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Elgi Equipments Ltd>
  • CMP : 623.6 Chg : -2.40 (-0.38%)
  • Target : 390.0 (26.62%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 May 2022

Beat on all fronts!

About The Stock

Elgi Equipments (Elgi) manufactures a wide range of air compressors (~92% of revenue) and automotive equipment (~8%).
 Elgi is the second largest player in the Indian air compressor market (~22% market share) and among the top eight players globally
 Expansion in new international markets to drive long term incremental growth (rest of the world contributed ~50% in FY22)

Q2FY22

Elgi reported strong Q4FY22 results higher than our estimates
 Consolidated revenues came in at ₹ 727.6 crore, up 19.2% YoY
 EBITDA margins came in at 14.6% in Q4FY22 (above our estimates of 11.1%) despite higher commodity prices and operating costs
 Consequently, PAT was at ₹ 73.1 crore, up 68.5% YoY

What should Investors do?

Elgi’s share price has grown by ~4.5x over the past six years (from ~₹ 65 in March 2016 to ~₹ 370 levels in February 2022).
 We remain long term positive on the stock and change our rating from HOLD to BUY

Target Price Valuation

We value Elgi at ₹ 390 i.e. 45x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance

Going forward, accelerated growth in international markets, new products like disrupted AB series compressors, good traction in India business to drive long term incremental growth
 We expect revenue, EBITDA to grow at CAGR of 20.5%, 27.2%, respectively, in FY22-24E owing to various cost control initiatives improving margins
 Net debt free b/s, double-digit return ratios & strong cash generation

New Stock Ideas

We also like ABB in our coverage.
 It expects operating margins to improve with increase in capacity utilisation, change in revenue mix, cost optimisation programmes and localisation
 BUY with target price of ₹ 2625

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Elgi’s standalone air compressor (domestic & direct exports compressor) grew 16.1% YoY to | 456 crore (~63% of consolidated topline). The compressor business’ performance in the domestic market exceeded expectations as demand was strong. Barring West Asian countries, Africa, Australia and South-East Asian countries that were affected by Covid lockdowns, Europe & America also saw high demand and Australia is recovering from a low base in FY22
 FY22 growth was primarily led two-third by volume and one-third by price. Road, construction, mining, textiles, dam construction did well in FY22. Elgi is planning to launch a product related to water well, which will be best in the world. Elgi will make decision on prices to recover fully the high raw material and freight costs and a decision on this will be taken by the end of next month
 Geographically India was excellent, compressors for oxygen which was strong in the middle of Q3FY22. Elgi is tapping PLI opportunity and touched base with those who have applied for it. However, it is early to say how big is the opportunity. Europe was way ahead of estimates and planned losses are lower. These planned losses will remain two more years but the same will be lower. In the US, portable compressors are used in construction industry and have grown very strong in the US markets. In Europe and US inquiry levels are pretty strong with order conversion while in Australia it is slowly picking up
 Elgi has done a capex | 35 crore in FY22, largely for machining capabilities
 The management is remaining cautiously optimistic and targeted a double digit volume growth barring global headwinds like inflation, wars and political unrest

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

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