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  • CMP : 392.7 Chg : -3.95 (-1.0%)
  • Target : 500.0 (12.61%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

05 Aug 2022

Muted volume outlook in near term…

About The Stock

Gujarat Gas is one of India’s largest city gas distribution companies with highest sales volume among listed peers.

  • Sales volume grew at 15% CAGR in FY17-22 driven by industrial PNG
  • The company benefitted from NGT order for Morbi industrial area
Q1FY23 Results

Gujarat Gas (GGL) reported results that were higher than estimates on the profitability front driven by realisation and gross margins.

  • Revenue was up 71.7% YoY to ₹ 5170.1 crore (estimate: ₹ 5110.8 crore) driven by higher realisation
  • Gross margin was at ₹ 9.8/scm, down ₹ 0.6/scm YoY as higher realisation was offset by surge in gas costs. Subsequently, EBITDA was at ₹ 606.6 crore, down 16.1% YoY (estimate: ₹ 482.4 crore)
  • PAT was at ₹ 381.1 crore, down 20% YoY (estimate: ₹ 292.9 crore)
What should Investors do?

GGL’s sales volume is expected to remain subdued in near term. Additionally, gas sourcing costs are expected to remain elevated in medium term amid potential increase in domestic gas costs.

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value GGL at ₹ 500 i.e. 23x P/E on FY24E EPS 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Volume growth in industrial PNG segment driven by Morbi industrial volume. Growth in CNG, domestic PNG to support volume growth
  • Better pricing power and regulatory tailwinds over long term
  • In the near term, price hikes/global LNG costs trend will be key monitorable
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from GGL, in our oil & gas coverage we also like Gail.

  • Gail is a beneficiary of increasing gas consumption. Stable volume growth along with higher profitability from gas trading, petchem and LPG segment due to higher oil prices will add value
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 180

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 5 Year CAGR (FY16-21) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 7,754.4 10,300.3 9,854.3 16,439.2 26.6 20,150.0 22,396.9 16.7
EBITDA (| crore) 984.5 1,634.3 2,087.8 2,078.8 22.6 2,047.8 2,375.4 6.9
Net Profit (| crore) 416.9 1,193.3 1,275.5 1,303.3 42.3 1,259.6 1,494.2 7.1
EPS (|) 6.1 17.3 18.5 18.9 - 18.3 21.7 -
P/E (x) 73.3 25.6 24.0 23.5 - 24.3 20.5 -
Price / Book (x) 14.0 9.3 6.8 5.4 - 4.7 4.0 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 32.9 19.5 15.0 15.0 - 15.1 12.7 -
RoCE (%) 16.1 25.2 31.7 26.9 - 22.9 23.4 -
RoE (%) 19.1 36.3 28.5 23.2 - 19.2 19.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1FY23 Results: Growth in realisation, margin drives earnings

  • Total volume declined 2.6% YoY, 1.4% QoQ to 9.8 mmscmd and was lower than estimated 10.2 mmscmd. Industrial PNG volume was at 6.6 mmscmd, down 14.8% YoY and 1% QoQ (our estimate: 7.1 mmscmd). Total PNG sales were down 13.6% YoY, 4.6% QoQ to 7.7 mmscmd on account of lower industrial & domestic PNG sales. CNG sales were marginally ahead of estimate at 2.4 mmscmd, up 57.5% YoY and 9.4% QoQ (our estimate: 2.3 mmscmd)
  • Revenue increased 10.7% QoQ owing to higher realisation QoQ. Realisation was at | 58.3/scm, up | 5.8/scm QoQ. On a QoQ basis, raw material costs increased | 6.6/scm QoQ
  • Gross margins declined | 0.8/scm QoQ and | 0.6/scm YoY to | 9.8/scm (our estimate: | 8/scm). EBITDA was at | 606.6 crore, down 16.1% YoY and 13% QoQ (our estimate: | 482.4 crore). EBITDA/scm was at | 6.8/scm, down
    | 1.1/scm YoY and | 1/scm QoQ (our estimate: | 5.2/scm)
  • We expect sales volume in FY23E and FY24E at 10 mmscmd and 11.4 mmscmd, respectively
  • We expect EBITDA/scm at | 5.6/scm and | 5.7/scm in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 5,170.1 5,110.8 3,010.9 71.7 4,669.4 10.7    
Raw materials costs 4,297.3 4,372.8 2,060.3 108.6 3,719.9 15.5    
Employees Cost 47.2 51.1 50.5 -6.6 49.0 -3.7    
Other Expenses 219.0 204.4 177.2 23.6 203.1 7.9    
Total Expenditure 4,563.5 4,628.4 2,288.0 99.5 3,972.0 14.9    
EBITDA 606.6 482.4 722.9 -16.1 697.4 -13.0   Higher-than-expected on account of better gross margin
EBITDA margins (%) 11.7 9.4 24.0 -1228 bps 14.9 -320 bps    
Depreciation 103.2 103.4 90.5 14.0 102.1 1.1    
EBIT 503.5 379.0 632.4 -20.4 595.4 -15.4    
Interest 13.6 12.5 15.9 -14.5 14.5 -6.1    
Other Income 19.0 25.0 21.3 -10.7 17.6 7.5    
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA -11.9 NA    
PBT 508.9 391.5 637.7 -20.2 586.7 -13.3    
Total Tax 127.8 98.7 161.6 -20.9 142.4 -10.3    
PAT 381.1 292.9 476.2 -20.0 444.3 -14.2    
                 
Key Metrics                
Sales Volume (mmscmd) 9.8 10.2 10.0 -2.6 9.9 -1.4   Lower than estimates. CNG volume grew 57.5% YoY
Realisation (|/scm) 58.3 55.1 33.1 76.3 52.5 11.1    
Gross margin (|/scm) 9.8 8.0 10.4 -5.7 10.7 -7.8   Higher than estimates on account of higher-than-expected realisation

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