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Plastic piping players - Revival trends from December 2025 trough

ICICIdirect Research 04 Mar 2026 DISCLAIMER

PVC prices on an uptrend – PVC prices have emerged from historical lows seen during December 2025 aided by China’s suspension of 13% export tax rebate from April 2026. (Note: China PVC resin imports comprised 42% and 31% of total imports during FY25 and FY24 respectively). Consequently, Chinese PVC prices have risen over 8% from the December 2025 trough. Subsequently, India’s domestic PVC prices have risen ~9% since December 2025 (RIL’s PVC prices have risen ~9% from ~₹ 70/kg in December 2025 to ~₹ 78/kg). The rise in PVC prices has prompted dealer re-stocking improving volume growth outlook for the plastic piping industry players. Further, the rise in PVC prices may lead to inventory gains thereby improving EBITDA margins and net earnings growth.

Budget reinforces its focus on housing/ Jal Jeevan Mission – India had been witnessing lower outlay towards PMAY (Urban & Rural) and Jal Jeevan Mission during FY25 and FY26 versus the budgeted allocations.

PMAY Urban saw spends of ₹ 5865 crore (down 81% Vs Budgeted estimate) in FY25 and allocation of ₹ 7900 crore (down 69% Vs BE) in FY26.

Similarly, PMAY Rural spends in FY25 stood at ₹ 32327 crore (down 41% Vs BE) in FY25 and allocation of ₹ 32500 crore (down 41% Vs BE) in FY26.

JJM spends in FY25 stood at ₹ 22615 crore (down 68% Vs BE) in FY25 and allocation of ₹ 17000 crore (down 75% Vs BE) in FY26.

For FY27, Budgeted allocation towards PMAY Urban, PMAY Rural and JJM stands at ₹ 22025 crore (up 179% Vs FY26 revised estimates), ₹ 54917 crore (up 69% Vs FY26RE) and ₹ 67670 crore (up 298% Vs FY26RE) highlighting government’s continued focus on reviving investments in these schemes. The same is expected to aid demand for plastic piping industry during FY27.

Preferred Stocks

Astral (CMP - ₹ 1675, PT - ₹ 1900)

Astral had reported strong ~17% YoY volume growth in Q3FY26 (~12% YoY growth during 9MFY26) gaining market share. It witnessed over 20+% YoY growth during January-February 2026. The company is likely to witness higher volume growth along with sequential improvement in EBITDA margins during Q4FY26. It maintained double digit volume growth guidance (16-18% EBITDA margins) for Plumbing in FY26. Its Adhesives/Bathware/Paints business is expected to grow its revenues by ~15% YoY/ 20-25% YoY/ 20%+ YoY in FY26. Adhesives is expected to maintain 15-16% EBITDA margins. Bathware is expected to contribute positively in EBITDA from FY27 while Paints to improve operational performance gradually. We estimate its consolidated Revenues/EBITDA/PAT to grow at ~13%/16%/18% CAGR over FY2025-FY2028E. We have a Buy rating on the stock with a Target Price of ₹ 1900/- i.e. 60x P/E on FY28E.

Supreme Industries (CMP - ₹ 4000, PT - ₹ 4400)

The company has guided for 15-17% YoY plastic piping volume growth for FY26 (+12.7% YoY in 9MFY26) and overall volume growth of 12-14% (+10% YoY in 9MFY26). For FY27, it expects 70% capacity utilization for 1 million tonne plastic piping capacity, implying 13-15% YoY volume growth. Consolidated EBITDA margins are expected at 13.5-14% (earlier 14.5-15%) for FY26 (12.1% in 9MFY26 affected by ₹ 100-120 crore inventory losses). The company stays on track to cross 1 million tonne plastic piping capacity by FY26 end with overall capacity reaching ~1.2 million tonnes. It is planning to start work on two greenfield plants in FY27 having 1 lakh tonne capacity, which are expected to come onstream in FY28. We estimate its Revenues/EBITDA/PAT to grow at ~11%/13%/11% CAGR over FY2025-FY2028E. We have a BUY rating with a Target Price of ₹ 4400/- i.e. 45x P/E on H1FY28E.

Prince Pipes and Fittings (CMP - ₹ 251, PT - ₹ 370)

The company is expected to post double digit volume growth for Q4FY26 (9MFY27 volume growth at 2% YoY) with rising PVC prices, prompting dealer restocking. Further, it remains confident of achieving double digit volume growth for FY27, driven by industry consolidation, better price parity with unorganized players and higher CPVC penetration. It conservatively guided EBITDA margins (ex-Bathware) of 10-12% for FY27, supported by de-centralisation of plants, better product mix and operating leverage. In Bathware, it expects to achieve breakeven (₹ 18 crore loss in 9MFY26) in Q3FY27. We estimate its Revenues/EBITDA/PAT to grow at ~8%/33%/62% CAGR over FY2025-FY2028E. We have a BUY rating with a Target Price of ₹ 370/- i.e. 23x P/E on FY28E

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