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Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,811.8 Chg : -13.05 (-0.46%)
  • Target : 1,560.0 (-4.06%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

13 May 2023

Strategy to drive category growth; execution is key

About The Stock

Colgate-Palmolive (India) (CPIL) is the largest oral care company in India. The company has ~50% market share in the toothpaste category. The major brands include Colgate Strong Teeth, Colgate Total, Colgate Max-Fresh. The company is looking to drive consumption levels in rural regions & premium brands in urban India.  Recently, it has launched toothpaste for Diabetics, Colgate Visible White O2, Palmolive range in face cleansing & Visible White pen

  • Colgate has distribution reach of 6.5 million outlets. It commands very high gross margins to support existing brands & new launches through marketing spend of 12-13% of sales
Q4FY23 Results

Colgate reported domestic sales growth of 5.4% in Q4

  • Overall sales were up 3.7% YoY led by pricing growth; Volumes were flat
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 451.9 crore, up 5.2% YoY, with margins at 33.5%
  • Consequently, adjusted PAT was at ₹ 317.6 crore (down 1.8% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Colgate’s share price has underperformed FMCG index in last five years with 33% return

  • Oral care category is fully penetrated hence growth lever remain increasing per person consumption & expansion of personal care category. However, we believe execution of this strategy is essential to drive growth
  • We maintain our Hold rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹1560, valuing the business at 35x FY25 earnings.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Rural household daily usage of toothpaste is close to ~45% & urban usage of toothpaste twice a day is only ~20%. Increasing per capita consumption along with driving premiumisation in oral care category is key to growth
  • The company has strong brand equity of ‘Palmolive’ brand. However, it has not been able to leverage this brand for brand extension in personal care categories over the years. It is now expanding this brand in body wash.  
  • Gross margin is expected to remain at elevated levels of ~65% given decline in crude-based commodity prices. The company would increase ad-spends to perk up volumes across segments
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides CPIL, we like Tata Consumer in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at ₹ 980 with a BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 Year CAGR (18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (23-25E)
Total Operating Income 4,525.1 4,841.2 5,099.8 5,226.2 0.0 5,584.0 5,913.1 0.1
EBITDA 1,201.7 1,509.6 1,565.9 1,547.0 0.1 1,661.8 1,768.1 0.1
EBITDA Margin % 26.8 31.4 30.9 29.8 - 30.0 30.1 -
Net Profit 816.5 1,035.4 1,078.3 1,047.2 0.1 1,125.4 1,196.8 0.1
EPS (|) 30.0 38.1 39.6 38.5 0.1 41.4 44.0 0.1
P/E 54.2 42.7 41.0 42.2 - 39.3 37.0 -
RoNW % 51.2 88.8 62.2 61.5 - 68.4 76.5 -
RoCE (%) 60.7 106.4 77.8 79.3 - 89.6 100.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY23 Results: Commodity prices dip led to margin recovery to all time high levels…

  • Colgate witnessed revenue growth of 3.7% led by 5.4% domestic sales growth. Export sales was muted during the quarter. This growth in domestic sales was led by high single digit growth in toothpaste segment. However, tooth brush sales de-grew in Q4FY23

 

  • With softening of commodity prices, gross margin expanded sequentially by 100 bps & it remained flat on YoY basis. Employee & overhead spends were higher by 13 bps & 18 bps respectively. Marketing spends were down by 70 bps to 10.6% of sales. This was mainly due to start of major advertisement campaign for ‘Colgate Strong Teeth’ brand in Q1FY24

 

  • Stable gross margins along with cut in ad-spends resulted in operating profit growth of   5.2% to |451.9 crore. Operating margins expanded by 48 bps to 33.7%. PBT witnessed a growth of 8.4% in Q4FY23 however Net profit decline by 2.3% mainly on account of tax reversal in base quarter.

 

  • Oral care category volumes are still in declining trend mainly due to decline in rural consumption levels impacted by high inflation last year. The company has seen high single digit growth in toothpaste sales driven by strategy of driving higher consumption & premiumisation

 

  • Given penetration level of toothpaste category is near 100%, the company is focusing on driving per capita consumption. Comparing Philippines toothpaste market, India’s per capita toothpaste consumption is 0.6x of Philippines toothpaste consumption level. The diversion is even higher in rural with 0.5x whereas urban consumption level is at 0.7x. The opportunity in toothpaste market is 2x from the current market size (reaching Philippines consumption level)

 

  • Only 45% Indian rural households brush on a daily basis whereas brushing twice a day in urban household is ~20%. The company is looking to drive consumption by increasing daily brushing habits in rural & twice a day brushing habit in urban household

 

  • Tooth brush category growth has also become stagnant over the years. However, currently urban household changes brush every six months whereas rural households change brush every 15 months. Changing habits would also drive growth in tooth brush category. Toothpaste pricing is also stagnant over the years. The company is looking to drive growth in higher price point products in this category

 

  • 86% of the toothpaste market is at the price point of |110 or below. This gives immense premiumisation opportunity to the company. Similarly, in tooth brush market 63% of the market is at the price point below | 30. Moreover, 22% of the market in |30-|40 range & only 16% of the market is above | 40 price point. The | 40 price point sub-category is growing at 15% whereas below | 40 price point category is stagnant

 

  • The company is re-launching ‘Colgate Strong Teeth’ & increasing its ad-spend on the brand with positioning of new ‘Arginine technology’ for 2x stronger teeth. The company see high opportunity to grow this brand in rural regions

 

  • It has also launched ‘Visible White Teeth Whitening Pen’ in whitening oral care product category. The brand is launched exclusively through professional partners & Dentist.

 

  • Colgate max fresh penetration increased by 580 bps in 2022. The company would be doubling its ad-spends on ‘Colgate Max Fresh’. It is trying to add younger consumers with specific advertisement targeting these consumers

 

  • Naturals toothpaste category has become stagnant. This segment seen 900 bps market share gain between 2016 & 2020. However, from last three years it has become stagnant & lost 30 bps market share. Along with Ved-Shakti & Active Salt Brand, the company is still growing in this sub-category

 

  • Colgate visible white & some of its extensions are part of premium product portfolio. Penetration of whitening toothpaste is merely 1.5%. The launch of whitening pen devise is also part of driving premium product portfolio

 

  • The company would be driving growth in ‘Palmolive’ brand in bodywash personal care category with increase in distribution reach & new innovations. The category size is small with low penetration & hence the headroom for growth is much larger. Palmolive is looking leverage the category transition from soaps to body wash in premium category

 

  • CPIL has four Strategy manly (1) drive category growth in toothpaste through volumes & grow the core brands (2) propel premiumisation (2) grow toothbrush category with products at higher price points & (4) Expand Palmolive brand in bodywash category.

 

  • The company declared second interim dividend of | 21/ share. The total dividend for FY23 stands at |39 / share. 

 

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

 

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

 

 

 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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