loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 1,272.0 Chg : -4.90 (-0.38%)
  • Target : 5,210.0 (24.05%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 Jan 2023

Overall beat boosted by gRevlimid, other launches…

About The Stock

Dr Reddy’s (DRL) portfolio includes pharmaceutical generics, APIs, custom pharmaceutical services, biosimilar and complex formulations.

  • Revenue breakup Q3FY23: US (45.1%), India (16.6%), Russia and CIS (13.4%), Europe (6.4%), RoW (5.9%), PSAI (11.5%)
  • It has 13 formulation facilities, nine API manufacturing facilities, one biologics facility and several R&D centres across the globe
Q3FY23

Revenues propelled by continued traction of gRevlimid.

  • Revenues grew 27.2% YoY to ₹ 6331 crore, mainly driven by the US on the back of favourable currency impact and gRevlimid
  • EBITDA margins grew 597 bps YoY to 28.7%
  • Adjusted PAT increased 81.1% YoY to ₹ 1251 crore
What should Investors do?

Dr Reddy’s share price has grown at 17.75% CAGR over the past three years.

  • Maintain BUY due to 1) ramp up across geographies on back of new launches, 2) strong FCF generation to be driven by gRevlimid and other niche launches and 3) calibrated cost approach based on better product mix
Target Price and Valuation

We value Dr Reddy’s at ₹ 5210 i.e. 21x FY25E EPS of ₹ 241.8+ NPV of ₹ 131 for gRevlimid.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • US pipeline: In the near term, key launches in complex generics (guidance for 25 launches in FY23) is likely to weather persisting price erosion in US along with additional impetus from gRevlimid in H2FY23. Structurally, 1) 40% of pipeline being injectable/sterile, 2) 25+ complex products and 3) select biosimilars and complex generics bodes well for the US market
  • Emerging Markets & India: New launches to offset price erosion and loss in Covid opportunities. Domestically, ramp-up of acquired assets and faster integration to increase base business
  • Easing of volatility in currency for Russia-CIS market and possible gains from inventory normalisation in H2FY23
  • Target to backward integrate 70% molecules to benefit gross margins in medium term. Immediate focus on cost rationalisation, on SG&A front and simultaneous launches across geographies
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Dr Reddy’s, in healthcare we like Sun Pharma.

  • Higher contribution from specialty and strong domestic franchise is likely to change the product mix towards more remunerative businesses by FY23
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1225

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 17,517.0 19,047.5 21,545.2 8.7 24,486.9 25,676.1 27,817.9 6.6
EBITDA 2,466.0 3,869.9 3,767.7 8.8 6,185.3 5,789.2 6,386.0 1.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 14.1 20.3 17.5 - 25.3 22.5 23.0 -
Adjusted PAT 2,026.0 1,951.6 2,112.2 10.3 4,352.4 3,576.6 4,014.0 -4.0
EPS (Adjusted) 122.0 117.6 127.2 - 262.2 215.5 241.8 -
PE (x) 34.4 34.9 31.9 - 16.0 19.5 17.4 -
RoE (%) 13.0 11.1 11.0 - 18.9 13.8 13.7 -
RoCE (%) 9.6 13.1 13.0 - 24.2 20.8 23.4 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Strong revenue growth driven by continued traction US and Russia markets

  • Revenues grew 27.2% YoY to | 6790 crore, mainly driven by growth in US market due to favourable currency impact and new launches besides gRevlimid traction. Gross margins increased ~452 bps over the previous year to 70.5% sequentially, mainly driven by product mix (including new products), accruals related to production linked incentive scheme, which was partly offset by price erosion and provision made on inventory for Covid products. EBITDA margins grew 597 bps YoY to 28.7%. Adjusted PAT increased 81.1% YoY to | 1251 crore
  • US business grew 64% YoY to | 3057 crore driven by new products launches, increase in volumes and a favourable forex movement, which was partly offset by price erosion. Europe grew 6% YoY to | 430 crore, driven by new product launches, increase in volumes that was partly offset by price erosion and adverse forex rates. India revenues grew 10% YoY at | 1127 crore, driven by increase in sales prices and new product launches, partly offset by reduction in volumes for certain products. Russia and Other CIS revenues grew 28.2 % YoY to | 910 crore, In Russia, YoY growth of 45% was on account of increase in volumes and prices, new product launches and favourable forex rates. In CIS, YoY decline of 6% was due to reduction in volumes and adverse forex movement, partly offset by increase in sales price of some products and new product launches. RoW witnessed de-growth of 9.1% YoY at | 400 crore. YoY decline of 9.1% was on account of higher base in previous year due to Covid product sales and decline in sales price of some of its key molecules, which was partly offset by new product launches
  • Dr Reddy’s numbers beat our estimates, mainly due to the surprise in the US business, which grew a massive 64% YoY due to the continued traction of gRevlimid and also the upbeat performance in Russia & CIS markets. Europe revenues were lower than our estimates, due to the price erosion is some molecules. India business grew in double digits if adjusted for the Covid growth. Pharmaceutical services and active ingredients witnessed growth due to favourable currency movements. We remain positive on the company’s growth story based on simultaneous launches across major geographies

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

North America:

  • Sales continued to grow in the US markets with positive traction seen in both base business and recent launches
    • It managed to launch five new products and expects the launch momentum to continue during remaining FY23

Europe:

  • During the quarter, it launched 11 new products across various countries within Europe

Emerging markets:

  • Russia business grew 29% YoY, 8% QoQ in constant currency terms. This strong growth was supported by higher sales of biosimilar products in Russia
  • Overall, it launched 29 products across various countries in emerging markets

India:

  • The company intends to create several growth engines for India business for Horizon 1 and Horizon 2, which includes ramping up internal portfolio, collaborations, innovation and inorganic opportunities. It launched two new products in the Indian markets during Q3FY2

PSAI business recorded sales due to improvement of the volume pick up

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar, Inter CA, Kushal Shah, CFA L1, CFP, Utkarsh Jain,MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More