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  • CMP : 2,092.1 Chg : -68.30 (-3.16%)
  • Target : 1,440.0 (-0.76%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Jan 2023

Dismal growth continues…

About The Stock

Colgate-Palmolive (India) (CPIL) is the largest oral care company in India. The company has more than 50% market share in the toothpaste category. The major brands include Colgate Dental Cream, Colgate Total, Colgate Max-Fresh. With the changing consumer preference for naturals products, the company is focusing on growing Colgate Vedshakti brand. Recently, it has launched toothpaste for Diabetics, Colgate Visible White O2, Palmolive range in face cleansing category

  • Colgate has distribution reach of 6.5 million outlets. It commands very high gross margins to support existing brands & new launches through marketing spend of ~13% of sales
Q3FY23 Results

Colgate reported weak set of numbers with flat sales growth

  • Sales were up 0.9% YoY led by pricing growth; volume seen de-growth
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 361.5 crore, dip by 5% YoY, with margins at 28%
  • Consequently, adjusted PAT was at ₹ 243.2 crore (down 3.6% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Colgate’s share price has underperformed FMCG index in last five years with 30% return

  • Oral care category has been one of the laggard category meagre growth largely led by premiumisation & pricing growth. The company is required to expand non-oral care product portfolio to drive growth
  • We maintain our Hold rating on the stock  
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹1440, valuing the business at 35x FY25 earnings.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company is requiring to expand addressable market by foraying in other personal care categories. Oral care category is saturated & it is expected to grow volumes in low single digit in the long run 
  • Gross margin is expected to remain at elevated levels of ~65% given decline in crude based commodity prices. The company would increase ad-spends to perk up volumes specifically in natural & ayurveda space
  • In natural & Ayurveda toothpaste space, competition has taken pole position & CPIL is require increase its presence in natural space given accelerated pace of consumption shift from white to natural toothpaste
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides CPIL, we like Tata Consumer in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at ₹ 950 with a BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Yr CAGR (22-25E)
Total Operating Income 4,525.1 4,841.2 5,099.8 0.0 5,252.0 5,582.4 5,912.9 0.1
EBITDA 1,201.7 1,509.6 1,565.9 0.1 1,524.4 1,623.7 1,682.0 0.0
EBITDA Margin % 26.8 31.4 30.9 - 29.2 29.3 28.6 -
Net Profit 816.5 1,035.4 1,078.3 0.1 1,026.7 1,095.2 1,133.0 0.0
EPS (|) 30.0 38.1 39.6 0.1 37.7 40.3 41.7 0.0
P/E 48.3 38.1 36.6 - 38.4 36.0 34.8 -
RoNW % 51.2 88.8 62.2 - 62.4 70.9 76.5 -
RoCE (%) 60.7 106.4 77.8 - 81.9 92.8 99.9 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q3FY23 Results: Dismal volumes; Expansion in new category is need of the hour

  • Colgate reported weak set of results with flat revenue at |1291.3 crore during the quarter. Domestic revenue saw a growth of 2.3% whereas exports declined in Q3FY23.

 

  • The oral care category has been saturated with penetration levels reaching more than 90% in both Urban & Rural regions. Moreover, growth in the category is only contributed by naturals & ayurveda sub-category. The company reported 1.9% sales growth during 9mFY23.

 

  • The company Partnered with Andhra Pradesh government to start Oral health awareness program of ‘Bright Smile Bright Future’ from Nallore district during the quarter.

 

  • It also launched an e-commerce platform ‘detistfirst.co.in’ for dentist to enable them access to specialty Colgate products

 

  • Gross margin contracted by 73 bps on YoY basis however improved 210 bps sequentially given crude related commodity prices have sharply declined during the quarter.

 

  • Marketing spends increased by 137 bps to 13.2% of sales whereas employee & overhead spends were down by 20bps & 17bps (% of sales) in Q3. Operating profit dipped by 5% to | 361.5 crore. Operating margin contracted by 174 bps to 28%. Net profit was down by 3.6% to | 243.2 crore

 

  • The company has been focusing on driving premiumisation in oral care category with their new launches like Colgate Visible White O2 & Colgate Diabetics toothpaste.

 

  • Colgate has also been focusing on propelling growth through naturals oral care products under Ved-Shakti brand. However, peer companies in the category have been gaining market share in last 5 years

Disclaimer

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