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  • CMP : 1,272.0 Chg : -4.90 (-0.38%)
  • Target : 5,160.0 (27.60%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Mar 2022

Numbers in-line; Launches in FY23 likely drivers…

Dr Reddy’s (DRL) portfolio includes pharmaceutical generics, APIs, custom pharmaceutical services, biosimilar and complex formulations. •Revenue breakup: US (37%), India (18%), Russia and CIS (12%), Europe (8%), RoW (6%) and API (17%) •It has 13 formulation facilities, nine API manufacturing facilities, one biologics facility and several R&D centres across the globe

Q3FY22

Reported steady set of numbers despite Covid revenue vaccum this Quarter, in line with our estimates.

  • Sales were up 8% YoY to ₹ 5338.3 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 1215.7 crore, up 125.4% YoY with margins at 22.8% [Note: Base of Q3FY21 had ₹ 597.2 crore impairment cost].
  • Adjusted PAT was steady YoY at ₹ 695.8 crore
What should Investors do?

Dr Reddy’s share price has grown by ~1.4x over the past five years (from ~₹ 3018 in Jan 2017 to ~₹ 4218 levels in Jan 2022).

  • We change our view from HOLD to BUY on of favourable risk-reward matrix as we incorporate FY24 estimates with visible ramp up in Global generics and value accretive launches scheduled in FY23
Target Price Valuation

We value Dr Reddy’s at ₹ 5160 i.e. 21x FY24E EPS of ₹ 238.4 + NPV of ₹ 154.1 for gRevlimid.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • US pipeline: 88 ANDAs & 3 NDAs pending for approval; 45 are Para IV and 24 have first to file status. In near term, key launches of gCopaxone and gNuvaring likely drivers of growth along with gRevlimid launch in Q2FY23.
  • Handling of pricing pressure in US for Atrovastatin, Metoprolol, Liposomal Doxorubicin, Buprenorphine and Naloxone along with Duvvada resolution.
  • Emerging Markets & India: New high value launches and ramp up in base business remains key to offset price erosion and loss in Covid opportunities.
  • Focus on cost rationalisation, especially on SG&A front and endeavour to focus on simultaneous launches across geographies
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Dr Reddy’s, in healthcare we like Sun Pharma.

  • Higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses by FY23

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 965

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 5 Year CAGR(FY16-FY21) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Revenues 15,448.2 17,517.0 19,047.5 4.1 21,346.2 23,342.8 25,537.3 10.3
EBITDA 3,151.6 2,466.0 3,869.9 1.5 4,505.4 5,367.6 6,415.8 18.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 20.4 14.1 20.3 - 21.1 23.0 25.1 -
Adjusted PAT 1,906.3 2,026.0 1,951.6 -1.7 2,723.0 3,210.2 3,968.0 26.7
EPS (Adjusted) 114.6 121.7 117.3 - 163.6 192.9 238.4 -
PE (x) 40.8 34.6 36.0 - 25.8 21.9 17.7 -
RoE (%) 13.6 13.0 11.1 - 13.6 14.1 15.2 -
RoCE (%) 10.7 9.6 13.1 - 16.1 18.8 22.8 -
- - - - - - - - -
Debt / Equity 0.3 0.1 0.2 - 0.1 0.1 0.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY22 Results: Steady performance

  • Revenues grew 8% YoY to | 5338.3 crore driven by 45.6% YoY growth in RoW market to | 440 crore and 7.6% growth in Russia & CIS markets to | 710 crore. US revenues grew 7.2% YoY to | 1864.5 crore on back of new launches and increase in base business volume. India business grew 7% YoY to | 1026.6 crore driven by price hike in existing products and new launches while Europe revenues declined 2.1% YoY to | 405.8 crore amid price erosion in some products being partially offset by new launches. PSAI segment posted growth of 3.7% YoY to | 727.1 crore. Gross margins were flat YoY due to favourable product mix and reduction in procurement cost for certain products being offset by price erosion in base business. EBITDA margins improved 1186 bps to 22.8% due to lower employee and other expenses. Subsequently, EBITDA grew 125.4% YoY to | 1215.7 crore. [Note: Base of Q3FY21 had | 597.2 crore impairment cost]
  • Dr Reddy’s Laboratories’ Q3 revenues and margins were in line with I-direct estimates primarily driven by new launches and higher sales volume being partially offset by price erosion in base business. The management remains committed to working on cost rationalisation, especially on the SGN&A front and calibrating of R&D spend more towards Global Generics front & Biosimilars and lower towards proprietary products. Key growth drivers in the near term would be key launches across geographies besides continuing growth momentum in Global Generics in India and Russia.

