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Gabriel India Ltd>
  • CMP : 349.9 Chg : -2.95 (-0.84%)
  • Target : 140.0 (22.81%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

26 May 2022

Tactically stepping up EV play, robust growth lies ahead

About The Stock

Gabriel India (GIL) is a global top-10 shock absorber manufacturer serving 2-W, 3-W, PV, CV, railway and aftermarket segments.

  • FY22 revenue mix – ~65% 2-W, 3-W, ~22% PV, ~13% CV & railways
  • FY22 market share – 25% in 2-W, 3-W, 23% in PV, 85% in CV & railways
  • On-boarded EV players in 2-W, 3-W space & is sole supplier for Ola Electric
Q4FY22

GIL posted muted Q4FY22 results.

  • Net sales for the quarter came in at ₹ 684 crore, up 13% QoQ
  • Margins declined 140 bps sequentially to 5.5%
  • PAT rose 5% QoQ to ₹ 26.9 crore, supported by higher other income
What should Investors do?

The stock price has de-grown at ~3% CAGR from ~₹ 129 levels (May 2017), underperforming Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY; EV proof product profile & prominent EV OEMs on-board
Target Price Valuation

Rolling over our valuations, we now value GIL at 15x P/E on FY24E for a revised target price of ₹ 140/share (earlier target price ₹ 170).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We build 11.2% net sales CAGR in FY22-24E on new client addition and expected pickup in sales volumes across all segment over FY22-24E
  • EV-proof products; along with major EV players as clients with leading market share in EV suspension space (~>= 50% market share)
  • Stabilised RM price, cost focus, increasing share of aftermarket and exports from current levels to aid margin improvement to 7.0% by FY24E. This coupled with controlled working capital cycle and net debt free b/s to result in improvement in return ratios profile with RoCE seen at 15.6% by FY24E
  • Net cash b/s (~₹ 280 crore cash & liquid investments); ~17% of market cap
New Stock Ideas

Apart from GIL, in our OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,045

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 2,076.5 1,870.0 1,699.9 2,333.7 9.1 2,633.6 2,883.8 11.2
EBITDA 177.9 137.8 107.6 147.8 0.5 171.2 201.9 16.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 8.6 7.4 6.3 6.3 - 6.5 7.0 -
Net Profit 95.0 84.7 60.3 89.5 1.9 110.6 133.2 22.0
EPS (|) 6.6 5.9 4.2 6.2 - 7.7 9.3 -
P/E 17.2 19.3 27.2 18.3 - 14.8 12.3 -
RoNW (%) 16.1 13.0 8.7 11.7 - 13.0 13.9 -
RoCE (%) 22.0 14.0 9.0 13.4 - 14.4 15.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • GIL surpassed our annual estimates on the topline as well as PAT front
  • Subdued margin performance was the real disappointment from the quarterly results. Margin decline was largely tracking pressure on gross margins, which declined ~110 bps in Q4FY22
  • GIL, however, has cash rich b/s, EV immune product profile with suspension solutions already being supplied to new auto OEMs like Ola Electric
  • Higher other income (| 10.8 crore), aided PAT increase for the quarter

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Demand outlook for PV & CV is healthy amid improving chip availability and cyclical upswing in commercial vehicle domain. The 2-W space, particularly in the domestic market, witnessed muted demand prospects whereas exports witnessed good traction. GIL, however, was able to increase its market share across all segments on a YoY basis
  • The company incurred | 66.8 crore of capex in FY22 towards tech centre as well as new 4-W projects. Capex spend of FY22 also includes expansion of casting plant leading to 2x of normal capacity (currently 300 tons/ month)
  • Margins remained muted due to a rise in steel prices, which rose abruptly and same is being recovered from customers. The management said that ~85% hiked prices have been recovered. This may be visible in Q2FY23. Freight costs for Q4FY22 was ~| 42 crore vs ~| 29.7 crore in Q4FY21
  • Exports were effected in Q4FY22 due to muted operations at Volkswagen- Russia amid geopolitical crisis in Russia
  • During the quarter the company added Stellantis (a global company) as client and is in active discussion with the same in the PV domain
  • The company is focusing on increasing content with existing OEMs (like Royal Enfield, TVS, Bajaj, etc) & has successfully captured >50% market share in EV domain with OLA & Hero Electric added as clients. Supply to Hero Electric would start from FY26-27 at an annual run-rate of | 250 crore/annum
  • The company guided for ~| 120 crore of capex for FY23 of which ~| 20-30 crore would be for maintenance and balance for growth. Further working capital efficiency is expected to be improved further
  • Currently supplied to EV players is ~2-3% of overall revenue pie
  • For FY22, growth in topline (37% YoY) for due commodity was ~8-9% and rest was related to volume growth
  • Co forecasts PV, CV to grow by 10%, ~25% respectively, whereas 2W to largely remain flat for FY22 

  • Overall market share in the PV space has increased to 23% vs. 20% in past with aim to take it to 28% in coming years 

  • The company already invested in new capacity expansion in E2W space to fulfil new client’s demands

  • Utilisation rated for 2-W, PV, CV at 65%, 65%, 70%, respectively

  • Exports de-grew QoQ due to effect of geopolitical crisis and reduced operation in Russian region

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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