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Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd>
  • CMP : 6,252.1 Chg : 33.35 (0.54%)
  • Target : 4,800.0 (16.79%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 May 2022

Diversified presence, launches driving growth…

About The Stock

Dr Reddy’s (DRL) portfolio includes pharmaceutical generics, APIs, custom pharmaceutical services, biosimilar and complex formulations.

  • Revenue breakup: US (35%), India (20%), Russia and CIS (14%), Europe (8%), RoW (8%), PSAI (14%) and others (2%)
  • It has 13 formulation facilities, nine API manufacturing facilities, one biologics facility and several R&D centres across the globe
Q4FY22

Revenues better than I-direct estimates primarily driven by market share gains, strong launches, productivity improvement and divestment of brands.

  • Sales were up 15% YoY to ₹ 5475 crore, adjusted for one-off at ₹ 5258 crore
  • Adjusted EBITDA (ex-one-off) was at ₹ 1089 crore, up 3% YoY with margins at 20.7% [note: adjustments for divestments of brands, impairment loss and provisioning]
  • Adjusted PAT for quarter was at ₹ 325.6 crore
What should Investors do?

Dr Reddy’s share price has grown by ~1.5x over the past three years (from ~₹ 2810 in May 2019 to ~₹ 4110 levels in May 2022).

  • We maintain BUY due to 1) visible ramp up across geographies, 2) value accretive launches schedule, 3) ability to mitigate price erosion in US base business and 4) commentary for no major hurdles in Russia-CIS business
Target Price Valuation

We value Dr Reddy’s at ₹ 4800 i.e. 21x FY24E EPS of ₹ 224.6 + NPV of ₹ 83.4 for gRevlimid.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • US pipeline: Total 87 ANDAs and three NDAs pending for approval; 44 are Para IV and 24 have first to file status. In near term, key launches in complex generics is likely to weather double digit price erosion in US
  • Capturing any further possible gains from vacuum created in Russia-CIS market due to geopolitical issues albeit in a calibrated risk-reward matrix
  • Emerging Markets & India: New high value launches and ramp up in base business remains key to offset price erosion and loss in Covid opportunities
  • Focus on cost rationalisation, especially on SG&A front and endeavour to focus on simultaneous launches across geographies
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Dr Reddy’s, in healthcare we like Sun Pharma.

  • Higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses by FY23

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1075

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 15,448.2 17,517.0 19,047.5 21,545.2 8.7 23,760.8 26,153.2 10.2
EBITDA 3,151.6 2,466.0 3,869.9 3,767.7 8.8 5,312.4 6,050.6 26.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 20.4 14.1 20.3 17.5 - 22.4 23.1 -
Adjusted PAT 1,906.3 2,026.0 1,951.6 2,128.8 10.5 3,201.8 3,738.1 32.5
EPS (Adjusted) 114.6 121.7 117.3 127.9 - 192.4 224.6 -
PE (x) 40.8 34.6 36.0 31.1 - 21.4 18.3 -
RoE (%) 13.6 13.0 11.1 11.1 - 14.7 15.0 -
RoCE (%) 10.7 9.6 13.1 13.0 - 18.3 21.3 -
- - - - - - - - -
Debt / Equity 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 - 0.1 0.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Ex-one-off Revenues and Margins in-line

  • Q4FY22 revenues grew 15% YoY to | 5475 crore driven by 55% YoY growth in Russia and CIS markets to | 920 crore majorly attributable to 1) traction in volume of base business, launch of new products, 2) price benefits and 3) income from divestment of a few non-core brands. US market grew 14% YoY to | 1997 crore due to new product launches, volume traction in some existing products being partially offset by price erosion. India revenues grew 15% YoY to | 969 crore amid volume traction in base business, new launches and non-core brand divestments. Europe business grew 12% YoY to | 444 crore primarily due to new launches being partly offset by price erosion in base business, while RoW markets were flat YoY at | 290 crore. PSAI segment posted de-growth of 5% YoY to | 756 crore on account of lower volumes and price erosion in some products. [Revenues for Q4FY22 includes license fee and service income of | 177.4 crore for sales of two anti-bacterial brands in Russia and CIS along with | 39 crore for sale of two brands in India. Adjusted revenues at | 5258.5 crore]

 

  • Gross margins declined 233 bps YoY to 65% (adjusting for one-off divestment income, gross margins at 68%) and EBITDA margins contracted 1385 bps to 8.2% (I-direct estimate of 20.4%) due to higher other expenses led by one-offs related to impairment loss and provisioning expenses. Adjusted EBITDA margins at 20.7%. Subsequently, EBITDA de-grew 57% YoY to | 451 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1035 crore). Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was | 1089 crore. PAT for the quarter was down 83% YoY to | 97 crore

 

  • Dr Reddy’s Laboratories’ Q4 revenues were better than I-direct estimates primarily driven by market share gains, strong launches, productivity improvement and divestment of brands. Profitability for the quarter was impacted by impairment loss of non-current assets (| 756.2 crore) and provisions related to Texas litigation (| 98.3 crore)

 

  • Operationally, Russia and CIS performed well amid geopolitical challenges as Q4 saw uptick in stocking while the company remains adequately hedged for the medium term. In the US, Dr Reddy’s also guiding for double digit price erosion. However, due to 17 new launches in FY22 impact was partially offset. The management is guiding for India and emerging markets to grow in double digits, going forward also, as Covid contribution in FY22 was only 4% of total revenues

 

  • Due to external challenges, some margin pressure is likely to remain in the medium term. That said, the management remains committed to working on cost rationalisation, especially on the SGN&A front and calibrating of R&D spend more towards Global Generics front & Biosimilars and lower towards proprietary products. Key growth drivers in the near term would be key launches across geographies besides continuing growth momentum in Global Generics especially in India and Russia

 

  • The board recommended a dividend of | 30 per equity share.

