quarter. The company witnessed healthy demand for ready to move in inventory, faster conversions, and reconfiguration of Kessaku into smaller units. Collections were healthy at | 129 crore during Q3FY23. Going forward, the company is witnessing healthy demand with faster conversions backed by effective digital marketing efforts and various schemes and offers. Also, the company has won the bid for a 5.5-acre premium land parcel in Kolkata (at Alipore) having a gross developmental potential of
    | 2,000 crore (1 mn sq ft of developmental area; overall capex including construction: | 1000 crore) for | 430 crore
  • Hospitality portfolio: Hospitality business revenues improved to | 146 crore during Q3FY23 (up ~123% YoY) with higher occupancy and improved average room rentals (ARR) with uptick in social events, revival in corporate travels and pickup in F&B segments. Portfolio-wise, St Regis average occupancy remained elevated at 81% during Q3FY23 Additionally, ARR improved to | 16392 in Q3FY23. With improved ARR and occupancy, revenue improved to | 108.9 crore during Q3FY23. Further, improved revenue and various cost rationalisation exercises has translated into 45% EBITDA margin
  • Debt: Gross debt as on Q3 was at | 3953 crore (net debt | 2090 crore, up by | 135 crore QoQ). Average cost of borrowing was at 8.41% in December 2022 (vs. 7.89% in September 2022)
  • Lease status in under-construction malls: aa) Palladium (Ahmedabad): to begin during February 2023; ~99% of retail GLA pre-leased by Q3FY23-end; rentals at ~| 140/ sq ft, b) Phoenix Millennium (Wakad): expected to start operation during H1FY24; commitments reached ~88% by Q3FY23-end; rentals at ~| 120-130/ sq ft, and c) Phoenix Mall of Asia (Hebbal, Bangalore): to begin operation by H1FY24; ~87% of retail GLA pre-leased by Q3FY23-end, rentals at ~| 150-160/ sq ft
  • Phoenix Citadel: Phoenix Citadel, Indore commenced operation in December, 2022 and generated revenues of | 4.6 crore. It has achieved leased occupancy of 94% as of January, 2023.
  • Project Rise update: The company has executed an agreement with Canada Pension Plan Investment Board to develop office led mixed use development at Lower Parel. The company expects to add office GLA of 1mn sq ft and retail GLA of 0.2 mn sq ft. Currently, shore piling work has been completed and rock anchoring excavation is in progress
  • Kolkata project update: Demolition work for on-site structure has been completed and currently piling and diaphragm work is in progress
  • Capex: The company has incurred capex of | 775 crore during Q3 and expects elevated level of capex, going forward, with many malls at the construction stage

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More