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  • CMP : 196.1 Chg : 3.33 (1.73%)
  • Target : 430.0 (12.86%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 Oct 2022

Higher gas sourcing costs reduce gross margins…

About The Stock

Indraprastha Gas (IGL) is one of India’s largest city gas distribution companies and primarily operates in the NCT of Delhi. As per FY22 AR, the company has 711 CNG stations and provided PNG connections to ~20 lakh households and 7715 commercial & industrial consumers.

  • CNG sales contribute 75% of its total sales volume
  • Overall, sales volume grew at 9% CAGR in FY17-22
Q2FY23 Results

IGL reported Q2FY23 results that were marginally better than estimated on profitability.

  • Revenue increased 94.1% YoY to ₹ 3554 crore due to higher volume as well as realisation. Sales volume grew 11.8% YoY to 8.09 mmscmd
  • Gross margin was down 6.6% YoY at ₹ 12.5/scm (our estimate: ₹ 14.1/scm). EBITDA was at ₹ 527.5 crore, flattish YoY (I-direct estimate: ₹ 616.7 crore)
  • PAT was at ₹ 416.2 crore, up 3.9% YoY (I-direct estimate: ₹ 402.6 crore)
What should Investors do?

Although gas sourcing costs have gone up for the sector from October 1 onwards, suggestion for a new gas pricing regime (mostly oil-linked), is expected to provide fresh thrust to downstream gas players in the medium term (in the form of lower gas sourcing costs).

  • Due to near term uncertainty, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value IGL at ₹ 430 (standalone at ~₹ 397 i.e. 19x P/E on FY24E EPS and investments at ~₹ 33).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued capex and presence in new geographical areas will improve volume growth
  • IGL will continue to benefit from stricter environmental regulations in NCR and India’s aim to increase the share of natural gas in the energy mix
  • Gas sourcing costs/price hikes will be key monitorable in the near term
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from IGL, in our oil & gas coverage we also like MGL.

  • Mahanagar Gas (MGL) is a city gas distribution company and operates in Mumbai, its adjoining areas and Raigad district, Maharashtra

 

  • The company has historically reported high gross margins and return ratios. It has a debt free balance sheet and a constant dividend payout

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22E-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 5,760.0 6,485.3 4,940.8 7,710.0 15.1 14,134.7 14,346.6 36.4
EBITDA (| crore) 1,252.1 1,519.6 1,483.0 1,881.1 14.3 2,209.4 2,337.2 11.5
Net Profit (| crore) 786.7 1,136.5 1,005.7 1,315.0 18.2 1,516.0 1,459.9 5.4
EPS (|) 11.2 16.2 14.4 18.8 - 21.7 20.9 -
P/E (x) 33.9 23.5 26.5 20.3 - 17.6 18.3 -
Price / Book (x) 6.5 5.3 4.5 3.8 - 3.3 2.9 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.8 16.2 17.3 13.5 - 11.5 10.8 -
RoCE (%) 25.4 24.7 20.0 22.3 - 22.5 20.2 -
RoE (%) 19.0 22.5 17.1 19.0 - 18.8 16.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q2FY23 Results: Higher realisation offset by increase in gas sourcing cost

  • Revenue increased 11.3% QoQ. Realisation was marginally better than estimates at | 52.5/scm
  • Sales volume was at 8.09 mmscmd, up 11.8% YoY, 2.5% QoQ, in line with estimates. CNG segment grew ~15% YoY to 6.09 mmscmd (our estimate: 6.04 mmscmd). PNG volume increased ~3% YoY to 2 mmscmd and was in line with estimates. Within the PNG segment, domestic PNG volume was up 11% YoY while industrial/commercial PNG volume was flattish YoY. On a QoQ basis, CNG sales grew 2.7% while PNG volume grew 2.2%
  • Gas sourcing costs increased | 4.9/scm QoQ to | 35.1/scm. It was higher than estimate of | 32.3/scm. This led to gross margin of | 12.5/scm, lower than estimate of | 14.1/scm.
  • We estimate sales volume of 8.1 mmscmd and 8.7 mmscmd in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • Gross margin is expected at | 13.3/scm and | 13.6/scm in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
 
  Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 3,554.0 3,426.3 1,831.2 94.1 3,193.9 11.3   Revenue increased YoY on account of sales growth as well as higher realisation
Raw materials costs 2,609.4 2,377.9 928.3 181.1 2,170.6 20.2    
Employees Cost 49.7 54.8 52.4 -5.2 48.1 3.3    
Other Expenses 367.5 376.9 320.4 14.7 357.7 2.7    
Total Expenditure 3,026.5 2,809.6 1,301.0 132.6 2,576.3 17.5    
EBITDA 527.5 616.7 530.2 -0.5 617.5 -14.6   Lower than estimated
EBITDA margins (%) 14.8 18.0 29.0 -1411 bps 19.3 -449 bps    
Depreciation 91.4 102.9 80.5 13.6 85.7 6.7    
EBIT 436.1 513.8 449.7 -3.0 531.8 -18.0    
Interest 3.1 4.8 2.6 20.3 2.4 31.1    
Other Income 110.0 30.0 77.5 42.0 30.7 257.8   Higher than estimated
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 543.0 539.0 524.6 3.5 560.2 -3.1    
Total Tax 126.9 136.4 124.1 2.3 139.4 -9.0    
PAT 416.2 402.6 400.5 3.9 420.9 -1.1   Marginally higher than estimated
                 
Key Metrics                
Sales Volumes (mmscmd) 8.09 8.0 7.2 11.8 7.9 2.5   in line with estimates, CNG volume was 6.09 mmscmd whereas PNG volume came in at 2 mmscmd 
Realisation (|/scm) 52.5 51.2 30.1 74.4 49.0 7.1    
Gross Margin (|/scm) 12.5 14.1 13.4 -6.6 14.1 -11.2   Lower than estimates  mainly due to higher than expected gas sourcing costs

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