loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd>
  • CMP : 258.7 Chg : 0.90 (0.35%)
  • Target : 330.0 (15.38%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 May 2023

Mixed performance; focus on FY25 roadmap…

About The Stock

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS) is primarily into a vehicle financing business (e.g. new pre owned auto, utility vehicles, tractors, passenger cars and commercial vehicles). As of June 2022, MMFS has a network of 1384 branches spread across in India.

  • The main focus of MMFS is in rural and semi urban areas
  • MMFS also present in housing, insurance and AMC via its subsidiaries
Q4FY23

M&M Financial Services reported a mixed performance.

  • Loan book was up 27% YoY, 7% QoQ led by 80% YoY growth in disbursements
  • NII up 10.2% YoY, NIMs declined 36 bps QoQ at 8%, C/I inched up at ~45%
  • Significant decline in provision resulted in PAT growth of 14% YoY at ₹ 684 crore. Stage-3 assets improved 140 bps QoQ to 4.5%. Collection efficiency was at 99%
What should Investors do?

M&M Financial Services share price was under pressure in the past two to three years due to cautious approach of management on growth, weak asset quality. However, with roadmap for FY25 in place, encouraging guidance on growth and asset quality, we believe RoA of 2.5% is achievable.

  • With asset quality cycle turning, we upgrade our rating from REDUCE to BUY
Target Price and Valuation

With RoE expected to reach 14%+ by FY25, we value M&M Finance at ~1.9x FY25E ABV and revise our target price to ₹ 330 per share from ₹185 earlier.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strategic initiatives under new leadership is expected to lead to improvement in RoA and asset quality, thereby acting a catalyst for re-rating of the stock
  • The management has articulated its FY25 roadmap, which includes focusing on new geographies, change in asset mix (focus on SME, leasing, etc) and customer diversification (towards affluent customers) with AUM growth target of ~20% YoY augurs well for earnings growth
Alternate Stock

Apart from MMFS, in our coverage we also like CanFin Homes.

  • Housing loans comprise ~90% of book of which ~73% is salaried
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 730 

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 5,269.1 5,722.9 5,737.8 6,352.1 6.4 7,258.7 8,856.2 18.1
PPP 3,398.2 4,157.3 3,725.2 3,751.8 3.4 4,285.6 5,583.4 22.0
PAT 906.4 335.2 988.8 1,984.3 29.8 2,244.2 2,931.3 21.5
ABV (|) 120.2 99.7 109.8 126.3 - 142.8 165.3 -
P/E 19.4 105.1 35.7 17.8 - 15.7 12.0 -
P/ABV 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.3 - 2.0 1.7 -
RoA 1.3 0.4 1.3 2.3 - 2.2 2.5 -
RoE 8.1 2.6 6.5 12.1 - 12.3 14.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 1,660 1,507 10.2 1,621 2.4 Moderate growth due to decline in margins
NIM Calc. (%) 8.0 9.3 -125 bps 8.4 -36 bps Margins continued to decline due to higher CoF
Net Total Income 1,723 1,531 12.5 1,650 4.4  
Staff cost 455 320 42.2 400 13.9  
Other  Expenses 323 313 3.4 252 28.5 CI ratio inched up to ~45% vs ~41% in Q4FY22
PPP 944.1 897.9 5.1 998.3 -5.4  
Provision 0.4 63.9 -99.4 155.1 -99.7 Significant improvement in credit cost led by decline in stage 2 & 3 assets
PBT 943.7 834.1 13.1 843.1 11.9  
Tax 259.6 233.3 11.3 214.2 21.2  
PAT 684.1 600.8 13.9 629.0 8.8 Aided by lower provisions during the quarter
             
Key Metrics            
GNPA 3,717.0 4,976.0 -25.3 4,589.0 -19.0 GNPA ratio improved to 4.5% vs 5.9% QoQ
NNPA 1,507.0 2,086.0 -27.8 1,882.0 -19.9  
Advances 82,770 64,961 27.4 77,344 7.0 Led by 80% YoY growth in disbursements
Borrowings 65,577 45,278 44.8 61,588 6.5  

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Guidance – AUM growth 20% YoY (to achieve 2x of AUM). NIMs at 7.5%, cost to assets at 2.5%, steady asset quality and RoA, RoE of 2.5%, 15%, respectively. Comfortable leverage of 5.5-6%. By the end of FY25, small businesses to contribute 15% of overall AUM
  • Rural sentiments continue to remain strong and positive led by improved footfalls at dealership, collections at pre-Covid levels and two good monsoons in row
  • With improved infra spending, farm cash flows expected to remain steady and demand augurs well for growth, going ahead
  • New focus areas – SME business (auto, engineering, food processing), micro loans, LAP, consumer & personal loans. Yields on LAP – 12%+
  • Total 15-20% business is self-generated. Earlier 80-90% collections were in cash, which has now come down to ~40% levels. Digital initiatives have reduced time and cost to onboard the customer. Hence, CI ratio to improve, going ahead
  • Asset quality – In order to maintain steady asset quality, the company’s focus will be on acquiring good rural and semi-urban affluent customers
  • The market share is improving in every product. Expanding unsecured book cautiously and gradually coupled with controlled asset quality
  • Credit cost was at 1.2% led by improvement in both GS3 and GS2 assets
  • The management aim to shift some manual process to the technology platforms, use digital more sensibly and more correctly, embark on partnership journeys with various external partners
  • Target to add 200 more branches in high potential rural locations
  • Went live with Bank of Baroda and Indian Post Payments Bank partnerships
  • Mahindra Housing Finance to show good performance. The management aims to come out with an IPO of this business in the next two to three years

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Sameer Sawant, MBA Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. Registered Office Address: ICICI Venture House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025. CIN: L67120MH1995PLC086241, Tel: (91 22) 6807 7100. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. None of the research recommendations promise or guarantee any assured, minimum or risk-free return to the investors.

Name of the Compliance officer (Research Analyst): Mr. Anoop Goyal Contact number: 022-40701000 E-mail Address: complianceofficer@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated bythe subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third partyin connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/ beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Read More