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Indraprastha Gas Ltd>
  • CMP : 436.2 Chg : -1.10 (-0.25%)
  • Target : 440.0 (20.22%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

20 May 2022

In line performance; sequential margin growth…

About The Stock

Indraprastha Gas (IGL) is one of India’s largest city gas distribution companies and primarily operates in NCT of Delhi.

  • CNG sales contribute more than 70% of its total sales volume
  • Sales volume grew at 9% CAGR in FY17-22
Q4FY22

IGL reported Q4FY22 results that were in line with estimates on the profitability front.

  • Revenue increased 55.2% YoY to ₹ 2405.9 crore due to higher volume as well as realisation. Sales volume grew 13.5% YoY to 7.7 mmscmd
  • Gross margin declined ₹ 0.9/scm YoY to ₹ 12.6/scm as higher realisation was offset by gas sourcing costs. EBITDA was at ₹ 500.5 crore, up 1.8% YoY (I-direct estimate: ₹ 529.4 crore)
  • PAT was at ₹ 361.6 crore, up 9.2% YoY (I-direct estimate: ₹ 353.6 crore
What should Investors do?

Concerns over gas sourcing are likely to subside in the near to medium term. The company has taken a hike to pass on high APM costs that will lead to stabilised margin in near term.

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value IGL at ₹ 440 (standalone at ~₹ 411 i.e. 18x P/E on FY24E EPS and investments at ~₹ 29)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • IGL will continue to benefit from stricter environmental regulations in NCR and India’s aim to increase the share of natural gas in the energy mix
  • On account of competitive advantage against traditional auto fuels, IGL has potential for further sales volume growth in NCR and other CGD areas
  • Debt free balance sheet
New Stock Ideas

Apart from IGL, in our oil & gas coverage we also like Gail.

  • Gail is India’s leading gas transmission company, which is a beneficiary of increasing gas consumption. Stable volume growth along with higher profitability from gas trading, petchem and LPG segment due to higher oil prices will add value
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 180

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22E-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 5,760.0 6,485.3 4,940.8 7,710.0 15.1 13,124.9 13,451.6 32.1
EBITDA (| crore) 1,252.1 1,519.6 1,483.0 1,881.1 14.3 2,143.8 2,431.6 13.7
Net Profit (| crore) 786.7 1,136.5 1,005.7 1,318.1 18.2 1,424.6 1,600.7 10.2
EPS (|) 11.2 16.2 14.4 18.8 - 20.4 22.9 -
P/E (x) 32.6 22.5 25.5 19.4 - 18.0 16.0 -
Price / Book (x) 6.2 5.1 4.4 3.7 - 3.2 2.8 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.0 15.5 16.6 12.9 - 11.2 9.7 -
RoCE (%) 25.4 24.7 20.0 22.3 - 21.5 21.1 -
RoE (%) 19.0 22.5 17.1 19.0 - 17.9 17.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Earnings in line with estimates

  • Revenue increased 8.6% QoQ. Realisation was in line with estimates at | 37.8/scm
  • Sales volume was at 7.7 mmscmd, up 13.5% YoY, 1.2% QoQ (our estimate: | 8.1 mmscmd). CNG segment grew ~16% YoY to 5.7 mmscmd (our estimate: 6 mmscmd). PNG volume increased ~7% YoY to 2.1 mmscmd and was in line with estimates. Within the PNG segment, domestic PNG volume grew ~14% YoY while industrial/commercial PNG volume was up ~3% YoY. On a QoQ basis, CNG sales were flat while PNG volume grew ~3%
  • The company reported higher than expected other income of | 77.4 crore
  • We estimate sales volume of 8.1 mmscmd and 8.9 mmscmd in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • Gross margin is expected at | 13.3/scm and | 13.6/scm in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
 
 
Variance Analysis
 
  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 2,405.9 2,519.6 1,550.6 55.2 2,215.5 8.6    
Raw materials costs 1,517.8 1,599.7 713.9 112.6 1,384.2 9.7    
Employees Cost 38.5 50.4 34.3 12.4 47.7 -19.2    
Other Expenses 349.1 340.1 310.7 12.4 314.0 11.2    
Total Expenditure 1,905.5 1,990.3 1,058.9 80.0 1,745.9 9.1    
EBITDA 500.5 529.4 491.8 1.8 469.6 6.6   Lower-than-expected on account of lower-than-expected sales volume
EBITDA margins (%) 20.8 21.0 31.7 -1091 bps 21.2 -40 bps    
Depreciation 75.3 88.1 76.1 -1.1 83.5 -9.9    
EBIT 425.2 441.3 415.6 2.3 386.1 10.1    
Interest 4.9 2.9 3.6 34.4 2.8 72.4    
Other Income 77.4 35.0 28.0 176.6 30.4 154.8   Higher than estimated
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 497.7 473.4 440.0 13.1 413.7 20.3    
Total Tax 136.1 119.8 109.0 24.9 105.1 29.5    
PAT 361.6 353.6 331.0 9.2 308.5 17.2    
                 
Key Metrics                
Sales Volumes (mmscmd) 7.7 8.1 6.8 13.5 7.7 1.2   CNG volume was 5.7 mmscmd whereas PNG volume came in at 2.1 mmscmd 
Realisation (|/scm) 37.8 37.8 27.7 36.6 34.5 9.8    
Gross Margin (|/scm) 12.6 12.5 13.5 -6.7 11.7 7.9   In line with estimates 

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