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The management guided for Generics and API (Horizon 1) to drive growth in near to mid-term while looking to scale up existing small sized business and creating of new business model for long term growth (Horizon 2)

 

  • North America: Growth led by new launches offset the double digit price erosion in US base business. Launched three new products: Vasopressin Injection, Nicotine Lozenges (OTC), Clobetasol Shampoo in Canada. 17 launches in FY22. Management guided for 20-25 launches in FY23. The company filed seven new ANDAs during FY22

 

  • Europe: During Q4, four launches in Germany, two each in Italy and Spain and one each in UK and France. It launched 34 new products in FY22

 

  • India: Launched eight new products and guided for double digit growth in FY23

 

  • Emerging Markets: Launched 16 new products in Q4 and 86 new products in FY22. The management has guided for no material exposure from Ukraine while due to western companies leaving Russia, the management indicated at the possibility of additional opportunities. The company has secured adequate near term hedging for Russia. Divested brands contributed | 50-60 crore in FY22 and will not have a significant impact on growth in FY23. The management guided for double digit organic growth

 

  • PSAI business: Filed 10 DMFs in the US in FY22 and three in Q4FY22

 

  • Covid contribution to Dr Reddy’s topline was ~ 4% in FY22

 

  • Gross margins: Impacted by high input cost, high US price erosion and less than 60 bps impact on gross margins due to Covid inventory provisioning

 

  • Capex guidance of | 1500-1700 crore in FY23 related to FT0-11 (injectable facility). The management guided for capex growth in biologics, going forward.
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
Revenue 5,474.9 5,062.5 4,768.2 14.8 5,338.3 2.6 YoY growth driven by market share gains, strong launches, productivity improvement and divestment of brands. Revenues for Q4FY22 includes | 177.4 crore for sales of two anti-bacterial brands in Russia and CIS along with | 39 crore for sale of two brands in India. Adjusted Revenues at | 5258.5 crore
Raw Material Expenses 1,897.8 1,771.9 1,541.5 23.1 1,814.7 4.6  
Gross Profit 3,577.1 3,290.6 3,226.7 10.9 3,523.6 1.5  
Gross margins (%) 65.3 65.0 67.7 -233.5 66.0 -67.0 YoY decline amid double digit price erosion in US and higher input cost. Adjusting for one-off divestment income, Gross margins at 68%
Employee expenses 972.6 916.4 893.0 8.9 956.3 1.7  
Other expenses 2,153.5 1,339.7 1,280.5 68.2 1,351.6 59.3  
EBITDA 451.0 1,034.6 1,053.2 -57.2 1,215.7 -62.9 Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was | 1089 crore
EBITDA (%) 8.2 20.4 22.1 -1,385.0 22.8 -1,453.6 YoY decline amid impairment loss of non-current assets (| 756.2 crore) and provisions related to Texas litigation (| 98.3 crore). Adjusted EBITDA margins at 20.7%. 
Other Income 121.9 53.1 82.6 47.6 55.8 118.5  
Interest  31.5 21.6 29.7 6.1 21.6 45.8  
Depreciation 293.0 294.2 308.8 -5.1 294.2 -0.4  
PBT 258.9 771.9 815.2 -68.2 974.2 -73.4  
Tax  161.9 209.9 257.9 -37.2 264.9 -38.9 Company recognised current tax liability of | 460.2 crore with a corresponding increase in deffered tax assets persuant to change in US income tax regulations
Net Profit 97.0 562.0 575.2 -83.1 709.3 -86.3  
Adjusted PAT 325.6 562.0 557.3 -41.6 690.8 -52.9 Adjusting for both one-off expense and income from divestment
Key Metrics              
US 1,997.1 1,951.2 1,749.1 14.2 1,864.5 7.1 YoY growrth driven by new product launches, volume traction in some existing products being partially offset by price erosion.
Europe 444.4 387.7 395.6 12.3 405.8 9.5 YoY decline due to new launches being partly offset by price erosion in base business
India 968.9 937.4 844.5 14.7 1,026.6 -5.6 YoY growth amid volume traction in base business, new launches and non-core brand divestments
Russia & Other CIS 920.0 533.7 593.0 55.1 710.0 29.6 YoY growth was on account of traction in volume of base business, launch of new products, 3) price benefits and 4) income from divestment of a few non-core brands
RoW 290.0 364.4 291.5 -0.5 440.0 -34.1  
PSAI 755.7 791.5 791.5 -4.5 727.1 3.9 YoY decline on account of lower volumes and price erosion in some products. 

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