 

Q3FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • North America:Driven by new launches and increase in volume of base business, which was partially offset by price erosion in some molecules.
    • Launched 4 new products: Carmustine Injection, Ephedrine Sulphate Injection, Valsartan Tablets and Venlafaxine ER Tablets.
    • Filed one new ANDAs.
  • India: Driven by increase in sales volumes of existing products and contribution from new product launches amid loss of Covid sales.
  • Emerging Markets:
    • Russia growth was on account of increase in prices in existing products and new products launches along with a favourable forex rate.
    • RoW growth traction due to new launches and higher sales volume in the base business.
  • PSAI business: Filed two DMFs in US. Guided for sequential growth going forward.
  • Gross margins improved sequentially due to favourable product mix
    • Company in talks with government to register Sputnik as a booster dose and indicated for export opportunity for Sputnik which is still not exploited.
    • R&D expense at ₹416 crores (7.8% of sales)
  • SG&A expenses at | 1541 crore (up 7% YoY) primarily due to investment in sales and marketing for key brands and annual increments.
 
Variance Analysis

  Q3FY22 Q3FY22E Q3FY21 YoY (%) Q2FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
Revenue 5,338.3 5,341.9 4,941.9 8.0 5,786.9 -7.8 YoY growth driven by new launches and higher sales volume being partially offset by price erosion in base business
Raw Material Expenses 1,814.7 1,883.0 1,637.7 10.8 2,027.6 -10.5  
Gross Profit 3,523.6 3,458.9 3,304.2 6.6 3,759.3 -6.3  
Gross margins (%) 66.0 64.8 66.9 -85.5 65.0 104.4 YoY decline amid price erosion being partially offset by favourable product mix
Employee expenses 956.3 982.0 915.7 4.4 1,010.4 -5.4  
Other expenses 1,351.6 1,270.9 1,849.2 -26.9 1,389.1 -2.7  
EBITDA 1,215.7 1,205.9 539.3 125.4 1,359.8 -10.6  
EBITDA (%) 22.8 22.6 10.9 1,186.0 23.5 -72.5 Improved YoY due to lower employee, other expenses and impairment cost OF ~ | 597 crores  in base of Q3FY21
Other Income 55.8 190.5 70.5 -20.9 205.5 -72.8  
Interest  21.6 23.4 18.8 14.9 23.4 -7.7  
Depreciation 294.2 294.1 311.2 -5.5 294.1 0.0  
PBT 974.2 1,078.9 279.8 248.2 1,272.5 -23.4  
Tax  264.9 234.6 267.0 -0.8 276.7 -4.3  
Net Profit 709.3 844.3 27.9 2,442.3 995.8 -28.8  
Adjusted PAT 695.8 844.3 699.2 -0.5 976.5 -28.7 Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to lower other income and higher interest cost
Key Metrics              
US 1,864.5 1,891.4 1,739.4 7.2 1,890.9 -1.4 YoY growrth driven by new launches, increase in base business volume, favourable forex rate being partially offset by price erosion
Europe 405.8 447.4 414.3 -2.1 413.5 -1.9 YoY decline due to price erosion in some products being partially offset by taction in new launches
India 1,026.6 1,045.4 959.1 7.0 1,140.2 -10.0 YoY growth driven by price hike in existing products and new launches partially offset by loss in Covid related sales
Russia & Other CIS 710.0 726.0 660.0 7.6 790.0 -10.1 YoY growth was on account of new product launches and favourable forex rate being partially offset by lower sales volume in base business
RoW 440.0 332.5 302.3 45.6 510.0 -13.7 YoY growth primarily driven by new launches and higher sales volume in base business being partially offset by some price erosion in base business
PSAI 727.1 785.0 700.9 3.7 837.2 -13.2 YoY growth driven by new product new launches
 
 
 

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