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  • CMP : 2,112.8 Chg : 22.80 (1.09%)
  • Target : 1,690.0 (8.06%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

28 Jul 2022

Sustainable growth entails more levers (Personal care)

About the stock

Colgate-Palmolive (India) (CPIL) is the largest oral care company in India. The company has more than 50% market share in the toothpaste category. The major brands include Colgate Dental Cream, Colgate Total, Colgate Max-Fresh. With the changing consumer preference for naturals products, the company is focusing on growing Colgate Vedshakti brand. Recently, it has launched toothpaste for Diabetics, Colgate Visible White O2, Palmolive range in face cleansing category

  • Colgate has distribution reach of 6.5 million outlets. The company commands one of the highest gross margins in the industry and spends ~13% of sales on marketing to support existing brands and new launches
Q1FY23 Results

Colgate reported dismal set of numbers with 7.1% dip in earnings

  • Sales were up 2.6% YoY led by pricing growth; volume seen de-growth
  • EBITDA was at Rs 325.7 crore, dipped by 8.3% YoY, with margins at 27.2%

Consequently, adjusted PAT was at Rs 216.6 crore (down 7.1% YoY)

What should Investors do?

Colgate’s share price has underperformed FMCG index in last five years with of 47% (from Rs 1070 in July 2017 to Rs 1564 in July 2022)

  • We expect commodities to cool off in next few months & margins, volumes to recover in H2FY23 with grammage reduction in smaller SKUs. However, CPIL require more lever for long term sustainable growth

We maintain our Hold rating on the stock

Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 1690, valuing the business at 38x FY24 earnings

Key triggers for future price performance
  • Innovation & new launches in whitening toothpaste, naturals, Ayurveda & therapeutic toothpaste category help sustaining moderate volume growth in longer run. However, near term growth is only contributed by price hikes
  • CPIL saw 460 bps operating margin expansion in FY21. With sharp increase in packaging cost, operating margins have peaked out in the medium term
  • The company has launched products in face cleansing category. We believe CPIL require aggressive approach to growth personal care category given oral care category has been saturated with 95% penetration
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides CPIL, we like Tata Consumer in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at Rs 910 with a BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 4,525.1 4,841.2 5,099.8 2.4 5,493.3 5,945.9 - 8.0
EBITDA 1,201.7 1,509.6 1,565.9 10.7 1,636.0 1,782.7 - 6.7
EBITDA Margin % 26.6 31.2 30.7 - 29.8 30.0 - -
Net Profit 816.5 1,035.4 1,078.3 13.3 1,104.0 1,207.8 - 5.8
EPS (Rs) 30.0 38.1 39.6 13.3 40.6 44.4 - 5.8
P/E 52.1 41.1 39.5 - 38.5 35.2 - -
RoNW % 51.2 88.8 62.2 - 64.1 69.6 - -
RoCE (%) 60.7 106.4 77.8 - 84.1 91.2 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1FY23 Results: Volumes, margins to recoup in H2FY23; Long term growth depends on success in personal care category

  • Net sales witnessed mere 2.6% growth to Rs 1196.8 crore led by pricing growth. We believe steep commodity inflation has resulted in volume de-growth as the company has not tweaked prices of smaller SKUs but reduced grammage. The decline in volumes would have been more prominent in rural regions
  • Given elevated crude prices & subsequent increase in packaging cost, gross margin contracted by 282 bps. Employee spends & marketing spends were slightly down by 32 bps & 12 bps respectively. However, overhead spends were up by 86 bps. The marketing spends were up by 230 bps sequentially despite continued gross margin pressure. Subsequently, operating profit declined by 8.3% to Rs 325.7 crore. Operating margins contracted by 325 bps to 27.2%.
  • With contraction in operating margins & exceptional expense of Rs 9.3 crore (due to certain organisation structure changes), net profit witnessed a de-growth of 10.1% to Rs 209.7 crore. Other income more than doubled to Rs 11.5 crore. Adjusting for exceptional expense, net profit de-grew by 7.1% to Rs 216.6 crore
  • Prabha Narasimhan will join Colgate-Palmolive (India) Limited as Managing Director and CEO effective September 1, 2022.
  • Oral care category penetration in India is 95% however only 20% people brush twice a day. Though, the opportunity in oral care is large considering potential of increasing consumption through brushing twice a day, but habit change is very difficult & it would take a generation to increase twice brushing population. We believe oral care category would grow at mid-single digit in the long term
  • The company is continuing its innovation drive by launching products like Colgate Visible White O2, Colgate Gum Expert & Palmolive face care range of products in FY22. The company also re-launched Colgate strong teeth & Colgate Ved-Shakti last year.
  • We believe market share gain in Ayurveda, Natural toothpaste category & faster growth in personal care category is important for the sustainable long term growth for the company. Moreover, with the high penetration levels & slower conversion of ‘brushing twice a day’ population, oral care category is largely dependent on premiumisation trend for growth.
  • CPIL has launched many face cleansing products under Palmolive brand such as face forms, masques & Scrubs. We believe the company is required to spend more on marketing & leverage its distribution network to grow the brand.
  • Colgate has not passed on entire inflation & has not tweaked Rs 10 & Rs 20 price points. It is focusing on LUPs (Low unit packs), Cibaca & Colgate Strong teeth brands to drive long term growth
  • The ecommerce business for Colgate has grown 10x in last five years. It has gained market share by 70bps in modern trade channel
High raw material inflation has not only adversely impacted margins for FMCG companies but it has also slowed down demand conditions in rural & semi-urban regions as consumers are down trading towards smaller SKUs & economy brands. Moreover, oral care is saturated category with 95% penetration & slower rate of habit change of brushing twice a day is also resulting in muted growth in the category. In last one decade, Ayurveda & naturals oral care sub-category is growing faster than white toothpaste & the company is trying to increase its market share in the space with Colgate Ved-Shakti Brand. However, we believe the company is required to aggressively expand its footprint in personal care category with new launches & higher marketing spends. CPIL has strong distribution network & it can leverage it to expand personal care product portfolio. We remain cautious on future growth in the oral care category. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with the revised target price of Rs 1690/share (Rs 1700 / earlier).

Terms & conditions and Other disclosures

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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